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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 25, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 16
It turned at Q2 8:08, 3rd and 5, on Kyle Hamilton — 18.3 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:08 · 3rd and 5
Kyle Hamilton
Ravens
(8:08) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton (44-M.Humphrey) at SF 32. 14-K.Hamilton to SF 35 for -3 yards (23-C.McCaffrey). PENALTY on SF-23-C.McCaffrey, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.
Baltimore Ravens 33–19. Biggest swing: Q2 8:08, Ravens +18.3% win probability on one snap.
18.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 5 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Ravens at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(8:08) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton (44-M.Humphrey) at SF 32. 14-K.Hamilton to SF 35 for -3 yards (23-C.McCaffrey). PENALTY on SF-23-C.McCaffrey, Chop Block
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Gus Edwards's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:38 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
49erssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+20–211 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 62 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against 49ers’s 68 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 7, 49ers 5.
49ers outgained Ravens 429-344 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's blitz rate sent, 41.0%, is past their previous high of 37.8% in week 3 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
SF's sack or hit rate, 7.7%, is past their previous low of 10.5% in week 14 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
SF's early-down pass rate, 70.6%, sat 20.4 points above their season number of 50.2% — they passed early by 2.0 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens6.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.3 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 62 snaps
49ers1.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 78%
Tendencies room →Ravens60.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 50 early downs
49ers70.6%off script — passed early · +20.4 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+2.00× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 43%
Tendencies room →Ravens15.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
49ers13.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 65%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 16.7%.
49ers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Ravens21.6%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
49ers41.0%leaned — sent pressure · +20.1 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Ravens17.6%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
49ers7.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
SF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.6%, 20.4 points above their season mean of 50.2% and 2.0 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
18/32, 255 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT
-18.1 expected points added · -10.0% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
23/35, 252 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
4.9 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Brandon Aiyuk banked 5.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.1 | +1.4 | 100% | 98% | 23% | 2% | 14 car, 103 yd, 1 TD · 6/10, 28 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 22.6 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/35, 252 yd, 2 TD · 7 car, 45 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.2 | +0.4 | 78% | 87% | 38% | 36% | 9/13, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 19.6 | +2.3 | 89% | 86% | 23% | 33% | 7/10, 126 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.3 | +5.6 | 94% | 90% | 16% | 26% | 6/7, 113 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB | 14.0 | +3.0 | 43% | 33% | 3% | 5% | 9 car, 31 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 39 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +2.3 | 54% | 59% | 12% | 8% | 3/4, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.4 | −11.8 | 96% | 92% | 27% | 22% | 2 car, 7 yd · 4/12, 47 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Committee Back | 8.7 | −1.4 | 62% | 64% | 9% | 0% | 10 car, 26 yd · 3/3, 31 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +1.3 | 74% | 82% | 12% | 30% | 3/4, 56 yd |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +5.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sam DarnoldQB | 6.1 | −3.7 | 27% | — | 0% | — | 8/14, 81 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 9 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.7 | 54% | 62% | 9% | 11% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.9 | 29% | 13% | 3% | 10% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −3.6 | 54% | 46% | 12% | 12% | 1/4, 14 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 2.4 | −8.7 | 73% | — | 0% | — | 18/32, 255 yd, 4 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.5 | −1.5 | 40% | 35% | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Willie SneadWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.2 | 36% | 35% | 5% | 4% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | −2.9 | 41% | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:22) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey (21-B.Stephens) at BAL 44. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 47 for 3 yards (13-B.Purdy).
Q2 14:22 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at BAL 37 · gained nothing · -6.03 EP · −17.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 94 yards from the BAL 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Ravens0
49ers2Ravens049ers5Ravens349ers5How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Ravens949ers5Ravens1049ers5How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Ravens1349ers5How the play was built
A man in motion.
Ravens1349ers11Ravens1349ers12How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Ravens1649ers12Ravens2249ers12Ravens2349ers12How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Ravens2949ers12Ravens3049ers12Ravens3349ers12Ravens3349ers18Ravens3349ers19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 23/35 | 252 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Gus Edwards | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Justice Hill | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 9 | 13 | 72 | 1 | 38% | +4.5 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 12% | +3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon Stephens |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 18/32 | 255 | 0 | 4 | 2 | −18.1 |
| Sam Darnold | 8/14 | 81 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −0.6 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_16_BAL_SF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 3% | +2.9 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 12% | −1.0 |
| Odell Beckham | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | +0.9 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 12% | −0.9 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 103 | 7.4 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 7 | 10 | 126 | 0 | 23% | +1.0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 7 | 113 | 0 | 16% | +9.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 12 | 47 | 0 | 27% | −11.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 23% | −11.0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 2% | +2.9 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −1.4 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Randy Gregory | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
