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Buffalo Bills 24 at Los Angeles Chargers 22. Final.
Bills -13 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Buffalo Bills 24, Chargers 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 7:19, 1st and 10, on James Cook — 22.9 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:19 · 1st and 10
James Cook
Chargers
(7:19) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at BUF 30, RECOVERED by LAC-95-N.Williams at BUF 32.
Dome
Bills closed -13, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:19, Chargers +22.9% win probability on one snap.
22.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cameron DickerChargersQ4 5:30(5:30) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
13.0pts
Khalil ShakirBillsQ4 2:34(2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to LAC 13 for 15 yards (37-J.Hawkins).
14.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Bills at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 14 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.09 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 28.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 48 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Bills159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(7:19) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at BUF 30, RECOVERED by LAC-95-N.Williams at BUF 32.
Swing +22.9 for ChargersExpected points +5.15 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 15 points higher than the market did.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:19BUF +23% win prob(7:19) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at BUF 30, RECOVERED by LAC-95-N.Williams at BUF 32.
4th · 2:34LAC +14% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to LAC 13 for 15 yards (37-J.Hawkins).
4th · 5:30LAC +13% win prob(5:30) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
1st · 0:21LAC +13% win prob(:21) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to BUF 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harty to BUF 33 for 3 yards (24-A.Finley; 36-J.Taylor). FUMBLES (24-A.Finley), RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at BUF 27. Penalty on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 9:12LAC +12% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:56LAC +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 29-yard field goal with 0:31 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:35Cameron Dicker·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+30–3
4th12:40Cameron Dicker·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+321–16
4th7:23Cameron Dicker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+321–19
4th5:30Cameron Dicker·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+321–22
4th0:31Tyler Bass·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+324–22
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryChargers
Bills6–2Chargers
335Total yards270
6.4Yards per play4.2
40%Success rate35%
50%Third-down rate29%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays5
16First downs16
1Sacks taken5
2Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Bills: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.09Chargers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.43Bills: +0.43 expected points added per play
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Bills: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.18Chargers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 52 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Chargers’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Chargers 3.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, −16.1 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's early-down pass rate, 35.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 5.1 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Chargers4.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -16.1 pts, 16.3 points below their season mean of 0.3 pts and 1.8 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Cook up−29% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:19) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 30 for 5 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at BUF 30, RECOVERED by LAC-95-N.Williams at BUF 32.
Q4 7:19 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 25 · gained 5 · -5.15 EP · −28.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 90 yards from the LAC 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
35%
Yards
605
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.0862%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2755%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1056%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8+0.5813%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 41
Bills0Chargers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Bills 2
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 42
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 17
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Bills0Chargers9
Bills0Chargers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 1
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 43
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chargers 11
Bills6Chargers10
Bills7Chargers10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 32
Bills13Chargers10
Bills14Chargers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Chargers 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Bills 40
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 13
Bills14Chargers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Bills 16
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bills20Chargers13
Bills21Chargers13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chargers 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 36
4th quarter53 plays
Bills21Chargers16
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 38 to the Bills 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 30
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bills21Chargers19
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Bills 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Bills21Chargers22
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 23
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bills24Chargers22
Field goal17 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chargers 10
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, two linebackers and eight backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
