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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 23, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 16
It turned at Q1 10:57, 2nd and 4, on George Pickens — 16.5 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 34–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:57, Steelers +16.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:57 · 2nd and 4
George Pickens
Steelers
(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
George Pickens's 86-yard touchdown catch with 10:57 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
George Pickens86-yd TD catch86-yard touchdown catchfrom Mason RudolphLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 62 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Steelers’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Steelers 5.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.8 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
CIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.6% in week 15 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals5.9 ptsright on their number · +0.2 vs their 5.7 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 61 snaps
Steelers2.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.5 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 90%
Tendencies room →Bengals69.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 63.1%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 46 early downs
Steelers40.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 37%
Tendencies room →Bengals10.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Steelers17.2%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Bengals66.7%leaned — went for it · +37.1 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −28.2 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 58%
Tendencies room →Bengals31.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 24.6%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Steelers17.4%inside their normal wobble · −11.2 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 35%
Tendencies room →Bengals10.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Steelers17.4%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 37.1 points above their season mean of 29.6% and 1.8 times their own 20.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
28/42, 335 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-7.6 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
17/27, 290 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.3 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
4/6 for 195 yds, 2 TD
24% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Pickens banked 25.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George PickensWR · Featured Receiver | 35.5 | +25.5 | 78% | 90% | 24% | 45% | 4/6, 195 yd, 2 TD |
| Tee HigginsWR · Featured Receiver | 25.0 | +12.8 | 81% | 89% | 20% | 35% | 5/8, 140 yd, 1 TD |
| Mason RudolphQB · Starter QB | 20.0 | +6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/27, 290 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.8 | +2.9 | 44% | 24% | 0% | — | 19 car, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake BrowningQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/42, 335 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +0.7 | 80% | 85% | 18% | 18% | 5/7, 59 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 10.4 | −2.3 | 58% | 79% | 24% | 0% | 8 car, 24 yd · 5/6, 30 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.0 | −4.1 | 59% | 54% | 10% | 0% | 11 car, 43 yd · 2/4, 7 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +0.6 | 41% | 30% | 10% | 9% | 4/4, 37 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −4.3 | 72% | 76% | 20% | 34% | 4/8, 36 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | −0.4 | 68% | 62% | 16% | 12% | 4/4, 36 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +2.8 | 55% | 52% | 8% | 0% | 3/3, 38 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +1.0 | 19% | 24% | 8% | 21% | 1 car, 7 yd, 1 TD · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Chase BrownRB | 4.4 | +0.3 | 22% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 4 car, 16 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 3.5 | −5.6 | 63% | 69% | 20% | 26% | 2/5, 15 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 49% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 23% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | 29% | 17% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.2 | 50% | 63% | 5% | 4% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:57 · Steelers · 2nd & 4 at PIT 14 · gained 86 · +6.67 EP · +15.3% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 92 yards from the PIT 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bengals0
Steelers6Bengals0Steelers7Bengals0Steelers13Bengals0Steelers14Bengals0Steelers20Bengals0Steelers21Bengals0Steelers24Bengals6Steelers24Bengals8Steelers24Bengals8Steelers30Bengals8Steelers31Bengals11Steelers31Bengals11Steelers34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 28/42 | 335 | 1 | 3 | 3 | −7.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Jake Browning |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 8 | 140 | 1 | 20% | +5.3 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 2 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dax Hill | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 17/27 | 290 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +8.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_16_CIN_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 45 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| −2.3 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 8% | +1.5 |
| Trenton Irwin | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10% | +2.9 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 20% | −1.9 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| Charlie Jones | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Germaine Pratt | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Turner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 19 | 78 | 4.1 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 6 | 195 | 2 | 24% | +13.5 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 16% | +0.9 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 24% | +0.6 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 20% | −2.4 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Calvin Austin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Rowe | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Mykal Walker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Miles Killebrew | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Robinson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Herbig | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
