2023 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 21, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -4 ✓O 45.5 ✓DomeRams closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.

Los Angeles Rams 30–22. Biggest swing: Q2 2:34, LA +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:34NO 6 — LA 10NO ball · 2nd & 12LA 84%

(2:34) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:34LA +10% win prob(2:34) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:25LA +7% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-D.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:32LA +7% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:57NO +6% win prob(3:57) 8-L.Havrisik 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:32LA Touchdown
(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — LA 7
Q2 · 10:26LA Field goal
(10:26) 8-L.Havrisik 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: NO 0 — LA 10
Q2 · 2:34NO Touchdown
(2:34) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — LA 10
Q2 · 0:25LA Touchdown
(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-D.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — LA 17
Q3 · 11:14LA Field goal
(11:14) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: NO 7 — LA 20
Q3 · 5:47LA Touchdown
(5:47) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — LA 27
Q4 · 12:47LA Field goal
(12:47) 8-L.Havrisik 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: NO 7 — LA 30
Q4 · 6:38NO Touchdown
(6:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — LA 30
Q4 · 3:59NO Touchdown
(3:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-A.Perry for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NO 22 — LA 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Rams
Offensive plays	58	66
Total yards	342	462 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.05	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	38%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.43 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

24/34, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.0 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

27/40, 319 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

1.8 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

22 att, 104 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Ronnie RiversRB

6 att, 20 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

9/11 for 164 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 14.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

9/13 for 123 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	10	38	4:36	Punt
2	LA	LA 5	15	94	7:56	Touchdown +7
3	NO	NO 25	10	27	3:56	Turnover on downs
4	LA	LA 48	7	50	3:09	Field goal +3
5	NO	NO 25	6	14	2:02	Punt
6	LA	LA 32	9	40	4:28	Missed field goal
7	NO	NO 37	4	63	1:25	Touchdown +7
8	LA	LA 25	5	2	0:47	Punt
9	NO	NO 35	5	23	0:45	Turnover on downs
10	LA	LA 42	6	58	0:35	Touchdown +7
11	NO	NO 25	3	0	0:21	End of half
12	LA	LA 25	11	72	3:50	Field goal +3
13	NO	NO 25	7	21	2:43	Interception
14	LA	NO 41	6	41	2:45	Touchdown +7
15	NO	NO 25	8	44	3:03	Turnover on downs
16	LA	LA 31	9	66	4:55	Field goal +3
17	NO	NO 25	14	75	6:11	Touchdown +7
18	LA	LA 17	6	20	2:00	Punt
19	NO	LA 35	3	37	0:40	Touchdown +8
20	LA	NO 44	6	19	3:53	End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 94 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	27/40	319	3	1	2	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	9	19	2.1	-3.8
Jamaal Williams	2	8	4.0	0.5
Rashid Shaheed	1	4	4.0	-0.0
Derek Carr	2	2	1.0	-0.3
Taysom Hill	2	2	1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	9	13	123	0	33%	5.1
Rashid Shaheed	5	9	70	1	23%	3.4
Juwan Johnson	4	7	48	1	18%	-5.4
A.T. Perry	1	1	35	1	3%	3.6
Alvin Kamara	5	6	16	0	15%	-1.7
Foster Moreau	1	2	13	0	5%	1.0
Keith Kirkwood	1	1	9	0	3%	1.3
Jamaal Williams	1	1	5	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Isaac Yiadom	4	3	0.0	0
Paulson Adebo	6	1	0.0	1
Demario Davis	2	4	0.0	0
Carl Granderson	1	5	1.0	0
Alontae Taylor	5	1	0.0	0
Jordan Howden	2	4	0.0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	2	3	0.0	1
Pete Werner	2	3	0.0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	3	1	0.0	0
Khalen Saunders	1	2	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	24/34	328	2	0	1	15.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	22	104	4.7	1	0.3
Ronnie Rivers	6	20	3.3	0	-1.5
Puka Nacua	2	16	8.0	0	0.9
Cooper Kupp	1	-3	-3.0	0	-0.9
Matthew Stafford	1	-4	-4.0	0	-2.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Puka Nacua	9	11	164	1	34%	14.6
Demarcus Robinson	6	6	82	1	19%	8.0
Cooper Kupp	6	12	52	0	38%	-4.8
Tyler Higbee	3	3	30	0	9%	1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
John Johnson	5	3	0.0	0	0
Quentin Lake	5	2	0.0	0	1
Ernest Jones	3	3	1.0	0	2
Christian Rozeboom	2	3	0.0	0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	3	1	0.0	0	0
Michael Hoecht	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Fuller	2	0	0.0	1	1
Aaron Donald	2	0	0.0	0	0
Cobie Durant	1	1	0.0	0	1
Kobie Turner	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -4
Closing total: 45.5
NO moneyline: +180
LA moneyline: -218

Rams closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 52 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NO 4 days · LA 4 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Sean McVay