2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Houston Texans

CLE -3 ✓O 40 ✓DomeBrowns closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Cleveland Browns 36–22. Biggest swing: Q2 12:16, HOU +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:16CLE 13 — HOU 0CLE ball · 1st & 10CLE 79%

(12:16) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-37-D.Ross, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:16HOU +12% win prob(12:16) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-37-D.Ross, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 · 12:04HOU +12% win prob7-D.Hopkins kicks 63 yards from CLE 35 to HOU 2. 31-D.Pierce for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:53HOU +10% win prob(14:53) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 2-A.Cooper to HOU 6 for 53 yards (1-J.Ward).
Q2 · 0:29CLE +5% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah (93-S.Harris) at HOU 49. 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah to HOU 41 for 8 yards (26-D.Singletary; 2-R.Woods).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:23CLE Touchdown
(13:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 34-J.Ford. 34-J.Ford right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — HOU 0
Q2 · 12:16CLE Touchdown
(12:16) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-37-D.Ross, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — HOU 0
Q2 · 12:04HOU Touchdown
7-D.Hopkins kicks 63 yards from CLE 35 to HOU 2. 31-D.Pierce for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — HOU 7
Q2 · 4:21CLE Touchdown
(4:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 85-D.Njoku for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CLE 22 — HOU 7
Q3 · 2:39CLE Touchdown
(2:39) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CLE 28 — HOU 7
Q4 · 12:34CLE Touchdown
(12:34) 68-M.Dunn and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CLE 36 — HOU 7
Q4 · 6:11HOU Touchdown
(6:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [37-Da.Bell]. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CLE 36 — HOU 15
Q4 · 4:15HOU Touchdown
(4:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 47-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 36 — HOU 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Texans
Offensive plays	77	68
Total yards	423 (edge)	250
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	42% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	60%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	6/16 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Joe FlaccoQB

27/42, 368 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

20.1 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

15/32, 149 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · -18.5% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

9 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

15 att, 25 yds, 1 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

11/15 for 265 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 24.7 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Dalton SchultzTE

8/11 for 61 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 41	6	59	1:42	Touchdown +7
2	HOU	HOU 27	7	15	3:31	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 11	7	12	3:10	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 34	5	11	2:01	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 21	5	25	2:54	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 20	5	28	3:06	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 10	4	90	1:32	Touchdown +7
8	HOU	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown +7
9	CLE	CLE 25	5	6	1:28	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 33	7	-7	3:16	Punt
11	CLE	50	7	52	2:51	Touchdown +8
12	HOU	HOU 32	5	3	2:18	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 34	2	2	0:28	Interception
14	HOU	HOU 16	6	25	1:07	Interception
15	CLE	HOU 41	4	23	0:23	Interception
16	HOU	HOU 33	6	21	2:46	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 6	19	89	9:39	Touchdown +6
18	HOU	HOU 21	4	2	0:58	Interception
19	CLE	CLE 49	11	52	4:06	Touchdown +8
20	HOU	HOU 32	5	8	1:34	Turnover on downs
21	CLE	HOU 40	6	1	2:51	Turnover on downs
22	HOU	HOU 39	10	61	1:58	Touchdown +8
23	HOU	HOU 47	11	53	1:56	Touchdown +7
24	CLE	HOU 44	9	12	2:06	Turnover on downs
25	HOU	HOU 17	10	30	1:42	Turnover on downs
26	CLE	CLE 49	1	0	0:24	End of game

8 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 90 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	27/42	368	3	2	0	20.1
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	1/2	6	0	0	1	-4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerome Ford	15	25	1.7	1	-4.6
Pierre Strong	5	22	4.4	0	-0.1
Kareem Hunt	7	11	1.6	1	-3.0
Joe Flacco	2	1	0.5	0	0.8
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	1	-5	-5.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	11	15	265	2	35%	24.7
David Njoku	6	9	44	1	21%	0.1
Elijah Moore	2	4	19	0	9%	0.6
Jordan Akins	2	2	18	0	5%	0.9
Cedric Tillman	2	2	13	0	5%	3.9
David Bell	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.1
Harrison Bryant	1	1	6	0	2%	0.3
Kareem Hunt	2	4	5	0	9%	-2.9
Pierre Strong	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7
Marquise Goodwin	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.9
Jerome Ford	1	2	-2	0	5%	-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	5	1	0.0	1	2
D'Anthony Bell	6	0	0.0	0	2
Ronnie Hickman	3	3	0.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	4	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Ford	3	1	0.0	0	0
Martin Emerson	3	0	0.0	0	1
Duron Harmon	3	0	0.0	1	1
Myles Garrett	3	0	0.0	0	0
Za'Darius Smith	2	0	2.0	0	1
Matthew Adams	2	0	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	15/32	149	2	0	0	3.6
Case Keenum	11/17	62	0	2	3	-18.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devin Singletary	9	44	4.9	-0.6
Davis Mills	2	9	4.5	0.6
Robert Woods	1	7	7.0	0.1
Dameon Pierce	3	6	2.0	-3.4
Dare Ogunbowale	1	6	6.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Schultz	8	11	61	0	23%	-1.0
Noah Brown	3	7	38	0	15%	2.4
Brevin Jordan	2	3	27	0	6%	0.5
Devin Singletary	3	3	19	0	6%	-0.4
Nico Collins	4	6	18	1	13%	-1.3
Xavier Hutchinson	1	2	18	0	4%	-0.4
Robert Woods	2	6	14	0	13%	-3.7
Dameon Pierce	1	2	10	0	4%	0.5
Andrew Beck	2	2	6	1	4%	0.6
Dare Ogunbowale	0	3	0	0	6%	-2.3
John Metchie	0	3	0	0	6%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Desmond King	3	7	0.0	0	1
Christian Harris	5	2	0.0	0	1
Steven Nelson	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jerry Hughes	3	2	1.0	0	0
Denzel Perryman	4	1	0.0	0	1
DeAndre Houston-Carson	3	2	0.0	1	1
Myjai Sanders	2	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	3	1	0.0	0	0
Derek Stingley	2	1	0.0	1	2
Maliek Collins	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -3
Closing total: 40
CLE moneyline: -162
HOU moneyline: +136

Browns closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 40; the game landed 58 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: CLE 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs DeMeco Ryans