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2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas20
BY 2final margin
DolphinsMiami22
Dallas Cowboys 20 at Miami Dolphins 22. Final.
Dolphins -1.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Miami Dolphins 22, Cowboys 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 3rd and 11, on Jason Sanders — 21.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 3rd and 11
Jason Sanders
Dolphins
(:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Dolphins closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.
Miami Dolphins 22–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Dolphins +21.9% win probability on one snap.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dak PrescottCowboysQ4 4:23(4:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on MIA-21-D.Elliott, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at MIA 4 - No Play. Penalty on MIA-25-X.Howard, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
20.4pts
Brandin CooksCowboysQ4 3:33(3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-A.Van Ginkel].
16.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Cowboys at 4 of 12 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 1 giveaway.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Cowboys163 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Swing +21.9 for DolphinsExpected points +0.12 for DolphinsThe model had Cowboys 7 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02MIA +22% win prob(:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
4th · 4:23MIA +20% win prob(4:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on MIA-21-D.Elliott, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at MIA 4 - No Play. Penalty on MIA-25-X.Howard, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 3:33MIA +17% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-A.Van Ginkel].
1st · 1:41MIA +14% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:22DAL +14% win prob(7:22) 66-T.Bass reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 2, RECOVERED by MIA-29-B.Jones at MIA 2.
4th · 8:25MIA +12% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to MIA 32 for 11 yards (25-X.Howard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 29-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st2:55Jason Sanders·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+30–3
1st1:41CeeDee Lamb·49-yd TD catch49-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+77–3
2nd4:36Jason Sanders·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+37–6
2nd0:21Raheem Mostert·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+77–13
3rd9:04Jason Sanders·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+37–16
3rd5:32Brandon Aubrey·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+310–16
3rd1:28Jason Sanders·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+310–19
4th12:35Brandon Aubrey·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+313–19
4th3:33Brandin Cooks·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+720–19
4th0:02Jason Sanders·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+320–22
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryDolphins
Cowboys0–7Dolphins
340Total yards377
5.7Yards per play6.1
47%Success rate52%
33%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
16First downs20
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Cowboys: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.04Dolphins: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Cowboys: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.19Dolphins: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Cowboys: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.21Dolphins: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 62 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Dolphins 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 28.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Dolphins28.9%
leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.9%, 9.0 points above their season mean of 19.9% and 1.2 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jason Sanders+28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q4 0:02 · Dolphins · 3rd & goal at DAL 11 · gained nothing · +0.12 EP · +28.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
44%
Yards
714
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3468%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31+0.1648%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0073%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0050%
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost18 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Dolphins 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Cowboys0Dolphins3
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 2 to the Cowboys 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Cowboys6Dolphins3
Cowboys7Dolphins3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Dolphins 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Cowboys 38
2nd quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Cowboys 3
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Cowboys 20
Cowboys7Dolphins6
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Cowboys 33
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 29
Cowboys7Dolphins12
Cowboys7Dolphins13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Cowboys 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 40
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 2 to the Cowboys 3
Cowboys7Dolphins16
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Cowboys 34
Cowboys10Dolphins16
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Dolphins 21
Cowboys10Dolphins19
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Cowboys 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 35
4th quarter51 plays
Cowboys13Dolphins19
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Dolphins 15
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Cowboys19Dolphins19
Cowboys20Dolphins19
Touchdown19 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Dolphins 1
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys20Dolphins22
Field goal17 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Cowboys 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
