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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 25, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
GiantsNew York25
BY 8final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia33
New York Giants 25 at Philadelphia Eagles 33. Final.
Eagles -14 no coverO 41 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles 33, Giants 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:21, 2nd and 20, on Adoree' Jackson — 11.5 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:21 · 2nd and 20
Adoree' Jackson
Giants
(:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at NYG 24. 22-A.Jackson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Horse Collar Tackle, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Eagles closed -14, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 33–25. Biggest swing: Q3 0:21, Giants +11.5% win probability on one snap.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ1 13:35(13:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to PHI 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at NYG 13 for 54 yards (47-C.Brown).
6.8pts
A.J. BrownEaglesQ4 14:11(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to NYG 42 for 32 yards (19-I.Simmons).
7.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 14 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Giants at 6 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.06 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Giants174 of 187 plays carry both curves
(:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at NYG 24. 22-A.Jackson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Horse Collar Tackle, 1 yard, enforced between dow
Swing −11.5 for EaglesExpected points −10.15 for EaglesThe model had Giants 6 points higher than the market did.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:21NYG +11% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at NYG 24. 22-A.Jackson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Horse Collar Tackle, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
4th · 14:11PHI +7% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to NYG 42 for 32 yards (19-I.Simmons).
1st · 13:35NYG +7% win prob(13:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to PHI 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at NYG 13 for 54 yards (47-C.Brown).
4th · 5:32PHI +5% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:22PHI +5% win prob(13:22) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left end pushed ob at NYG 20 for 22 yards (29-X.McKinney).
2nd · 13:02NYG +3% win prob(13:02) 6-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to PHI 36, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 48 for 12 yards (94-T.Fox).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 12:28 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:28Jalen Hurts·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st8:08Mason Crosby·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–7
2nd14:56Jake Elliott·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+33–10
4th1:14Jake Elliott·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+325–33
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Giants1–7Eagles
294Total yards465
5.1Yards per play6.3
33%Success rate54%
29%Third-down rate53%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays9
14First downs28
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Giants: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.13Eagles: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Giants: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.16Eagles: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Giants: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.09Eagles: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 58 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Eagles’s 74 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Eagles18.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NotePHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 12.1%, 9.1 points below their season mean of 21.3% and 1.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%63 snaps
79Tyre PhillipsT · Every snap100%63 snaps
68Ben BredesonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%63 snaps
67Justin PughG · Full-time97%61 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time94%59 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time89%56 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation71%45 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
12Darren WallerTE · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
15Tommy DeVitoQB · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
2Tyrod TaylorQB · Rotational49%31 snaps
18Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational43%27 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Situational10%6 snaps
31Matt BreidaRB · Situational8%5 snaps
80Gunner OlszewskiWR · Situational5%3 snaps
3Sterling ShepardWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Sean HarlowCGervarrius OwensFSRakeem Nunez-RochesNTBenton WhitleyOLBCarlos BashamOLBLawrence CagerTEParris CampbellWR
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%75 snaps
78Iosua OpetaG · Every snap100%75 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%75 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%75 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%75 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time97%73 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time93%70 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time85%64 snaps
0D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation57%43 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Heavy rotation52%39 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Rotational40%30 snaps
80Julio JonesWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
13Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational24%18 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Situational19%14 snaps
35Boston ScottRB · Situational3%2 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Situational1%1 snap
16Quez WatkinsWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Darius SlayCBLandon DickersonGZach CunninghamILBNicholas MorrowOLBTanner McKeeQBRashaad PennyRBAlbert OkwuegbunamTE
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at NYG 24. 22-A.Jackson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Horse Collar Tackle, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Q3 0:21 · Eagles · 2nd & 20 at NYG 28 · gained nothing · -10.15 EP · −18.5% win probability
172 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 94 yards from the PHI 6 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
759
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0553%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR34+0.2724%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0282%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1254%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 27
Giants0Eagles6
Giants0Eagles7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 1
Giants3Eagles7
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 34
The period ended19 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Giants 3
2nd quarter50 plays
Giants3Eagles10
Field goal3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 33
Giants3Eagles16
Giants3Eagles17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Giants 36
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 39
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Eagles 21
Giants3Eagles20
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 3
3rd quarter41 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Giants9Eagles20
Giants10Eagles20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 7
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 34
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Eagles 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Giants16Eagles20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 6 to the Giants 18
Giants18Eagles20
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter55 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Giants18Eagles26
Giants18Eagles27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Giants 5
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 42
Giants18Eagles30
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Giants 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Giants24Eagles30
Giants25Eagles30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 31
Giants25Eagles33
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 25
Intercepted12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Giants0
Eagles6
