2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Detroit LionsWinner
30
Minnesota Vikings
24
Detroit Lions 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:58, DET +20% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:58) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-I.Melifonwu at DET 5. 6-I.Melifonwu to DET 16 for 11 yards (30-C.Ham).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:58DET +20% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-I.Melifonwu at DET 5. 6-I.Melifonwu to DET 16 for 11 yards (30-C.Ham).
- Q3 · 12:51MIN +13% win prob(12:51) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 17-K.Osborn to DET 6 for 47 yards (30-K.Dorsey).
- Q3 · 8:28MIN +11% win prob(8:28) 26-J.Gibbs left guard to MIN 16 for 18 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
- Q1 · 2:12DET +11% win prob(2:12) 26-J.Gibbs left end to DET 49 for 13 yards (24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (24-C.Bynum), touched at MIN 49, RECOVERED by MIN-40-I.Pace at MIN 46. 40-I.Pace to DET 48 for 6 yards (14-A.St. Brown; 87-S.LaPorta).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:17DET Touchdown
(7:17) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — MIN 0 - Q1 · 2:53MIN Touchdown
(2:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Chandler right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — MIN 7 - Q2 · 5:08DET Field goal
(5:08) 17-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 10 — MIN 7 - Q2 · 1:54DET Touchdown
(1:54) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 17 — MIN 7 - Q2 · 0:37MIN Touchdown
(:37) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 17 — MIN 14 - Q3 · 12:01MIN Touchdown
(12:01) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short right to 17-K.Osborn for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 17 — MIN 21 - Q3 · 4:41DET Touchdown
(4:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DET 23 — MIN 21 - Q4 · 11:09DET Touchdown
(11:09) 26-J.Gibbs right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 30 — MIN 21 - Q4 · 5:22MIN Field goal
(5:22) 1-G.Joseph 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: DET 30 — MIN 24
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Lions | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 75 | 50 |
| Total yards | 391 (edge) | 390 |
| Yards per play | 5.2 | 7.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.18 (edge) | 0.03 |
| Success rate | 51% (edge) | 40% |
| Dropback rate | 55% | 80% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.35 (edge) | 0.13 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.02 (edge) | -0.34 |
| Third downs | 6/12 (edge) | 3/9 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 11 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 26 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 2 (edge) | 5 |
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · MIN
22/36, 411 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT
5.7 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected
Passing · DET
30/40, 257 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
14.3 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
6/10 for 141 yds, 1 TD
29% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added
Receiving · DET
12/14 for 106 yds, 1 TD
36% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | DET 25 | 16 | 80 | 7:47 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | MIN | MIN 25 | 11 | 73 | 4:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | DET | DET 25 | 4 | 24 | 0:49 | Fumble | |
| 4 | MIN | DET 48 | 4 | 8 | 1:46 | Interception | |
| 5 | DET | DET 20 | 4 | 6 | 1:11 | Punt | |
| 6 | MIN | MIN 30 | 4 | -3 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 7 | DET | DET 22 | 13 | 50 | 6:58 | Defensive touchdown +3 | |
| 8 | MIN | MIN 10 | 4 | 12 | 2:27 | Interception | |
| 9 | DET | MIN 33 | 4 | 28 | 0:50 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | MIN | MIN 25 | 8 | 75 | 1:19 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | DET | DET 25 | 4 | 12 | 0:29 | End of half | |
| 12 | MIN | MIN 19 | 7 | 81 | 3:04 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | DET | DET 25 | 15 | 80 | 7:18 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 14 | MIN | MIN 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 15 | DET | DET 17 | 15 | 83 | 6:54 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | MIN | MIN 25 | 4 | 7 | 1:15 | Interception | |
| 17 | DET | DET 35 | 4 | 7 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 18 | MIN | MIN 16 | 8 | 66 | 2:12 | Field goal +3 | |
| 19 | DET | DET 25 | 9 | 21 | 2:56 | Punt | |
| 20 | MIN | MIN 12 | 8 | 63 | 1:34 | Interception | |
| 21 | DET | DET 16 | 2 | 0 | 0:49 | End of game |
9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 83 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Detroit Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 30/40 | 257 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14.3 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 2 | -2.7 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12 | 14 | 106 | 1 | 36% | 6.3 |
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 15% | 3.6 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 5% | 2.2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 18% | -0.7 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8% | 3.1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 10% | -1.1 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 1.1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 1.9 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerby Joseph | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Brian Branch | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 5 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Cominsky | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benito Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Khalil Dorsey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Minnesota Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 22/36 | 411 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 1 | -2.0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 10 | 141 | 1 | 29% | 7.8 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 20% | 6.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 11% | 3.2 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 11% | 1.0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 6% | 1.6 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9% | -0.2 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11% | -6.0 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Metellus | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Camryn Bynum | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jones | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Akayleb Evans | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- DET -2.5
- Closing total
- 47.5
- DET moneyline
- -148
- MIN moneyline
- +124
Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 54 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- U.S. Bank Stadium
- Roof / surface
- dome · sportturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Land Clark
- Rest
- DET 8 days · MIN 8 days
- Coaches
- Dan Campbell vs Kevin O'Connell
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.