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2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

33

Carolina Panthers

30

GB -3.5 no coverO 39.5 ✓

Green Bay Packers 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, GB +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 0:01GB 33 — CAR 30CAR ball · 1st & 10GB 77%

(:01) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:01GB +23% win prob(:01) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.
  2. Q4 · 2:39CAR +22% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs to CAR 33 for 36 yards (13-T.Hill). Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
  3. Q4 · 4:12CAR +16% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 0:13CAR +12% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen to GB 31 for 22 yards (25-K.Nixon).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:34GB Touchdown

    (7:34) 70-R.Newman reported in as eligible. 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CAR 0
  2. Q1 · 5:29CAR Field goal

    (5:29) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. Penalty on GB-95-D.Wyatt, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: GB 7 — CAR 3
  3. Q2 · 15:00GB Touchdown

    (15:00) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 13 — CAR 3
  4. Q2 · 10:38CAR Touchdown

    (10:38) 11-I.Smith-Marsette right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 13 — CAR 10
  5. Q2 · 7:56GB Field goal

    (7:56) 17-A.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 16 — CAR 10
  6. Q2 · 0:57GB Touchdown

    (:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 23 — CAR 10
  7. Q3 · 5:14CAR Touchdown

    (5:14) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 23 — CAR 16
  8. Q4 · 15:00GB Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 30 — CAR 16
  9. Q4 · 7:18CAR Touchdown

    (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-D.Chark for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wyatt].

    Score after this play: GB 30 — CAR 22
  10. Q4 · 4:12CAR Touchdown

    (4:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: GB 30 — CAR 30
  11. Q4 · 0:22GB Field goal

    (:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 33 — CAR 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersPanthers
Offensive plays6363
Total yards369396 (edge)
Yards per play5.96.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.26 (edge)0.18
Success rate49% (edge)48%
Dropback rate48%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.41 (edge)0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.12 (edge)-0.06
Third downs8/14 (edge)6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps2223 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers00

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

23/36, 312 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

17/28, 219 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.3 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

21 att, 127 yds, 0 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

16 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. CharkWR

6/8 for 98 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

6/8 for 94 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 15833:32Punt
2GBGB 208743:58Touchdown +7
3CARCAR 317302:06Field goal +3
4GBGB 2112795:27Touchdown +6
5CARCAR 2310774:28Touchdown +7
6GBGB 258302:38Field goal +3
7CARCAR 257353:39Turnover on downs
8GBGB 4012603:23Touchdown +7
9CARCAR 23590:31Punt
10GBGB 21380:18End of half
11GBGB 255-71:29Punt
12CARCAR 2815578:20Touchdown +6
13GBGB 3411585:14Touchdown +7
14CARCAR 216222:20Punt
15GBGB 11410:59Punt
16CARCAR 4010624:24Touchdown +6
17GBGB 25551:27Punt
18CARCAR 306571:42Touchdown +8
19GBGB 2510613:46Field goal +3
20CARCAR 254440:19End of game

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love17/2821920111.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones211276.004.8
Jordan Love2126.012.4
A.J. Dillon7121.71-2.0
Bo Melton177.000.4
Patrick Taylor341.30-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs4579119%7.6
Tucker Kraft4660023%3.7
Bo Melton4644023%1.2
Dontayvion Wicks222918%4.1
Aaron Jones138012%-0.5
Samori Toure02008%-0.5
Malik Heath11004%-0.4
Patrick Taylor11-104%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Anthony Johnson520.000
Jonathan Owens430.001
Keisean Nixon610.000
Isaiah McDuffie230.000
Eric Stokes410.000
Quay Walker040.500
Preston Smith211.500
Jaire Alexander200.000
Rashan Gary200.000
Patrick Taylor100.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young23/3631220210.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard16432.71-5.3
Ihmir Smith-Marsette23316.512.7
Bryce Young4174.302.5
Miles Sanders331.00-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Chark6898225%10.6
Adam Thielen6894025%5.7
Tommy Tremble4659019%2.0
Stephen Sullivan3521016%-2.1
Ihmir Smith-Marsette111803%1.0
Jonathan Mingo11903%0.8
Chuba Hubbard11803%0.3
Miles Sanders12506%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Frankie Luvu541.000
Derrick Brown350.000
Vonn Bell430.000
Shy Tuttle240.000
Nick Thurman140.000
Troy Hill320.000
Xavier Woods320.000
Yetur Gross-Matos120.000
Jaycee Horn120.000
Brian Burns120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3.5
Closing total
39.5
GB moneyline
-198
CAR moneyline
+164

Packers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 63 — over by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
67°F, wind 1 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
GB 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Chris Tabor