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2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

10

Atlanta FalconsWinner

29

ATL -3 ✓U 44 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 29–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, ATL +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑IND ↓
Q2 · 2:00IND 7 — ATL 10IND ball · 4th & 12ATL 77%

(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 25 for 3 yards (83-K.Granson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 2:00ATL +9% win prob(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 25 for 3 yards (83-K.Granson).
  2. Q1 · 10:47ATL +8% win prob(10:47) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Pierce. PENALTY on ATL-24-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at ATL 14 - No Play.
  3. Q3 · 11:20ATL +8% win prob(11:20) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right end for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 14:19ATL +7% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 86-W.Mallory to IND 42 for 18 yards (53-N.Landman).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:26IND Touchdown

    (9:26) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — ATL 0
  2. Q1 · 7:46ATL Touchdown

    (7:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 8-K.Pitts for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — ATL 7
  3. Q2 · 3:26ATL Field goal

    (3:26) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — ATL 10
  4. Q2 · 0:10ATL Field goal

    (:10) 6-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — ATL 13
  5. Q3 · 11:20ATL Touchdown

    (11:20) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right end for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — ATL 20
  6. Q3 · 4:27IND Field goal

    (4:27) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — ATL 20
  7. Q4 · 14:10ATL Field goal

    (14:10) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — ATL 23
  8. Q4 · 5:49ATL Field goal

    (5:49) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — ATL 26
  9. Q4 · 2:00ATL Field goal

    (2:00) 6-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — ATL 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsFalcons
Offensive plays6763
Total yards263406 (edge)
Yards per play3.96.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.240.13 (edge)
Success rate34%51% (edge)
Dropback rate69%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.150.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.43-0.00 (edge)
Third downs5/145/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)37 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1822 (edge)
Sacks taken61 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Taylor HeinickeQB

23/33, 229 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

20/37, 201 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.1 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

12 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

9 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Kylen GransonTE

5/7 for 62 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

7/10 for 50 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 2515625:36Touchdown +7
2ATLATL 257751:42Touchdown +7
3INDIND 2511345:32Punt
4ATLATL 35232:17Punt
5INDIND 186152:47Punt
6ATLATL 274121:55Punt
7INDIND 22500:35Punt
8ATLATL 1414686:13Field goal +3
9INDIND 255-21:37Punt
10ATLATL 258461:41Field goal +3
11INDIND 25200:05End of half
12ATLATL 2510793:47Touchdown +7
13INDIND 2513656:50Field goal +3
14ATLATL 2513525:17Field goal +3
15INDIND 2510374:04Turnover on downs
16ATLATL 38471:29Punt
17INDIND 16300:36Interception
18ATL506332:11Field goal +3
19INDIND 255-70:57Turnover on downs
20ATLIND 186112:52Field goal +3
21INDIND 257591:57End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 79 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew20/37201016-8.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor18432.41-4.8
Gardner Minshew4317.801.0
Tyler Goodson11515.00-2.1
Trey Sermon231.50-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kylen Granson5762020%6.3
Will Mallory4447011%5.9
Josh Downs6939026%-1.0
Alec Pierce3730020%-3.2
Tyler Goodson121506%0.5
D.J. Montgomery148011%-5.3
Jonathan Taylor01003%-0.5
Mo Alie-Cox01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed920.002
Zaire Franklin720.001
Nick Cross320.000
Julius Brents230.000
Kenny Moore230.000
Grover Stewart220.000
DeForest Buckner210.001
Samson Ebukam120.000
Ronnie Harrison210.000
Rodney Thomas200.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Taylor Heinicke23/332291017.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson12726.00-1.8
Tyler Allgeier9697.711.9
Cordarrelle Patterson7263.701.3
Taylor Heinicke2105.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Bijan Robinson71050031%-0.2
Kyle Pitts3449113%2.3
Drake London3439013%1.1
Jonnu Smith4632019%2.6
Tyler Allgeier111903%2.1
Scott Miller111503%2.1
Van Jefferson131309%-1.6
Cordarrelle Patterson22706%-1.2
KhaDarel Hodge11503%1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kaden Elliss451.001
Nate Landman420.000
DeMarcco Hellams420.000
Jessie Bates420.012
A.J. Terrell410.000
Richie Grant411.000
Clark Phillips210.001
Zach Harrison302.001
Bud Dupree120.001
Mike Hughes210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -3
Closing total
44
IND moneyline
+130
ATL moneyline
-155

Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 44; the game landed 39 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
IND 8 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Arthur Smith