For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay33
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina30
Green Bay Packers 33 at Carolina Panthers 30. Final.
Packers -3.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Green Bay Packers 33, Panthers 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:01, 1st and 10 — 23.3 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Packers
(:01) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.
23.3
Packers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Packers +23.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.J. CharkPanthersQ4 4:12(4:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.7pts
Romeo DoubsPackersQ4 2:39(2:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs to CAR 33 for 36 yards (13-T.Hill). Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
21.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Panthers at 7 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Panthers at 6 of 13 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Packers167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:01) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Swing −23.3 for PanthersExpected points −1.35 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 7 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01GB +23% win prob(:01) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.
4th · 2:39CAR +22% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs to CAR 33 for 36 yards (13-T.Hill). Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
4th · 4:12CAR +16% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:13CAR +12% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen to GB 31 for 22 yards (25-K.Nixon).
4th · 0:22CAR +11% win prob(:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
4th0:22Anders Carlson·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+333–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryPanthers
Packers4–4Panthers
369Total yards396
5.9Yards per play6.3
49%Success rate48%
57%Third-down rate46%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
11Explosive plays7
22First downs23
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Packers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Packers: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.18Panthers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Packers: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.34Panthers: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.06Panthers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 63 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Panthers’s 63 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Panthers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.4% in week 15 against 40.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 15 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.1 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.4% in week 15 against 61.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Panthers6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteGB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 43.6%, 21.3 points above their season mean of 22.3% and 1.9 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
63Rasheed WalkerT · Every snap100%66 snaps
50Zach TomT · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%66 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%66 snaps
85Tucker KraftTE · Full-time92%61 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Full-time88%58 snaps
18Malik HeathWR · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Heavy rotation50%33 snaps
75Sean RhyanG · Heavy rotation50%33 snaps
13Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational39%26 snaps
80Bo MeltonWR · Rotational38%25 snaps
27Patrick TaylorRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
89Ben SimsTE · Rotational30%20 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational23%15 snaps
28A.J. DillonRB · Situational18%12 snaps
83Samori ToureWR · Situational11%7 snaps
70Royce NewmanG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Robert RochellCBDe'Vondre CampbellILBBrenton CoxOLBDarnell SavageSSCaleb JonesTChristian WatsonWRJayden ReedWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young spiked−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q4 0:01 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at GB 31 · gained nothing · -1.35 EP · −30.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 80 yards from the GB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
46%
Yards
765
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.3063%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2657%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.2633%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 33
Packers6Panthers0
Packers7Panthers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Panthers 1
Packers7Panthers3
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Packers 34
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Panthers 1
2nd quarter55 plays
Packers13Panthers3
Touchdown2 plays
Packers13Panthers9
Packers13Panthers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Packers 20
Packers16Panthers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Panthers 35
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Packers 38
Packers22Panthers10
Packers23Panthers10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Panthers 21
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 32
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 45
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
Packers23Panthers16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Packers 4
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Panthers 6
4th quarter54 plays
Packers29Panthers16
Packers30Panthers16
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Packers 12
Packers30Panthers22
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Packers 11
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 31
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.6 seconds
Packers30Panthers28
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxTen defenders
Packers30Panthers30
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Packers 10
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Packers33Panthers30
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Panthers 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Packers 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3.5
Closing total
39.5
Packers moneyline
-198
Panthers moneyline
+164
Packers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 63 — over by 23.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 59°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Packers 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Chris Tabor
CAR +8% win prob
(10:38) 11-I.Smith-Marsette right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:25CAR +8% win prob(13:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to GB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-K.Nixon to GB 48 for 20 yards (21-J.Chinn; 42-S.Franklin). CAR-90-A.Barno was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 17 - No Play.
