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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 22 at Los Angeles Rams 30. Final.
Rams -4 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Los Angeles Rams 30, Saints 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:34, 2nd and 12, on Rashid Shaheed — 10.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:34 · 2nd and 12
Rashid Shaheed
Saints
(2:34) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.
Los Angeles Rams 30–22. Biggest swing: Q2 2:34, Saints +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Puka NacuaRamsQ1 2:32(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.5pts
Demarcus RobinsonRamsQ2 0:25(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-D.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Saints at 5 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Saints at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Saints158 of 170 plays carry both curves
(2:34) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.4 for RamsExpected points −4.85 for RamsThe model had Saints 2 points higher than the market did.play 65
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:34LA +10% win prob(2:34) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:25LA +7% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-D.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:32LA +7% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:57NO +6% win prob(3:57) 8-L.Havrisik 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.
2nd · 0:56LA +6% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson to NO 26 for 32 yards (27-I.Yiadom).
2nd · 1:00NO +6% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson.
2nd · 1:54NO +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Puka Nacua's 2-yard touchdown catch with 2:32 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:32Puka Nacua·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+70–7
2nd10:26Lucas Havrisik·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap C.Tinker+30–10
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Saints: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.21Rams: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Saints: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.43Rams: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Saints: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.04Rams: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 58 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Rams’s 66 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Rams 6.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Rams6.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.1%, 18.8 points above their season mean of 53.3% and 1.6 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson.
Q2 1:00 · Saints · 4th & 5 at LA 42 · gained nothing · -2.51 EP · −10.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 95 yards from the LA 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
39%
Yards
799
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR66+0.2153%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.1885%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.2846%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.8063%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 31
Saints0Rams6
Saints0Rams7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Saints 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 25 to midfield
2nd quarter55 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Rams 39
Saints0Rams10
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Saints 2
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 39
No good9 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Saints 28
Saints6Rams10
Saints7Rams10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Rams 43
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Rams 42
Saints7Rams16
Saints7Rams17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 42 to the Saints 4
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Saints7Rams20
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 3
Intercepted8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 46
Saints7Rams26
Saints7Rams27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Saints 10
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Rams 41
4th quarter41 plays
Saints7Rams30
Field goal6 plays, from midfield to the Saints 13
Saints13Rams30
Saints14Rams30
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Rams 5
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Rams 34
Saints20Rams30
Saints22Rams30
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Saints 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
