2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

New England PatriotsWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -7 upsetO 37.5 ✓28°FBroncos closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, DEN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:07NE 26 — DEN 23NE ball · 4th & 1NE 63%

(:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:07DEN +24% win prob(:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q4 · 2:59DEN +23% win prob(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-2-J.Mills was injured during the play.
Q3 · 1:34NE +16% win prob37-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to DEN -1. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 4. 19-M.Mims to DEN 9 for 5 yards (30-M.Mapu). FUMBLES (30-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-22-C.Davis at DEN 1. 22-C.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:47DEN +15% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 1-D.Parker to DEN 47 for 27 yards (2-P.Surtain).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:20DEN Touchdown
(5:20) 33-J.Williams right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — DEN 7
Q2 · 13:33NE Field goal
(13:33) 37-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — DEN 7
Q3 · 9:54NE Touchdown
(9:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 15-E.Elliott for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NE 9 — DEN 7
Q3 · 1:41NE Touchdown
(1:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-B.Browning]. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 16 — DEN 7
Q3 · 1:34NE Touchdown
37-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to DEN -1. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 4. 19-M.Mims to DEN 9 for 5 yards (30-M.Mapu). FUMBLES (30-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-22-C.Davis at DEN 1. 22-C.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 23 — DEN 7
Q4 · 8:39DEN Touchdown
(8:39) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 85-L.Krull for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NE 23 — DEN 15
Q4 · 2:59DEN Touchdown
(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-2-J.Mills was injured during the play. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NE 23 — DEN 23
Q4 · 0:07NE Field goal
(:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 26 — DEN 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Broncos
Offensive plays	55	66
Total yards	289 (edge)	280
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.09
Success rate	35%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.15 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	12	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

25/33, 256 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.2 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

25/37, 238 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.0 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Jaleel McLaughlinRB

6 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Ezekiel ElliottRB

12 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Demario DouglasWR

5/8 for 74 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Receiving · NE

DeVante ParkerWR

4/5 for 65 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	2	-16	0:07	Fumble
2	DEN	NE 6	4	5	1:35	Turnover on downs
3	NE	NE 2	4	3	1:31	Punt
4	DEN	NE 46	4	4	1:32	Punt
5	NE	NE 15	4	9	2:14	Punt
6	DEN	NE 25	6	25	2:46	Touchdown +7
7	NE	NE 25	14	61	6:45	Field goal +3
8	DEN	DEN 25	5	36	2:03	Fumble
9	NE	NE 39	4	8	2:06	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 13	9	27	6:02	Punt
11	NE	NE 37	7	44	2:46	Missed field goal
12	DEN	DEN 37	5	24	0:33	Missed field goal
13	DEN	DEN 31	5	0	2:16	Punt
14	NE	NE 30	6	70	2:56	Touchdown +6
15	DEN	DEN 25	6	5	2:08	Punt
16	NE	NE 31	4	4	1:36	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 15	4	-12	1:36	Punt
18	NE	DEN 42	6	52	2:54	Touchdown +7
19	DEN	—	1	0	0:06	Defensive touchdown
20	DEN	DEN 25	5	-6	1:37	Punt
21	NE	NE 38	4	4	1:40	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 17	10	85	4:38	Touchdown +8
23	NE	NE 25	5	8	2:00	Punt
24	DEN	DEN 22	12	90	3:40	Touchdown +8
25	NE	NE 25	5	-1	1:11	Punt
26	DEN	DEN 39	4	-3	0:44	Punt
27	NE	NE 19	7	43	0:56	Field goal +3
28	DEN	DEN 27	2	0	0:02	End of game

7 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	25/33	256	2	0	2	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	12	27	2.3	-4.9
Kevin Harris	7	21	3.0	-2.4
Tyquan Thornton	1	9	9.0	0.9
Bailey Zappe	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Demario Douglas	5	8	74	0	26%	1.6
DeVante Parker	4	5	65	0	16%	3.4
Ezekiel Elliott	9	11	33	1	35%	-0.7
Jalen Reagor	2	2	33	0	6%	2.1
Pharaoh Brown	2	2	25	0	6%	2.1
Mike Gesicki	2	2	15	1	6%	3.4
Tyquan Thornton	1	1	11	0	3%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Christian Barmore	5	3	3.0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	5	3	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	6	1	0.0	0
Myles Bryant	4	1	0.0	1
Jahlani Tavai	4	0	0.0	0
Kyle Dugger	3	1	0.0	1
Deatrich Wise	1	3	0.0	0
Shaun Wade	3	0	0.0	0
Marte Mapu	2	1	0.0	0
Keion White	1	2	0.0	1

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	25/37	238	2	0	5	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaleel McLaughlin	6	37	6.2	0	1.3
Javonte Williams	11	24	2.2	1	-5.1
Russell Wilson	4	20	5.0	0	3.0
Samaje Perine	1	2	2.0	0	-0.1
Michael Burton	1	0	0.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Mims	3	4	63	0	11%	2.9
Brandon Johnson	3	5	47	1	14%	6.5
Jerry Jeudy	3	5	44	0	14%	2.5
Jaleel McLaughlin	4	5	30	0	14%	0.7
Lucas Krull	4	5	28	1	14%	2.1
Samaje Perine	4	5	27	0	14%	0.1
Michael Burton	1	1	4	0	3%	0.7
Courtland Sutton	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.8
Adam Trautman	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.0
Javonte Williams	3	3	-5	0	9%	-6.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	8	2	0.0	1
P.J. Locke	5	4	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	5	1	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	5	0	0.0	0
D.J. Jones	2	2	1.0	0
Jonathon Cooper	4	0	1.0	0
Zach Allen	1	2	0.0	0
Drew Sanders	1	2	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	1	1	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -7
Closing total: 37.5
NE moneyline: +270
DEN moneyline: -340

Broncos closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 49 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 28°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: NE 7 days · DEN 8 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean Payton