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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 16
It turned at Q4 1:14, 2nd and 10, on Geno Smith — 15.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, Seahawks +15.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:14 · 2nd and 10
Geno Smith
Seahawks
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.08 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Colby Parkinson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:00 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Colby Parkinson5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno SmithLead never changed again+720–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryTitans
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Seahawks, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 59 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 63 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Titans 3.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 15 against 26.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
TEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.5% in week 15 against 30.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
SEA's blitz rate sent turned over: 8.1% in week 15 against 29.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · +0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-2.1 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 59 snaps
Titans-7.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their -5.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 77%
Tendencies room →Seahawks60.9%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 46 early downs
Titans52.0%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 51.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 52%
Tendencies room →Seahawks15.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Titans26.5%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 25.7%.
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 50%
Tendencies room →Seahawks29.4%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Titans30.0%leaned — sent pressure · +9.4 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Seahawks26.5%leaned — got home · +11.8 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Titans7.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
SEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.5%, 11.8 points above their season mean of 14.7% and 1.4 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
25/36, 227 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.1 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
18/26, 152 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.7 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected
Receiving · TEN
6/7 for 63 yds, 1 TD
28% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chigoziem Okonkwo banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.4 | +6.1 | 48% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 12 yd, 1 TD · 19 car, 88 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 18.3 | +6.5 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 17.3 | −1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/36, 227 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | −0.5 | 81% | 88% | 31% | 50% | 8/11, 81 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.6 | +3.6 | 89% | 90% | 17% | 23% | 4/6, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Featured Receiver | 12.1 | +0.7 | 63% | 73% | 19% | 17% | 6/7, 61 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Committee Back | 11.7 | −0.7 | 56% | 74% | 24% | 1% | 9 car, 40 yd · 5/6, 27 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +1.2 | 37% | 33% | 11% | 11% | 3/4, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 9.8 | +1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/26, 152 yd · 2 car, 37 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.6 | −4.1 | 58% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 16 car, 54 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.1 | 73% | 74% | 12% | 15% | 1 car, -3 yd · 2/3, 25 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −2.5 | 82% | 91% | 16% | 31% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.0 | 74% | 69% | 8% | 16% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.6 | 26% | 25% | 8% | 12% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 26% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Mason KinseyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Colton DowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | 21% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 0.6 | −6.0 | 42% | 55% | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 0 yd · 1/2, -4 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 76% | 75% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jonathan WardRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.
Q4 1:14 · Seahawks · 2nd & 10 at TEN 27 · gained nothing · +2.34 EP · +20.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 96 yards from the SEA 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks0
Titans6Seahawks0Titans7Seahawks3Titans7Seahawks3Titans10Seahawks6Titans10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Seahawks12Titans10Seahawks13Titans10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Seahawks13Titans16Seahawks13Titans17How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Seahawks19Titans17Seahawks20Titans17How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 25/36 | 227 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +11.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| DeeJay Dallas |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 | 31% | +6.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Artie Burns | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/26 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 6 | −2.7 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 12 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_16_SEA_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 42; the game landed 37 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| 19% |
| +3.7 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 | 17% | +5.4 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 11% | +3.1 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Kenneth Walker | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 6% | −2.0 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Leonard Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Coby Bryant | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Tyjae Spears | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 | 28% | +4.3 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 24% | +0.1 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 12% | +0.0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 16% | +0.2 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Colton Dowell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Avery | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otis Reese | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Davidson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
