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Seattle Seahawks 20 at Tennessee Titans 17. Final.
Seahawks -3 pushU 42 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 16
Seattle Seahawks 20, Titans 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:14, 2nd and 10, on Geno Smith — 15.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:14 · 2nd and 10
Geno Smith
Seahawks
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.
Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Seattle Seahawks 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, Seahawks +15.6% win probability on one snap.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ryan TannehillTitansQ4 4:17(4:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins. SEA-55-D.Jones was injured during the play. PENALTY on SEA-22-T.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 26 - No Play.
13.3pts
Colby ParkinsonSeahawksQ4 1:00(1:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.08 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Seahawks158 of 168 plays carry both curves
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.
Swing −15.6 for TitansExpected points −2.34 for TitansThe model had Titans 9 points higher than the market did.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:14TEN +16% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.
4th · 1:00TEN +14% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:17TEN +13% win prob(4:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins. SEA-55-D.Jones was injured during the play. PENALTY on SEA-22-T.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 26 - No Play.
4th · 0:57SEA +12% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 21 for -4 yards (53-B.Mafe).
4th · 1:49TEN +11% win prob(1:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at TEN 38 for 12 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 2:00TEN +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to 50 for 18 yards (44-M.Brown). Penalty on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Colby Parkinson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:00 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Seahawks, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.09Titans: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Seahawks: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.08Titans: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Seahawks: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.11Titans: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 59 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 63 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Titans 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 15 against 26.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
TEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.5% in week 15 against 30.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
SEA's blitz rate sent turned over: 8.1% in week 15 against 29.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +11.8 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Titans7.5%
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.5%, 11.8 points above their season mean of 14.7% and 1.4 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%62 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%62 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%62 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%62 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time89%55 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time81%50 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Heavy rotation77%48 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TEN 27 - No Play.
Q4 1:14 · Seahawks · 2nd & 10 at TEN 27 · gained nothing · +2.34 EP · +20.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 96 yards from the SEA 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
560
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0976%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1363%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1458%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3860%
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7-0.0529%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0833%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3020%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.3420%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Titans 41
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Seahawks 42
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Seahawks 27
2nd quarter47 plays
Seahawks0Titans6
Seahawks0Titans7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 12
Seahawks3Titans7
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Titans 10
Seahawks3Titans10
Field goal15 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Seahawks 15
Punt12 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Titans 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Titans 34
3rd quarter31 plays
Seahawks6Titans10
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Titans 9
Punt12 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Seahawks 42
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 4 to the Seahawks 48
4th quarter53 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Seahawks12Titans10
Seahawks13Titans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Seahawks13Titans16
Seahawks13Titans17
Touchdown19 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Seahawks 2
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Seahawks19Titans17
Seahawks20Titans17
Touchdown19 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Titans 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 25 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -3
Closing total
42
Seahawks moneyline
-166
Titans moneyline
+140
Seahawks closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 42; the game landed 37 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Seahawks 6 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Mike Vrabel
4th · 12:15TEN +10% win prob(12:15) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (23-T.Avery). Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:29SEA +10% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 40 for -10 yards (55-D.Jones).
