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Cleveland Browns 36, Texans 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:16, 1st and 10, on Amari Cooper — 11.8 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:16 · 1st and 10
Amari Cooper
Browns
(12:16) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-37-D.Ross, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Dome
Browns closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Cleveland Browns 36–22. Biggest swing: Q2 12:16, Browns +11.8% win probability on one snap.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Amari CooperBrownsQ1 14:53(14:53) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 2-A.Cooper to HOU 6 for 53 yards (1-J.Ward).
9.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetTexansQ2 12:047-D.Hopkins kicks 63 yards from CLE 35 to HOU 2. 31-D.Pierce for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Texans at 2 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Browns184 of 197 plays carry both curves
(12:16) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-37-D.Ross, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing −11.8 for TexansExpected points −5.96 for TexansThe model had Texans 12 points higher than the market did.play 46
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:16HOU +12% win prob(12:16) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-37-D.Ross, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 12:04HOU +12% win prob7-D.Hopkins kicks 63 yards from CLE 35 to HOU 2. 31-D.Pierce for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:53HOU +10% win prob(14:53) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 2-A.Cooper to HOU 6 for 53 yards (1-J.Ward).
2nd · 0:29CLE +5% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah (93-S.Harris) at HOU 49. 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah to HOU 41 for 8 yards (26-D.Singletary; 2-R.Woods).
2nd · 6:23HOU +5% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore pushed ob at HOU 32 for 18 yards (0-A.Amos).
2nd · 7:57CLE +5% win prob(7:57) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum sacked at HOU 26 for -13 yards (99-Z.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jerome Ford's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 13:23 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:23Jerome Ford·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd12:16Amari Cooper·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+714–0
2nd12:04Dameon Pierce·98-yd return TD98-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+714–7
2nd4:21David Njoku·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · two-point good+822–7
3rd2:39Amari Cooper·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · two-point no good+628–7
4th6:11Nico Collins·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills · two-point good+836–15
4th4:15Andrew Beck·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+736–22
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryTexans
Browns8–0Texans
423Total yards250
5.5Yards per play3.7
42%Success rate31%
38%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays2
26First downs16
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Browns: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.27Texans: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Browns: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.25Texans: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Browns: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.32Texans: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 77 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Texans’s 68 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Browns 7, Texans 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's play-action rate, 5.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 13.5% in week 2.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 15.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
HOU's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.7 pts in week 15 against −0.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Texans17.4%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteHOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 5.7%, 17.7 points below their season mean of 23.3% and 2.0 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Harris reported+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:16) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-37-D.Ross, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 12:16 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 25 · gained 75 · +5.96 EP · +14.1% win probability
182 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 192. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 94 yards from the CLE 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.0152%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.2583%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.7286%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3383%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Browns6Texans0
Browns7Texans0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Texans 4
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 27 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 23
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 35
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 42
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 48
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Browns13Texans0
Browns14Texans0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 25
Browns14Texans6
Browns14Texans7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 42
Browns20Texans7
Browns22Texans7
Touchdown7 plays, from midfield to the Texans 19
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 39
Intercepted2 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 36
Intercepted8 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Texans 18
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Browns 46
Browns28Texans7
Touchdown20 plays, from the Browns 6 to the Texans 7
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 23
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Texans 26
4th quarter69 plays
Browns34Texans7
Browns36Texans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 1
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 41
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 28
Browns36Texans13
Browns36Texans15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Browns 5
Browns36Texans21
Browns36Texans22
Touchdown11 plays
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Texans 44 to the Texans 12
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Browns 48
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
