2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Nissan Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Tennessee Titans

SEA -3 pushU 42 ✓Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Seattle Seahawks 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, TEN +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:14SEA 13 — TEN 17SEA ball · 2nd & 10TEN 52%

(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:14TEN +16% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.
Q4 · 1:00TEN +14% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:17TEN +13% win prob(4:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins. SEA-55-D.Jones was injured during the play. PENALTY on SEA-22-T.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 26 - No Play.
Q4 · 0:57SEA +12% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 21 for -4 yards (53-B.Mafe).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:18TEN Touchdown
(14:18) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 0 — TEN 7
Q2 · 10:52SEA Field goal
(10:52) 5-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — TEN 7
Q2 · 3:22TEN Field goal
(3:22) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — TEN 10
Q3 · 9:57SEA Field goal
(9:57) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 6 — TEN 10
Q4 · 12:15SEA Touchdown
(12:15) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (23-T.Avery). Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 13 — TEN 10
Q4 · 3:25TEN Touchdown
(3:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 13 — TEN 17
Q4 · 1:00SEA Touchdown
(1:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 20 — TEN 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Titans
Offensive plays	59	63
Total yards	273	287 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	42%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	17	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	0	0

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

25/36, 227 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.1 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/26, 152 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.7 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

19 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

16 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

8/11 for 81 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Chigoziem OkonkwoTE

6/7 for 63 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	-5	2:00	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 38	9	15	3:58	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 13	10	45	4:27	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 6	4	-1	2:11	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 43	7	42	3:10	Touchdown +7
6	SEA	SEA 30	8	60	3:26	Field goal +3
7	TEN	TEN 25	13	65	7:30	Field goal +3
8	SEA	SEA 23	11	19	2:30	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 6	5	23	0:48	End of half
10	SEA	SEA 45	11	46	5:07	Field goal +3
11	TEN	TEN 26	11	37	6:10	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 4	11	81	6:33	Touchdown +7
13	TEN	TEN 25	17	62	8:49	Touchdown +7
14	SEA	SEA 25	16	53	2:24	Touchdown +7
15	TEN	TEN 25	7	18	0:57	End of game

7 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	25/36	227	2	0	3	11.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kenneth Walker	16	54	3.4	-1.9
Geno Smith	1	2	2.0	-0.5
DeeJay Dallas	1	2	2.0	0.5
Zach Charbonnet	2	0	0.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	8	11	81	0	31%	6.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6	7	61	0	19%	3.7
DK Metcalf	4	6	56	1	17%	5.4
Colby Parkinson	3	4	17	1	11%	3.1
Jake Bobo	1	3	8	0	8%	-1.3
Will Dissly	1	1	6	0	3%	0.0
Kenneth Walker	1	2	2	0	6%	-0.8
Zach Charbonnet	1	2	-4	0	6%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	6	3	1.0	0
Artie Burns	5	2	0.0	0
Boye Mafe	5	1	2.0	1
Leonard Williams	3	2	0.0	0
Devin Bush	4	1	0.0	0
Tariq Woolen	4	0	0.0	1
Coby Bryant	2	2	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	1	3	0.0	1
Dre'Mont Jones	2	1	1.0	0
Julian Love	3	0	0.0	1

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/26	152	0	0	6	-2.7
Derrick Henry	1/1	12	1	0	0	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	19	88	4.6	1	2.6
Tyjae Spears	9	40	4.4	0	1.8
Ryan Tannehill	2	37	18.5	0	3.4
Treylon Burks	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chigoziem Okonkwo	6	7	63	1	28%	4.3
Tyjae Spears	5	6	27	0	24%	0.1
Treylon Burks	2	3	25	0	12%	0.0
DeAndre Hopkins	2	4	20	0	16%	0.2
Derrick Henry	1	1	11	0	4%	0.7
Chris Moore	1	2	9	0	8%	1.3
Mason Kinsey	1	1	6	0	4%	-1.1
Colton Dowell	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Azeez Al-Shaair	3	4	0.0
Roger McCreary	4	2	0.0
Elijah Molden	3	3	0.0
Tre Avery	4	1	0.0
Denico Autry	0	4	0.5
Mike Brown	3	1	0.0
Otis Reese	3	1	0.0
Arden Key	2	1	1.0
Harold Landry	2	1	1.0
Marlon Davidson	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3
Closing total: 42
SEA moneyline: -166
TEN moneyline: +140

Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 42; the game landed 37 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: SEA 6 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Mike Vrabel