2023 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 23, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

CIN -3 upsetO 39.5 ✓Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 34–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:57, PIT +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:57CIN 0 — PIT 6PIT ball · 2nd & 4CIN 57%

(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:57PIT +17% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:12CIN +16% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Peterson [90-T.Watt] at PIT -3. Touchback.
Q3 · 9:47PIT +10% win prob(9:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 14-G.Pickens for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 8:54CIN +9% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Rowe at CIN 39. 25-E.Rowe to CIN 14 for 25 yards (75-O.Brown).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:57PIT Touchdown
(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — PIT 7
Q2 · 14:26PIT Touchdown
(14:26) (Shotgun) 19-C.Austin left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — PIT 14
Q2 · 7:13PIT Touchdown
(7:13) 22-N.Harris right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — PIT 21
Q2 · 0:04PIT Field goal
(:04) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: CIN 0 — PIT 24
Q3 · 11:22CIN Touchdown
(11:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CIN 8 — PIT 24
Q3 · 9:47PIT Touchdown
(9:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 14-G.Pickens for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 8 — PIT 31
Q3 · 0:03CIN Field goal
(:03) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CIN 11 — PIT 31
Q4 · 7:00PIT Field goal
(7:00) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: CIN 11 — PIT 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Steelers
Offensive plays	62	58
Total yards	370	397 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	42%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	6/13	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

28/42, 335 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-7.6 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mason RudolphQB

17/27, 290 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.3 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

19 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

11 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

4/6 for 195 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

5/8 for 140 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	8	22	3:23	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 8	3	92	0:52	Touchdown +7
3	CIN	CIN 25	11	59	5:44	Interception
4	PIT	PIT 20	11	80	5:40	Touchdown +7
5	CIN	CIN 25	5	-9	1:09	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 48	6	3	2:12	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 7	4	11	2:19	Interception
8	PIT	CIN 14	5	14	1:35	Touchdown +7
9	CIN	CIN 25	9	70	4:52	Turnover on downs
10	PIT	PIT 5	12	74	2:14	Field goal +3
11	PIT	PIT 25	8	20	3:38	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 20	2	82	0:11	Touchdown +8
13	PIT	PIT 25	5	75	1:33	Touchdown +7
14	CIN	CIN 25	9	43	3:00	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	PIT 32	4	-2	1:30	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 32	12	46	5:08	Field goal +3
17	PIT	PIT 25	5	6	1:33	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 35	2	6	1:01	Interception
19	PIT	CIN 43	9	31	5:29	Field goal +3
20	CIN	CIN 25	8	25	4:00	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 4	4	4	1:55	Punt
22	CIN	PIT 48	2	15	1:02	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jake Browning	28/42	335	1	3	3	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	11	43	3.9	-4.4
Chase Brown	4	16	4.0	-0.2
Jake Browning	1	0	0.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	5	8	140	1	20%	5.3
Tyler Boyd	5	7	59	0	18%	-2.3
Drew Sample	3	3	38	0	8%	1.5
Trenton Irwin	4	4	37	0	10%	2.9
Andrei Iosivas	4	8	36	0	20%	-1.9
Chase Brown	2	2	8	0	5%	-0.4
Joe Mixon	2	4	7	0	10%	0.1
Mitchell Wilcox	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Tanner Hudson	1	2	5	0	5%	-1.7
Charlie Jones	1	1	-1	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Logan Wilson	2	8	0.0	1
Dax Hill	3	4	0.0	0
Jordan Battle	3	3	0.0	0
B.J. Hill	1	5	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	1	4	0.0	1
Germaine Pratt	1	3	0.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	2	1	0.0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	1	1.0	0
D.J. Turner	1	1	0.0	1
Sam Hubbard	1	1	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mason Rudolph	17/27	290	2	0	1	8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	19	78	4.1	1	1.3
Jaylen Warren	8	24	3.0	0	-0.2
Calvin Austin	1	7	7.0	1	2.0
Mason Rudolph	2	4	2.0	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	4	6	195	2	24%	13.5
Allen Robinson	4	4	36	0	16%	0.9
Jaylen Warren	5	6	30	0	24%	0.6
Diontae Johnson	2	5	15	0	20%	-2.4
Darnell Washington	1	1	8	0	4%	0.6
Miles Boykin	1	1	6	0	4%	0.2
Calvin Austin	0	2	0	0	8%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Rowe	3	4	0.0	1	1
Mykal Walker	3	3	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	5	0	0.0	0	1
Elandon Roberts	4	0	0.0	0	0
Myles Jack	1	3	1.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	3	0	0.0	0	1
Miles Killebrew	1	2	0.0	0	0
Mark Robinson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Herbig	1	1	0.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	1	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3
Closing total: 39.5
CIN moneyline: -155
PIT moneyline: +130

Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 45 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: CIN 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.