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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field

Arizona CardinalsWinner

35

Philadelphia Eagles

31

PHI -12 upsetO 48 ✓

Arizona Cardinals 35–31. Biggest swing: Q4 1:26, PHI +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PHI ↑ARI ↓
Q4 · 1:26ARI 28 — PHI 31ARI ball · 1st & 10PHI 68%

(1:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to PHI 5 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 57-B.VanSumeren).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:26PHI +21% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to PHI 5 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 57-B.VanSumeren).
  2. Q4 · 0:36PHI +21% win prob(:36) 6-J.Conner right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 5:30PHI +18% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 12:01ARI +17% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Brown [94-J.Sweat] at PHI 1. 21-S.Brown for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:12ARI Field goal

    (5:12) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — PHI 0
  2. Q1 · 0:42PHI Touchdown

    (:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 80-J.Jones for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — PHI 7
  3. Q2 · 12:01PHI Touchdown

    (12:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Brown [94-J.Sweat] at PHI 1. 21-S.Brown for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — PHI 14
  4. Q2 · 1:53ARI Field goal

    (1:53) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 6 — PHI 14
  5. Q2 · 0:24PHI Touchdown

    (:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-J.Jones for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 6 — PHI 21
  6. Q3 · 8:48ARI Touchdown

    (8:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 22-M.Carter for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 13 — PHI 21
  7. Q3 · 2:10ARI Touchdown

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-M.Williams]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ARI 21 — PHI 21
  8. Q4 · 10:02PHI Touchdown

    (10:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 21 — PHI 28
  9. Q4 · 5:30ARI Touchdown

    (5:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 28 — PHI 28
  10. Q4 · 2:37PHI Field goal

    (2:37) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: ARI 28 — PHI 31
  11. Q4 · 0:36ARI Touchdown

    (:36) 6-J.Conner right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 35 — PHI 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsEagles
Offensive plays7247
Total yards449 (edge)275
Yards per play6.2 (edge)5.9
Expected points added / play0.26 (edge)0.23
Success rate58% (edge)51%
Dropback rate47%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.290.52 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.11
Third downs5/10 (edge)4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps30 (edge)16
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers11

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

25/31, 232 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

9.1 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

18/23, 167 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

11.5 expected points added · +17.7% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

26 att, 128 yds, 1 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Michael CarterRB

7 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Greg DortchWR

7/7 for 82 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

4/5 for 53 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PHIPHI 25582:05Punt
2ARIARI 2614647:46Field goal +3
3PHIPHI 2511694:33Touchdown +7
4ARIARI 339433:52Defensive touchdown
5ARIARI 2517639:54Field goal +3
6PHIPHI 2511751:34Touchdown +7
7ARIARI 25390:16End of half
8ARIARI 2512756:18Touchdown +7
9PHIPHI 25551:38Punt
10ARIARI 239775:03Touchdown +8
11PHIPHI 2515707:06Touchdown +7
12ARIARI 2310484:29Touchdown +7
13PHIARI 397242:53Field goal +3
14ARIARI 309702:01Touchdown +7
15PHIPHI 256240:32Interception

10 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 77 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray25/312323119.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner261284.916.2
Michael Carter7618.702.7
Kyler Murray5244.800.8
Rondale Moore284.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Greg Dortch7782023%7.9
Trey McBride6748023%1.3
Michael Wilson4635119%-4.7
Rondale Moore3426013%2.1
Elijah Higgins222106%2.4
Emari Demercado139010%-1.0
Michael Carter11613%2.0
James Conner11513%1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Antonio Hamilton520.000
Krys Barnes430.000
Starling Thomas400.001
B.J. Ojulari220.000
Budda Baker220.000
Victor Dimukeje300.000
Kevin Strong120.000
Jalen Thompson120.000
Roy Lopez200.000
Owen Pappoe110.000

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts18/2316731011.5
Kenneth Gainwell1/1170001.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift13614.70-0.2
Jalen Hurts8253.10-0.8
Kenneth Gainwell252.50-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
A.J. Brown4553022%4.1
Dallas Goedert5647126%5.5
Julio Jones223429%5.9
DeVonta Smith3530022%-0.2
Kenneth Gainwell4415017%-1.9
D'Andre Swift11504%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Reed Blankenship740.000
Nicholas Morrow550.000
Kevin Byard630.000
Josh Sweat420.000
Shaquille Leonard230.000
Sydney Brown230.011
Kelee Ringo320.000
Milton Williams220.000
Brandon Graham220.000
Ben VanSumeren130.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PHI -12
Closing total
48
ARI moneyline
+525
PHI moneyline
-750

Eagles closed -12 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 66 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
45°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
ARI 7 days · PHI 6 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Nick Sirianni