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2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville12
BY 18final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay30
Jacksonville Jaguars 12 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30. Final.
Jaguars -2 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 12 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 9:09, 3rd and 7, on Elijah Cooks — 9.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:09 · 3rd and 7
Elijah Cooks
Jaguars
(9:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 14-E.Cooks ran ob at TB 26 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean).
U 43 ✓
Jaguars closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:09, Jaguars +9.0% win probability on one snap.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris GodwinBuccaneersQ1 10:11(10:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to JAX 19 for 22 yards (37-T.Herndon).
8.3pts
Baker MayfieldBuccaneersQ2 4:50(4:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 13-M.Evans (32-Ty.Campbell). PENALTY on JAX-5-A.Cisco, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 34 - No Play.
8.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 4 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.33 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.69 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 10 of 18 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 9 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Jaguars166 of 172 plays carry both curves
(9:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 14-E.Cooks ran ob at TB 26 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean).
Swing −9.0 for BuccaneersExpected points −2.13 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 9 points higher than the market did.play 45
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:09TB +9% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 14-E.Cooks ran ob at TB 26 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean).
2nd · 4:50TB +9% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 13-M.Evans (32-Ty.Campbell). PENALTY on JAX-5-A.Cisco, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 34 - No Play.
1st · 10:11TB +8% win prob(10:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to JAX 19 for 22 yards (37-T.Herndon).
2nd · 8:34JAX +7% win prob(8:34) 0-C.Ridley right end to TB 38 for -12 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
2nd · 13:40TB +7% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to JAX 3 for 7 yards (2-R.Jenkins; 37-T.Herndon).
2nd · 1:40JAX +7% win prob(1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle intended for 17-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield at TB 35. 31-A.Winfield to TB 35 for no gain (17-E.Engram).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 24-yard field goal with 7:25 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:25Chase McLaughlin·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+30–3
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Jaguars: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.05Buccaneers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Jaguars: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.35Buccaneers: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.69Jaguars: −0.69 expected points added per play
−0.33Buccaneers: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 63 snaps at a 86% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 70 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Buccaneers 6.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's early-down pass rate, 81.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 6.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 71.1% in week 15.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
JAX's pass rate over expected, +12.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.0% in week 15 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Buccaneers9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
NoteJAX's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.6%, 21.6 points above their season mean of 60.0% and 2.0 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to JAX 19 for 22 yards (37-T.Herndon).
Q1 10:11 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 7 at JAX 41 · gained 22 · +2.66 EP · +10.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 75 yards from the JAX 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
41%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.1483%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.1765%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2028%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2257%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Jaguars0Buccaneers3
Field goal15 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Jaguars 6
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Buccaneers 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Jaguars 19
2nd quarter50 plays
Jaguars0Buccaneers9
Jaguars0Buccaneers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 3
No good12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Jaguars0Buccaneers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Jaguars 13
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 41
Jaguars0Buccaneers19
Jaguars0Buccaneers20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Jaguars 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 49
Jaguars0Buccaneers26
Jaguars0Buccaneers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Jaguars 2
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Buccaneers 35
Jaguars0Buccaneers30
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Jaguars 30
Jaguars6Buccaneers30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Buccaneers 18
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 20
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 26
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Buccaneers 10
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 20
Jaguars12Buccaneers30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -2
Closing total
43
Jaguars moneyline
-125
Buccaneers moneyline
+105
Jaguars closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 42 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Todd Bowles
1st · 4:09
JAX +7% win prob
(4:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 34. 45-D.White to TB 44 for 10 yards (17-E.Engram).
1st · 13:45TB +7% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 46 for 18 yards (5-A.Cisco).
