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Indianapolis Colts 10 at Atlanta Falcons 29. Final.
Falcons -3 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Atlanta Falcons 29, Colts 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 4th and 12 — 9.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 4th and 12
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 25 for 3 yards (83-K.Granson).
Dome
Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 19.
Atlanta Falcons 29–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Colts +9.0% win probability on one snap.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Gardner MinshewColtsQ1 10:47(10:47) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Pierce. PENALTY on ATL-24-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at ATL 14 - No Play.
8.2pts
Tyler AllgeierFalconsQ3 11:20(11:20) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right end for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — -0.00 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.24 expected points per snap.
(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 25 for 3 yards (83-K.Granson).
Swing −9.0 for FalconsExpected points −0.20 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00ATL +9% win prob(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 25 for 3 yards (83-K.Granson).
1st · 10:47ATL +8% win prob(10:47) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Pierce. PENALTY on ATL-24-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at ATL 14 - No Play.
3rd · 11:20ATL +8% win prob(11:20) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right end for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:19ATL +7% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 86-W.Mallory to IND 42 for 18 yards (53-N.Landman).
1st · 8:14ATL +7% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end pushed ob at IND 24 for 32 yards (25-R.Thomas).
2nd · 2:38IND +6% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 23 for -8 yards (55-K.Elliss).
1st · 5:07
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 23-yard field goal with 3:26 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
3rd4:27Matt Gay·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–20
4th14:10Younghoe Koo·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+310–23
4th5:49Younghoe Koo·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+310–26
4th2:00Younghoe Koo·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+310–29
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryFalcons
Colts1–8Falcons
263Total yards406
3.9Yards per play6.4
34%Success rate51%
36%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays7
18First downs22
6Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Colts: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.13Falcons: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Colts: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.24Falcons: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.43Colts: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.00Falcons: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 67 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Falcons’s 63 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Falcons 5.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −19.7 pts in week 15 against −1.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.3% in week 15 against 8.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
ATL's play-action rate turned over: 61.9% in week 15 against 17.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
IND's play-action rate turned over: 50.0% in week 15 against 15.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Falcons21.7%
inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -1.0 pts, 8.9 points above their season mean of -9.9 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:47) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Pierce. PENALTY on ATL-24-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at ATL 14 - No Play.
Q1 10:47 · Colts · 3rd & 8 at ATL 14 · gained nothing · +2.63 EP · +8.6% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 82 yards from the ATL 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.2265%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38+0.1561%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.3044%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0957%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6+0.4650%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3340%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Colts6Falcons0
Colts7Falcons0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Falcons 1
Colts7Falcons6
Colts7Falcons7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Colts 24
Punt11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Falcons 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 3 to the Falcons 31
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 33
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 34
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 34
Colts7Falcons10
Field goal17 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Colts 4
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 31
Colts7Falcons13
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Colts 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Colts7Falcons19
Colts7Falcons20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Colts 31
Colts10Falcons20
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Falcons 15
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Colts 35
4th quarter49 plays
Colts10Falcons23
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 23
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Falcons 36
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 45
Intercepted3 plays
Colts10Falcons26
Field goal8 plays, from midfield to the Colts 14
Turnover on downs5 plays
Colts10Falcons29
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Falcons 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -3
Closing total
44
Colts moneyline
+130
Falcons moneyline
-155
Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 44; the game landed 39 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
Colts 8 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Arthur Smith
ATL +6% win prob
(5:07) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 83-K.Granson to ATL 34 for 16 yards (37-D.Hellams) [93-C.Campbell]. Penalty on ATL-48-B.Dupree, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 7:46ATL +6% win prob(7:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 8-K.Pitts for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
