For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Cardinals154 of 165 plays carry both curves
(1:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to PHI 5 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 57-B.VanSumeren).
Swing −21.1 for EaglesExpected points −3.07 for EaglesThe model had Cardinals 10 points higher than the market did.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:26PHI +21% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to PHI 5 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 57-B.VanSumeren).
4th · 0:36PHI +21% win prob(:36) 6-J.Conner right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:30PHI +18% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:01ARI +17% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Brown [94-J.Sweat] at PHI 1. 21-S.Brown for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:37PHI +14% win prob(2:37) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
4th · 10:02PHI +12% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:07
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Conner's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:36 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:12Matt Prater·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+33–0
4th2:37Jake Elliott·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+328–31
4th0:36James Conner·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+735–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryEagles
Cardinals7–1Eagles
449Total yards275
6.2Yards per play5.9
58%Success rate51%
50%Third-down rate44%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays5
30First downs16
1Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Cardinals ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Cardinals: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.23Eagles: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Cardinals: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.52Eagles: +0.52 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Cardinals: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.11Eagles: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 72 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Eagles’s 47 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 7, Eagles 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 17Against their seasonFourth Down
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 17.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.8 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 16 against 40.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Eagles8.8%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.1 pts, 11.6 points below their season mean of -1.5 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−28% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Brown [94-J.Sweat] at PHI 1. 21-S.Brown for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:01 · Cardinals · 3rd & 7 at PHI 24 · gained nothing · -10.38 EP · −27.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 77 yards from the ARI 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.23
Success rate
52%
Yards
726
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1748%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.0925%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.3385%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.3939%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.4929%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 33
Cardinals3Eagles0
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Eagles 3
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Cardinals3Eagles6
Cardinals3Eagles7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cardinals 12
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Cardinals3Eagles13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Eagles 20
Cardinals3Eagles14
Cardinals6Eagles14
Field goal21 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Eagles 16
Cardinals6Eagles20
Cardinals6Eagles21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cardinals 22
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Cardinals12Eagles21
Cardinals13Eagles21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Eagles 5
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 30
Cardinals19Eagles21
Cardinals21Eagles21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Eagles 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cardinals 46
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
Cardinals21Eagles27
Cardinals21Eagles28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Cardinals27Eagles28
Cardinals28Eagles28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Eagles 5
Cardinals28Eagles31
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cardinals34Eagles31
Cardinals35Eagles31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Eagles 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -12
Closing total
48
Cardinals moneyline
+525
Eagles moneyline
-750
Eagles closed -12 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 66 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 45°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Eagles 6 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Nick Sirianni
ARI +12% win prob
(:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blount [52-V.Dimukeje] at ARI -4. Touchback.
4th · 5:26PHI +10% win prob5-M.Prater kicks onside 10 yards from ARI 35 to ARI 45. 39-E.Ricks (didn't try to advance) to ARI 44 for 1 yard. PENALTY on ARI-33-A.Hamilton, Offside on Free Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 44.
