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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Bengals151 of 160 plays carry both curves
(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.5 for SteelersExpected points +6.67 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 17 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:57PIT +17% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:12CIN +16% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Peterson [90-T.Watt] at PIT -3. Touchback.
3rd · 9:47PIT +10% win prob(9:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 14-G.Pickens for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:54CIN +9% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Rowe at CIN 39. 25-E.Rowe to CIN 14 for 25 yards (75-O.Brown).
3rd · 11:22PIT +9% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:22PIT +6% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 30-J.Warren to CIN 37 for 18 yards (21-M.Hilton; 55-L.Wilson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
George Pickens's 86-yard touchdown catch with 10:57 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
3rd0:03Evan McPherson·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+311–31
4th7:00Chris Boswell·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+311–34
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Bengals2–7Steelers
370Total yards397
6.0Yards per play6.8
42%Success rate47%
46%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays4
17First downs16
3Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Bengals: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.22Steelers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Bengals: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.36Steelers: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Bengals: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.08Steelers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 62 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Steelers’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.8 points.
CIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.6% in week 15 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Steelers17.4%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteCIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 37.1 points above their season mean of 29.6% and 1.8 times their own 20.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Rudolph pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:57 · Steelers · 2nd & 4 at PIT 14 · gained 86 · +6.67 EP · +15.3% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 92 yards from the PIT 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
767
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0767%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2650%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0946%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.6588%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR8-0.15100%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Bengals0Steelers6
Bengals0Steelers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Steelers 8 to the Steelers 14
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 16
The period ended10 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Bengals 19
2nd quarter49 plays
Bengals0Steelers13
Bengals0Steelers14
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Bengals 41
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 18
Bengals0Steelers20
Bengals0Steelers21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 3
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 5
Bengals0Steelers24
Field goal15 plays, from the Steelers 5 to the Bengals 30
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 45
Bengals6Steelers24
Bengals8Steelers24
Touchdown2 plays
Bengals8Steelers30
Bengals8Steelers31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Steelers 36
Bengals11Steelers31
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Steelers 10
4th quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Intercepted4 plays
Bengals11Steelers34
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 12
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 39
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Steelers 8
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Steelers 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
