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2023 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 23, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

24

Los Angeles Chargers

22

BUF -13 no coverO 44.5 ✓Dome

Buffalo Bills 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:19, BUF +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑BUF ↓
Q4 · 7:19BUF 21 — LAC 19BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 85%

(7:19) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at BUF 30, RECOVERED by LAC-95-N.Williams at BUF 32.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 7:19BUF +23% win prob(7:19) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at BUF 30, RECOVERED by LAC-95-N.Williams at BUF 32.
  2. Q4 · 2:34LAC +14% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to LAC 13 for 15 yards (37-J.Hawkins).
  3. Q4 · 5:30LAC +13% win prob(5:30) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
  4. Q1 · 0:21LAC +13% win prob(:21) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to BUF 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harty to BUF 33 for 3 yards (24-A.Finley; 36-J.Taylor). FUMBLES (24-A.Finley), RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at BUF 27. Penalty on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Offensive Holding, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:35LAC Field goal

    (6:35) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BUF 0 — LAC 3
  2. Q2 · 13:54LAC Touchdown

    (13:54) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 0 — LAC 10
  3. Q2 · 9:12BUF Touchdown

    (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — LAC 10
  4. Q2 · 0:41BUF Touchdown

    (:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — LAC 10
  5. Q3 · 7:26LAC Field goal

    (7:26) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — LAC 13
  6. Q3 · 1:32BUF Touchdown

    (1:32) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 21 — LAC 13
  7. Q4 · 12:40LAC Field goal

    (12:40) 11-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BUF 21 — LAC 16
  8. Q4 · 7:23LAC Field goal

    (7:23) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BUF 21 — LAC 19
  9. Q4 · 5:30LAC Field goal

    (5:30) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: BUF 21 — LAC 22
  10. Q4 · 0:31BUF Field goal

    (:31) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: BUF 24 — LAC 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBillsChargers
Offensive plays5265
Total yards335 (edge)270
Yards per play6.4 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)-0.09
Success rate40% (edge)35%
Dropback rate44%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.43 (edge)-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.21-0.18 (edge)
Third downs5/10 (edge)4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)45 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1616
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers20 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/21, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

10.0 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Easton StickQB

23/33, 215 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

20 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-8.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

15 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

4/6 for 130 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Josh PalmerWR

5/8 for 47 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · -1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 257161:48Punt
2LACLAC 814906:40Field goal +3
3BUFBUF 167253:02Punt
4LACLAC 155-23:26Punt
5LACBUF 275271:15Touchdown +7
6BUFBUF 257253:06Punt
7LACLAC 4471:31Punt
8BUFBUF 432570:10Touchdown +7
9LACLAC 89224:33Punt
10BUFBUF 379633:51Touchdown +7
11LACLAC 25260:38End of half
12LACLAC 257102:14Punt
13BUFBUF 10230:38Interception
14LACLAC 428414:46Field goal +3
15BUFBUF 2512755:54Touchdown +7
16LACLAC 2512463:52Field goal +3
17BUFBUF 25523:20Punt
18LACBUF 486261:57Field goal +3
19BUFBUF 25250:09Fumble
20LACBUF 32411:44Field goal +3
21BUFBUF 2514644:58Field goal +3
22LACLAC 304-40:28End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen15/2123711110.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook20703.50-8.5
Leonard Fournette5204.000.0
Josh Allen5153.022.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Gabe Davis46130129%7.3
Khalil Shakir3345014%4.8
Stefon Diggs5829038%-0.8
Dawson Knox2226010%1.6
Dalton Kincaid127010%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Benford520.001
Taylor Rapp420.000
Gregory Rousseau420.000
Terrel Bernard421.000
Rasul Douglas501.000
Taron Johnson410.002
Jordan Poyer320.000
Linval Joseph120.000
Tyrel Dodson300.000
Ed Oliver212.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Easton Stick23/33215005-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler15654.30-1.0
Easton Stick7253.61-1.3
Derius Davis188.000.4
Quentin Johnston111.00-0.5
Isaiah Spiller210.50-1.5
Joshua Kelley1-2-2.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Palmer5847025%-1.7
Gerald Everett7842025%2.2
Alex Erickson223106%2.8
Quentin Johnston2529016%1.0
Stone Smartt112303%2.5
Austin Ekeler3421013%-0.4
Jalen Guyton121206%0.8
Derius Davis11603%-0.3
Isaiah Spiller11403%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James430.000
Jaylinn Hawkins410.001
Nicholas Williams230.000
Kenneth Murray310.000
Tuli Tuipulotu310.500
Michael Davis310.000
Alohi Gilman210.011
Otito Ogbonnia120.000
Khalil Mack210.000
Eric Kendricks210.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -13
Closing total
44.5
BUF moneyline
-800
LAC moneyline
+550

Bills closed -13, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 46 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
BUF 6 days · LAC 9 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Giff Smith