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2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit30
BY 6final margin
VikingsMinnesota24
Detroit Lions 30 at Minnesota Vikings 24. Final.
Lions -2.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Detroit Lions 30, Vikings 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:58, 1st and 10, on Ifeatu Melifonwu — 20.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:58 · 1st and 10
Ifeatu Melifonwu
Lions
(:58) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-I.Melifonwu at DET 5. 6-I.Melifonwu to DET 16 for 11 yards (30-C.Ham).
Dome
Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Detroit Lions 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:58, Lions +20.0% win probability on one snap.
20.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.J. OsbornVikingsQ3 12:51(12:51) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 17-K.Osborn to DET 6 for 47 yards (30-K.Dorsey).
13.3pts
Jahmyr GibbsLionsQ3 8:28(8:28) 26-J.Gibbs left guard to MIN 16 for 18 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
11.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — 2 giveaways, against Vikings at 5 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Lions at 6 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Lions won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Lions169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:58) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-I.Melifonwu at DET 5. 6-I.Melifonwu to DET 16 for 11 yards (30-C.Ham).
Swing −20.0 for VikingsExpected points −3.48 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 7 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:58DET +20% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-I.Melifonwu at DET 5. 6-I.Melifonwu to DET 16 for 11 yards (30-C.Ham).
3rd · 12:51MIN +13% win prob(12:51) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 17-K.Osborn to DET 6 for 47 yards (30-K.Dorsey).
3rd · 8:28MIN +11% win prob(8:28) 26-J.Gibbs left guard to MIN 16 for 18 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
1st · 2:12DET +11% win prob(2:12) 26-J.Gibbs left end to DET 49 for 13 yards (24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (24-C.Bynum), touched at MIN 49, RECOVERED by MIN-40-I.Pace at MIN 46. 40-I.Pace to DET 48 for 6 yards (14-A.St. Brown; 87-S.LaPorta).
4th · 1:05MIN +10% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 4-B.Powell ran ob at DET 30 for 26 yards (32-B.Branch).
2nd · 0:37MIN +9% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 1-yard touchdown catch with 4:41 left in the 3rd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th5:22Greg Joseph·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+330–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryVikings
Lions7–2Vikings
391Total yards390
5.2Yards per play7.8
51%Success rate40%
50%Third-down rate33%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays11
26First downs16
1Sacks taken4
2Turnovers5
The read
Lions ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Lions: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Lions: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.13Vikings: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Lions: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.34Vikings: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 75 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Vikings’s 50 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Vikings 4.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's blitz rate sent, 70.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 7.3 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Vikings7.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 15.2 points above their season mean of 59.8% and 1.3 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%79 snaps
60Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%79 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%79 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%79 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%79 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Every snap99%78 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Full-time95%75 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation59%47 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation58%46 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Heavy rotation58%46 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Rotational39%31 snaps
82James MitchellTE · Rotational37%29 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational33%26 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational9%7 snaps
19Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Situational6%5 snaps
13Craig ReynoldsRB · Situational4%3 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Steven GilmoreCBJerry JacobsCBBrodric MartinDTDerrick BarnesILBHendon HookerQBBrock WrightTEAntoine GreenWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Mullens pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:58) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-I.Melifonwu at DET 5. 6-I.Melifonwu to DET 16 for 11 yards (30-C.Ham).
Q4 0:58 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at DET 30 · gained nothing · -3.48 EP · −26.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 83 yards from the DET 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
779
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0757%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0883%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.2844%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.4473%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0967%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Lions6Vikings0
Lions7Vikings0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 1
Lions7Vikings6
Lions7Vikings7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxNine defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 36
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Lions 40
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Lions 26
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 33
Lions10Vikings7
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Vikings 18
Intercepted7 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 18
Lions16Vikings7
Lions17Vikings7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 14
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Lions17Vikings13
Lions17Vikings14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 36
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Lions17Vikings20
Lions17Vikings21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Lions 6
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Lions23Vikings21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 33
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 17 to the Vikings 37
4th quarter54 plays
Lions29Vikings21
Lions30Vikings21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 3
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 42
Lions30Vikings24
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Lions 8
Punt17 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Lions 30
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -2.5
Closing total
47.5
Lions moneyline
-148
Vikings moneyline
+124
Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 54 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Lions 8 days · Vikings 8 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Kevin O'Connell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 6:01
MIN +8% win prob
(6:01) 16-J.Goff up the middle to MIN 5 for 2 yards (58-J.Hicks).
4th · 6:52MIN +8% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 47 for 28 yards (31-K.Joseph). DET-31-K.Joseph was injured during the play. PENALTY on DET-31-K.Joseph, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 47.
