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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q4 1:26, 1st and 10, on Greg Dortch — 21.1 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Arizona Cardinals 35–31. Biggest swing: Q4 1:26, Cardinals +21.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:26 · 1st and 10
Greg Dortch
Cardinals
(1:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to PHI 5 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 57-B.VanSumeren).
21.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Eagles at 5 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 51% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.52 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.29 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(1:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to PHI 5 for 36 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 57-B.VanSumeren).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
James Conner's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:36 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryEagles
Cardinals ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 72 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Eagles’s 47 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 7, Eagles 3.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 17.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.8 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 16 against 40.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-10.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their -6.4 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 72 snaps
Eagles-13.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.6 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 82%
Tendencies room →Cardinals40.0%leaned — ran early · −13.4 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 60 early downs
Eagles48.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cardinals17.6%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Eagles24.0%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.9%.
Eagles33.3%leaned — took the kick · −25.8 vs their 59.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 44%
Tendencies room →Cardinals16.0%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Eagles17.6%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 27%
Tendencies room →Cardinals8.0%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Eagles8.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
PHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.1 pts, 11.6 points below their season mean of -1.5 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
25/31, 232 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
9.1 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
18/23, 167 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
11.5 expected points added · +17.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Julio Jones banked 12.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 26.3 | +9.1 | 66% | 51% | 3% | 3% | 26 car, 128 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 23.7 | +1.6 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 25/31, 232 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 24 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | +0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 167 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 25 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.4 | +12.4 | 41% | 72% | 9% | 12% | 2/2, 34 yd, 2 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.7 | +5.6 | 94% | 92% | 26% | 20% | 5/6, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 15.5 | +3.0 | 86% | 91% | 19% | 36% | 4/6, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Greg DortchWR · Featured Receiver | 15.2 | +4.8 | 82% | 86% | 23% | 31% | 7/7, 82 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 13.7 | +6.8 | 17% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 61 yd · 1/1, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Trey McBrideTE · Featured Receiver | 10.8 | +0.9 | 88% | 94% | 23% | 6% | 6/7, 48 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 9.3 | +1.2 | 94% | 96% | 22% | 24% | 4/5, 53 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 7.6 | −1.1 | 47% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 13 car, 61 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 6.7 | −2.0 | 53% | 72% | 17% | 1% | 1/1, 17 yd · 2 car, 5 yd · 4/4, 15 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −0.6 | 66% | 71% | 13% | 7% | 2 car, 8 yd · 3/4, 26 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 6.0 | −3.9 | 88% | 80% | 22% | 42% | 3/5, 30 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.1 | 37% | 23% | 6% | 11% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 1.9 | −2.9 | 12% | 26% | 10% | 6% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Ben VanSumerenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Brown [94-J.Sweat] at PHI 1. 21-S.Brown for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:01 · Cardinals · 3rd & 7 at PHI 24 · gained nothing · -10.38 EP · −27.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 77 yards from the ARI 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals3
Eagles0How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cardinals3Eagles6Cardinals3Eagles7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals3Eagles13Cardinals3Eagles14Cardinals6Eagles14Cardinals6Eagles20Cardinals6Eagles21Cardinals12Eagles21Cardinals13Eagles21Cardinals19Eagles21Cardinals21Eagles21How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Cardinals21Eagles27Cardinals21Eagles28How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Cardinals27Eagles28Cardinals28Eagles28Cardinals28Eagles31How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Cardinals34Eagles31Cardinals35Eagles31How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 25/31 | 232 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 26 | 128 | 4.9 | 1 | +6.2 |
| Michael Carter | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Kyler Murray |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 7 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 23% | +7.9 |
| Trey McBride | 6 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Hamilton | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Starling Thomas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/23 | 167 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +11.5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1/1 | 17 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_ARI_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -12 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 66 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 24 |
| 4.8 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +1.3 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 19% | −4.7 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +2.1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3% | +2.0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3% | +1.3 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| B.J. Ojulari | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Dimukeje | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Strong | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Owen Pappoe | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 22% | +4.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 26% | +5.5 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 2 | 34 | 2 | 9% | +5.9 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 22% | −0.2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 17% | −1.9 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Blankenship | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Morrow | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kelee Ringo | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Graham | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben VanSumeren | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
