2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

JAX -2 upsetU 43 ✓Jaguars closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:09, TB +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:09JAX 0 — TB 10JAX ball · 3rd & 7TB 69%

(9:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 14-E.Cooks ran ob at TB 26 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:09TB +9% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 14-E.Cooks ran ob at TB 26 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean).
Q2 · 4:50TB +9% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 13-M.Evans (32-Ty.Campbell). PENALTY on JAX-5-A.Cisco, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 34 - No Play.
Q1 · 10:11TB +8% win prob(10:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to JAX 19 for 22 yards (37-T.Herndon).
Q2 · 8:34JAX +7% win prob(8:34) 0-C.Ridley right end to TB 38 for -12 yards (0-Y.Diaby).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:25TB Field goal
(7:25) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: JAX 0 — TB 3
Q2 · 12:58TB Touchdown
(12:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 0 — TB 10
Q2 · 2:30TB Field goal
(2:30) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: JAX 0 — TB 13
Q2 · 0:51TB Touchdown
(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 0 — TB 20
Q3 · 11:35TB Touchdown
(11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 0 — TB 27
Q3 · 3:54TB Field goal
(3:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: JAX 0 — TB 30
Q3 · 0:57JAX Touchdown
(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: JAX 6 — TB 30
Q4 · 4:40JAX Touchdown
(4:40) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 0-C.Ridley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: JAX 12 — TB 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	63	70
Total yards	305	338 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	-0.20	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	44% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	86%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	-0.33 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	10/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

26/35, 283 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.9 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

17/29, 211 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-5.8 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

20 att, 39 yds, 1 TD

-6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Chase EdmondsRB

10 att, 25 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

10/15 for 95 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · -5.8 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Calvin RidleyWR

6/9 for 90 yds, 2 TD

20% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	15	69	7:38	Field goal +3
2	JAX	JAX 32	8	26	3:22	Interception
3	TB	TB 44	12	56	6:07	Touchdown +7
4	JAX	JAX 25	12	41	6:33	Missed field goal
5	TB	TB 42	9	30	3:53	Field goal +3
6	JAX	JAX 23	5	18	0:53	Interception
7	TB	TB 35	8	70	0:49	Touchdown +7
8	JAX	JAX 20	5	-1	0:35	Punt
9	TB	TB 22	1	0	0:10	End of half
10	JAX	JAX 22	4	15	1:27	Fumble
11	TB	JAX 37	6	37	2:03	Touchdown +7
12	JAX	JAX 25	8	40	2:09	Turnover on downs
13	TB	TB 40	10	27	5:32	Field goal +3
14	JAX	JAX 25	12	75	2:59	Touchdown +6
15	TB	TB 25	5	9	2:18	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 18	2	15	0:34	Fumble
17	TB	JAX 34	4	13	1:28	Fumble
18	JAX	JAX 27	10	39	3:12	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 19	4	-6	2:33	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 49	6	37	1:09	Touchdown +6
21	TB	JAX 44	10	33	4:36	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	17/29	211	1	2	3	-5.8
C.J. Beathard	11/15	94	1	0	1	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	4	29	7.3	3.5
Travis Etienne	6	12	2.0	-2.7
C.J. Beathard	1	6	6.0	0.5
D'Ernest Johnson	1	2	2.0	-0.6
Calvin Ridley	1	-12	-12.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Evan Engram	10	15	95	0	34%	-5.8
Calvin Ridley	6	9	90	2	20%	4.6
Elijah Cooks	3	3	38	0	7%	4.4
Tim Jones	3	5	32	0	11%	-0.1
Travis Etienne	3	3	19	0	7%	-0.2
Parker Washington	2	4	19	0	9%	-2.2
Jamal Agnew	1	5	12	0	11%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	6	5	0.0	0
Tyson Campbell	4	2	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	4	0.0	0
Tre Herndon	2	3	0.0	2
Devin Lloyd	3	2	0.0	0
Travon Walker	2	2	1.0	0
Darious Williams	4	0	0.0	0
Davon Hamilton	3	0	0.0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	2	1	1.0	0
Evan Engram	2	0	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	26/35	283	2	0	2	12.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rachaad White	20	39	1.9	1	-6.1
Chase Edmonds	10	25	2.5	0	-3.3
Baker Mayfield	5	5	1.0	0	-3.1
Chris Godwin	1	1	1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	7	9	86	2	26%	7.0
Chris Godwin	6	10	78	0	29%	3.0
Trey Palmer	4	6	42	0	17%	1.9
Rachaad White	6	7	38	0	20%	2.9
Payne Durham	1	1	25	0	3%	1.9
David Moore	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Cade Otton	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lavonte David	8	0	1.0	0	0
Christian Izien	4	2	0.0	0	0
YaYa Diaby	4	1	1.5	0	0
Zyon McCollum	2	2	0.0	0	1
Dee Delaney	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jamel Dean	4	0	0.0	0	0
Devin White	2	2	0.5	1	2
Antoine Winfield	3	0	1.0	1	1
Joe Tryon	2	1	0.0	0	0
David Moore	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -2
Closing total: 43
JAX moneyline: -125
TB moneyline: +105

Jaguars closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 42 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: JAX 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Todd Bowles