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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Commanders196 of 207 plays carry both curves
(:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Swing +37.7 for JetsExpected points +1.39 for JetsThe model had Commanders 5 points higher than the market did.play 204
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:10NYJ +38% win prob(:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
4th · 0:05WAS +20% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass short right to 82-L.Thomas to WAS 30 for 5 yards (57-C.Mosley).
4th · 4:55NYJ +13% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:45NYJ +13% win prob(:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle to 20-Bre.Hall to WAS 39 for 14 yards (47-K.Hudson) [93-J.Allen].
4th · 6:40NYJ +11% win prob(6:40) 12-J.Brissett pass deep right to 1-J.Dotson pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 21 yards (4-D.Reed). PENALTY on NYJ-57-C.Mosley, Face Mask, 9 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.
4th · 1:50WAS +10% win prob(1:50) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYJ 24, Center-58-T.Addington. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 33 for 9 yards (32-T.Burgess).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 54-yard field goal with 0:10 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:03Greg Zuerlein·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+30–3
4th0:10Greg Zuerlein·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+328–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryJets
Commanders2–5Jets
245Total yards381
4.2Yards per play4.5
36%Success rate44%
25%Third-down rate25%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays4
14First downs23
1Sacks taken0
2Turnovers2
The read
Jets ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Commanders: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.24Jets: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.42Commanders: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.31Jets: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.24Commanders: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.14Jets: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 58 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Jets’s 85 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Jets 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's blitz rate sent turned over: 3.4% in week 15 against 18.9% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Jets8.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteWAS's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 13.7%, 14.7 points below their season mean of 28.5% and 1.4 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Greg Zuerlein+41% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Q4 0:10 · Jets · 4th & 7 at WAS 36 · gained nothing · +1.39 EP · +40.5% win probability
194 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 207 plays across 31 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 202. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 31 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 77 yards from the WAS 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
207 of 207 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
207
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
40%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.3170%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0262%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1532%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.4158%
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
207 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
207 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter51 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Commanders0Jets3
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 7
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 28
Commanders0Jets9
Commanders0Jets10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 8
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 11
Commanders0Jets16
Commanders0Jets17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Commanders 36
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Jets 45
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jets 11 to the Commanders 34
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Jets 46
2nd quarter58 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 6 to the Jets 33
Commanders0Jets20
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Commanders 4
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
Fumble lost1 play
Commanders6Jets20
Commanders7Jets20
Touchdown2 plays
Commanders7Jets26
Commanders7Jets27
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Commanders 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 34
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 42
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 6 to the Commanders 15
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Jets 46
Intercepted5 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 29
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 6
Commanders13Jets27
Commanders14Jets27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Jets 13
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 40
4th quarter58 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 40
Commanders20Jets27
Commanders21Jets27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Jets 1
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 36
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
Commanders27Jets27
Commanders28Jets27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Jets 2
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 27
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Commanders28Jets30
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Commanders 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
