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2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
PatriotsNew England26
BY 3final margin
BroncosDenver23
New England Patriots 26 at Denver Broncos 23. Final.
Broncos -7 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
New England Patriots 26, Broncos 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:07, 4th and 1, on Chad Ryland — 24.2 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:07 · 4th and 1
Chad Ryland
Patriots
(:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
O 37.5 ✓
27°F
Broncos closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, Patriots +24.2% win probability on one snap.
24.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ3 1:3437-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to DEN -1. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 4. 19-M.Mims to DEN 9 for 5 yards (30-M.Mapu). FUMBLES (30-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-22-C.Davis at DEN 1. 22-C.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
16.2pts
Brandon JohnsonBroncosQ4 2:59(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-2-J.Mills was injured during the play.
23.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Broncos at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Patriots162 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Swing −24.2 for BroncosExpected points −1.55 for BroncosModel and market agree here.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:07DEN +24% win prob(:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
4th · 2:59DEN +23% win prob(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-2-J.Mills was injured during the play.
3rd · 1:34NE +16% win prob37-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to DEN -1. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 4. 19-M.Mims to DEN 9 for 5 yards (30-M.Mapu). FUMBLES (30-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-22-C.Davis at DEN 1. 22-C.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:47DEN +15% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 1-D.Parker to DEN 47 for 27 yards (2-P.Surtain).
3rd · 9:54DEN +11% win prob(9:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 15-E.Elliott for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:53DEN +11% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 33-J.Williams is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chad Ryland's 56-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd1:34Cody Davis·1-yd return TD1-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+723–7
4th8:39Lucas Krull·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point good+823–15
4th2:59Brandon Johnson·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point good+823–23
4th0:07Chad Ryland·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+326–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryBroncos
Patriots4–3Broncos
289Total yards280
5.3Yards per play4.2
35%Success rate47%
25%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
12First downs21
2Sacks taken5
1Turnovers2
The read
Patriots ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Patriots: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.06Broncos: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Patriots: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 55 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Broncos’s 66 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Broncos 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 22.7%, is past their previous high of 18.2% in week 12 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 15.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
NE's blitz rate sent turned over: 9.8% in week 15 against 38.6% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Broncos14.3%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.7%, 10.6 points above their season mean of 12.1% and 1.7 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%58 snaps
62Sidy SowT · Every snap100%58 snaps
4Bailey ZappeQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%58 snaps
68Atonio MafiG · Full-time93%54 snaps
1DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time93%54 snaps
83Jalen ReagorWR · Full-time86%50 snaps
15Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time83%48 snaps
81Demario DouglasWR · Heavy rotation74%43 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Heavy rotation64%37 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational47%27 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Rotational36%21 snaps
87Matt SokolTE · Situational17%10 snaps
36Kevin HarrisRB · Situational17%10 snaps
11Tyquan ThorntonWR · Situational9%5 snaps
80Kayshon BoutteWR · Situational9%5 snaps
65James FerentzC · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Sam RobertsDENathan RourkeQBRhamondre StevensonRBJabrill PeppersSSHunter HenryTEJuJu Smith-SchusterWRMatt SlaterWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Breon BordersCBMac JonesQB
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%69 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%69 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Full-time97%67 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation72%50 snaps
89Brandon JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation68%47 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation58%40 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational49%34 snaps
19Marvin MimsWR · Rotational43%30 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Rotational39%27 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational35%24 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Rotational35%24 snaps
85Lucas KrullTE · Rotational32%22 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational23%16 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Situational13%9 snaps
75Quinn BaileyG · Situational7%5 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Alex ForsythCElijah GarciaDEThomas IncoomOLBNik BonittoOLBBen DiNucciQBJ.L. SkinnerSSNate AdkinsTE
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Chad Ryland+25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q4 0:07 · Patriots · 4th & 1 at DEN 38 · gained nothing · +1.55 EP · +25.3% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 83 yards from the DEN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
36%
Yards
569
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1079%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0674%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.4233%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0244%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0950%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 2
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Patriots 5
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Patriots 41
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 24
Patriots0Broncos6
Patriots0Broncos7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 3
The period ended11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Broncos 24
2nd quarter42 plays
Patriots3Broncos7
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 14
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Patriots 38
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 47
Punt12 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 37
No good10 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Broncos 22
No good6 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Patriots 39
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Patriots9Broncos7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Broncos 15
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 40
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 35
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Patriots15Broncos7
Patriots16Broncos7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Broncos 11
Patriots22Broncos7
Touchdown1 play
Patriots23Broncos7
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 27
4th quarter57 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Patriots 42
Patriots23Broncos13
Patriots23Broncos15
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Patriots 3
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Patriots23Broncos21
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Patriots23Broncos23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Patriots 21
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Patriots26Broncos23
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Broncos 38
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
