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2023 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 24, 2023 · MetLife Stadium

Washington Commanders

28

New York JetsWinner

30

NYJ -3 no coverO 36.5 ✓

New York Jets 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, NYJ +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑WAS ↓
Q4 · 0:10WAS 28 — NYJ 30NYJ ball · 4th & 7WAS 58%

(:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:10NYJ +38% win prob(:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
  2. Q4 · 0:05WAS +20% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass short right to 82-L.Thomas to WAS 30 for 5 yards (57-C.Mosley).
  3. Q4 · 4:55NYJ +13% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 0:45NYJ +13% win prob(:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle to 20-Bre.Hall to WAS 39 for 14 yards (47-K.Hudson) [93-J.Allen].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:03NYJ Field goal

    (13:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — NYJ 3
  2. Q1 · 11:29NYJ Touchdown

    (11:29) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short left to 16-J.Brownlee for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — NYJ 10
  3. Q1 · 9:44NYJ Touchdown

    (9:44) 20-Bre.Hall left tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — NYJ 17
  4. Q2 · 9:13NYJ Field goal

    (9:13) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — NYJ 20
  5. Q2 · 6:48WAS Touchdown

    (6:48) 23-C.Rodriguez left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — NYJ 20
  6. Q2 · 1:42NYJ Touchdown

    (1:42) 54-B.Turner reported in as eligible. 20-Bre.Hall right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — NYJ 27
  7. Q3 · 3:31WAS Touchdown

    (3:31) (Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — NYJ 27
  8. Q4 · 9:36WAS Touchdown

    (9:36) (Shotgun) 23-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 21 — NYJ 27
  9. Q4 · 4:55WAS Touchdown

    (4:55) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 28 — NYJ 27
  10. Q4 · 0:10NYJ Field goal

    (:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: WAS 28 — NYJ 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersJets
Offensive plays5885
Total yards245381 (edge)
Yards per play4.24.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.18 (edge)-0.24
Success rate36%44% (edge)
Dropback rate64%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.42-0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.24 (edge)-0.14
Third downs3/124/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps1423 (edge)
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers22

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Trevor SiemianQB

27/49, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-16.0 expected points added · -12.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jacoby BrissettQB

10/13, 100 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.9 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

20 att, 95 yds, 2 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Chris RodriguezRB

10 att, 58 yds, 2 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Breece HallRB

12/16 for 96 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · -3.6 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

9/15 for 76 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 25300:10Interception
2NYJWAS 245171:50Field goal +3
3WASWAS 255-101:05Punt
4NYJWAS 9490:29Touchdown +7
5WASWAS 9521:08Punt
6NYJWAS 423420:41Touchdown +7
7WASWAS 258302:06Punt
8NYJNYJ 1110555:29Turnover on downs
9WASWAS 345202:02Punt
10NYJNYJ 69203:21Punt
11NYJNYJ 477172:29Field goal +3
12WASWAS 256142:19Punt
13NYJNYJ 17100:03Fumble
14WASNYJ 122120:10Touchdown +7
15NYJNYJ 2913665:03Touchdown +7
16WASWAS 25580:25Punt
17NYJNYJ 224201:10End of half
18NYJNYJ 257173:15Punt
19WASWAS 6491:40Punt
20NYJNYJ 39470:54Punt
21WASWAS 20441:11Interception
22NYJWAS 223161:17Interception
23WASNYJ 297343:17Touchdown +7
24NYJNYJ 278284:16Punt
25WASWAS 2310564:37Touchdown +7
26NYJNYJ 226141:38Punt
27WASWAS 177593:03Touchdown +7
28NYJNYJ 2510222:45Punt
29WASWAS 25420:26Punt
30NYJNYJ 338311:36Field goal +3
31WASWAS 25250:05End of game

10 of 31 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 66 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett10/131001006.9
Sam Howell6/2256021-23.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chris Rodriguez10585.824.0
Antonio Gibson9303.310.0
Jacoby Brissett11010.000.8
Curtis Samuel242.001.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin3550016%0.6
Logan Thomas5636119%-0.9
Jahan Dotson2431013%1.9
Curtis Samuel1616019%-8.7
John Bates3514016%-0.8
Chris Rodriguez11703%0.1
Antonio Gibson12206%-1.2
Jamison Crowder01003%-0.5
Byron Pringle02006%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Khaleke Hudson670.002
Cody Barton530.011
David Mayo350.000
Quan Martin420.000
Percy Butler230.000
Kamren Curl310.001
Terrell Burgess400.000
Benjamin St-Juste220.001
Kendall Fuller310.003
Jonathan Allen220.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Siemian27/49217110-16.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall20954.821.3
Israel Abanikanda9434.801.0
Trevor Siemian4184.50-2.8
Xavier Gipson11616.001.0
Tyler Conklin100.00-3.5
Garrett Wilson1-8-8.00-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Breece Hall121696036%-3.6
Garrett Wilson91576033%1.9
Tyler Conklin4736016%0.3
Jason Brownlee13817%-6.6
Xavier Gipson12104%-2.4
Allen Lazard01002%-1.4
Kenny Yeboah01002%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quincy Williams420.012
C.J. Mosley330.000
Jordan Whitehead130.500
Tony Adams310.011
John Franklin-Myers120.500
Jalyn Holmes200.000
D.J. Reed200.000
Quinnen Williams200.000
Bryce Huff110.001
Michael Carter200.003

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -3
Closing total
36.5
WAS moneyline
+140
NYJ moneyline
-166

Jets closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 58 — over by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
45°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
WAS 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Robert Saleh