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2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

20

Miami DolphinsWinner

22

MIA -1.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓15 mph wind

Miami Dolphins 22–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, MIA +22% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑DAL ↓
Q4 · 0:02DAL 20 — MIA 22MIA ball · 3rd & 11MIA 78%

(:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:02MIA +22% win prob(:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
  2. Q4 · 4:23MIA +20% win prob(4:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on MIA-21-D.Elliott, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at MIA 4 - No Play. Penalty on MIA-25-X.Howard, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  3. Q4 · 3:33MIA +17% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-A.Van Ginkel].
  4. Q1 · 1:41MIA +14% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 2:55MIA Field goal

    (2:55) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: DAL 0 — MIA 3
  2. Q1 · 1:41DAL Touchdown

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — MIA 3
  3. Q2 · 4:36MIA Field goal

    (4:36) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — MIA 6
  4. Q2 · 0:21MIA Touchdown

    (:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — MIA 13
  5. Q3 · 9:04MIA Field goal

    (9:04) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — MIA 16
  6. Q3 · 5:32DAL Field goal

    (5:32) 17-B.Aubrey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — MIA 16
  7. Q3 · 1:28MIA Field goal

    (1:28) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — MIA 19
  8. Q4 · 12:35DAL Field goal

    (12:35) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 13 — MIA 19
  9. Q4 · 3:33DAL Touchdown

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-A.Van Ginkel]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 20 — MIA 19
  10. Q4 · 0:02MIA Field goal

    (:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: DAL 20 — MIA 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysDolphins
Offensive plays6062
Total yards340377 (edge)
Yards per play5.76.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.06 (edge)0.04
Success rate47%52% (edge)
Dropback rate63%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.25 (edge)0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.26-0.21 (edge)
Third downs4/126/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps1620 (edge)
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

24/37, 293 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.3 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

20/32, 253 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.4 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

11 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

12 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

6/10 for 118 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

9/14 for 99 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 2516797:43Fumble
2MIAMIA 210644:27Field goal +3
3DALDAL 255751:20Touchdown +7
4MIAMIA 2513705:28Turnover on downs
5DALDAL 6623:41Punt
6MIAMIA 356312:50Field goal +3
7DALDAL 25572:08Punt
8MIAMIA 299662:06Touchdown +7
9DALDAL 24200:17End of half
10MIAMIA 256152:17Punt
11DALDAL 2410:50Punt
12MIAMIA 405242:54Field goal +3
13DALDAL 257553:31Field goal +3
14MIAMIA 2510584:04Field goal +3
15DALDAL 2511553:53Field goal +3
16MIAMIA 255-21:25Punt
17DALDAL 3118667:39Touchdown +7
18MIAMIA 2513513:27Field goal +3

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 79 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott20/322532048.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard12383.20-1.4
Dak Prescott5255.00-6.2
CeeDee Lamb2147.000.9
Brandin Cooks199.001.1
Kavontae Turpin144.00-0.1
Rico Dowdle242.00-0.2
Hunter Luepke231.501.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb610118131%9.5
Jalen Tolbert225106%3.5
Jake Ferguson4845025%2.4
Brandin Cooks221416%3.4
Hunter Luepke11803%0.5
Tony Pollard11503%-0.2
Kavontae Turpin11403%-0.2
Michael Gallup22406%-0.6
Luke Schoonmaker11403%-0.1
Rico Dowdle02006%-2.1
Peyton Hendershot02006%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Donovan Wilson740.000
Markquese Bell520.000
Damone Clark420.000
Micah Parsons150.500
Jourdan Lewis320.000
Stephon Gilmore410.000
Malik Hooker210.000
Chauncey Golston110.000
Daron Bland110.000
Jayron Kearse200.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa24/372931017.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert11464.20-1.4
Devon Achane7243.40-2.5
Jeffery Wilson5214.20-0.3
Jaylen Waddle122.00-0.9
Tua Tagovailoa2-2-1.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill91499039%3.0
Durham Smythe5556014%3.3
Jaylen Waddle1450011%1.3
Cedrick Wilson3542014%-0.3
Robbie Chosen111903%1.1
Alec Ingold221206%0.5
Devon Achane13708%-1.4
Raheem Mostert11413%2.1
Jeffery Wilson11403%1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Brandon Jones720.000
Andrew Van Ginkel431.501
Zach Sieler231.001
Christian Wilkins220.000
Xavien Howard310.001
Jalen Ramsey400.000
David Long Jr.120.000
Kader Kohou300.000
Bradley Chubb211.500
Duke Riley210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Closing total
48.5
DAL moneyline
+102
MIA moneyline
-122

Dolphins closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 42 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
75°F, wind 15 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
DAL 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Mike McDaniel

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.