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2023 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 25, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

33

San Francisco 49ers

19

SF -6.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 33–19. Biggest swing: Q2 8:08, BAL +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑BAL ↓
Q2 · 8:08BAL 10 — SF 5SF ball · 3rd & 5SF 59%

(8:08) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton (44-M.Humphrey) at SF 32. 14-K.Hamilton to SF 35 for -3 yards (23-C.McCaffrey). PENALTY on SF-23-C.McCaffrey, Chop Block

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 8:08BAL +18% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton (44-M.Humphrey) at SF 32. 14-K.Hamilton to SF 35 for -3 yards (23-C.McCaffrey). PENALTY on SF-23-C.McCaffrey, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.
  2. Q3 · 12:07BAL +13% win prob(12:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Queen (98-T.Jones) [98-T.Jones] at SF 30. 6-P.Queen to SF 9 for 21 yards (55-J.Feliciano, 71-T.Williams).
  3. Q2 · 4:11SF +12% win prob(4:11) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle pushed ob at BAL 9 for 39 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
  4. Q2 · 0:24SF +11% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end to SF 11 for 30 yards (27-J.Brown).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:31SF Safety

    (10:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on BAL-8-L.Jackson, Intentional Grounding, 20 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY.

    Score after this play: BAL 0 — SF 2
  2. Q1 · 6:03SF Field goal

    (6:03) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: BAL 0 — SF 5
  3. Q1 · 1:01BAL Field goal

    (1:01) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — SF 5
  4. Q2 · 9:38BAL Touchdown

    (9:38) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — SF 5
  5. Q2 · 7:07BAL Field goal

    (7:07) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 13 — SF 5
  6. Q2 · 3:29SF Touchdown

    (3:29) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 13 — SF 12
  7. Q2 · 0:04BAL Field goal

    (:04) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 16 — SF 12
  8. Q3 · 12:13BAL Touchdown

    (12:13) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 15-N.Agholor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 23 — SF 12
  9. Q3 · 11:52BAL Touchdown

    (11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 30 — SF 12
  10. Q3 · 2:43BAL Field goal

    (2:43) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 33 — SF 12
  11. Q4 · 6:23SF Touchdown

    (6:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-R.Bell for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 33 — SF 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavens49ers
Offensive plays6268
Total yards344429 (edge)
Yards per play5.56.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.06 (edge)-0.23
Success rate45% (edge)43%
Dropback rate63%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.140.14 (edge)
Third downs4/116/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)59 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1819 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)5

49ers outgained Ravens 429–344 but lost the turnover battle 5–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

18/32, 255 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-18.1 expected points added · -10.0% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

23/35, 252 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.9 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

14 att, 103 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

7 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

7/10 for 126 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

6/7 for 113 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 31521:01Punt
2SFSF 115742:20Interception
3BALBAL 84121:15Safety
4SFSF 2111474:26Field goal +3
5BALBAL 259285:01Field goal +3
6SFSF 255381:41Interception
7BALBAL 4712534:41Touchdown +7
8SFSF 25451:41Interception
9BALSF 204-30:51Field goal +3
10SFSF 338673:40Touchdown +7
11BALBAL 2512843:23Field goal +3
12SFSF 25551:43Punt
13BALSF 444441:10Touchdown +7
14SFSF 25200:15Interception
15BALSF 9290:03Touchdown +7
16SFSF 167242:28Punt
17BALBAL 511896:42Field goal +3
18SFSF 258392:52Turnover on downs
19BALBAL 47684:23Punt
20SFSF 1013904:05Touchdown +7
21BALBAL 29521:44Punt
22SFSF 3613403:35Interception
23BALBAL 223161:00End of game

10 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson23/352522024.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson7456.401.3
Gus Edwards9313.410.5
Justice Hill10262.60-2.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers91372138%4.5
Isaiah Likely3456012%3.0
Gus Edwards113903%2.9
Justice Hill333109%1.4
Charlie Kolar111703%0.8
Rashod Bateman1414012%-1.0
Odell Beckham231309%0.9
Nelson Agholor3410112%-0.9
Patrick Ricard01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith260.000
Marcus Williams420.011
Patrick Queen150.011
Brandon Stephens410.002
Kyle Hamilton320.023
Nnamdi Madubuike310.000
Ronald Darby310.000
Geno Stone120.000
Kyle Van Noy121.000
Marlon Humphrey210.012

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy18/32255042-18.1
Sam Darnold8/1481112-0.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey141037.412.4
Sam Darnold199.000.7
Deebo Samuel273.50-0.3
Brock Purdy122.000.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle710126023%1.0
Brandon Aiyuk67113016%9.5
Deebo Samuel41247027%-11.1
Christian McCaffrey61028023%-11.0
Ronnie Bell111212%2.9
Willie Snead12505%-1.4
Kyle Juszczyk12505%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw2100.000
Fred Warner450.002
Tashaun Gipson510.000
Ji'Ayir Brown320.000
Ambry Thomas400.001
Charvarius Ward310.000
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles210.000
Randy Gregory210.500
Javon Hargrave211.000
Nick Bosa200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -6.5
Closing total
47.5
BAL moneyline
+275
SF moneyline
-345

49ers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
56°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
BAL 8 days · SF 8 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Kyle Shanahan