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Chicago Bears 37, Falcons 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 14:14, 1st and 10, on Tyler Allgeier — 12.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:14 · 1st and 10
Tyler Allgeier
Falcons
(14:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 25-T.Allgeier for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 20.
Chicago Bears 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:14, Falcons +12.5% win probability on one snap.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Younghoe KooBearsQ1 12:24(12:24) 6-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
8.5pts
D.J. MooreBearsQ1 8:52(8:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
7.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 4 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Falcons at 9 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
(14:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 25-T.Allgeier for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.5 for BearsExpected points −6.08 for BearsThe model had Falcons 3 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:14CHI +12% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 25-T.Allgeier for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:24ATL +9% win prob(12:24) 6-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
1st · 8:52CHI +8% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
1st · 10:51CHI +7% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 3 for 24 yards (27-R.Grant).
1st · 3:22ATL +7% win prob(3:22) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
1st · 13:42ATL +6% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-B.Robinson. 7-B.Robinson FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 38, recovered by ATL-9-D.Ridder at CHI 39.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.J. Moore's 7-yard touchdown catch with 8:52 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Bears ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Falcons: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.13Bears: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Falcons: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.26Bears: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Falcons: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.03Bears: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bears’s 72 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Bears 5.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 9 pts
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bears17.9%
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 39.5%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 25.1% and 1.5 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%59 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%59 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Full-time97%57 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Full-time97%57 snaps
4Taylor HeinickeQB · Full-time88%52 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time83%49 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Full-time81%48 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation78%46 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation76%45 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
15Van JeffersonWR · Rotational41%24 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational29%17 snaps
18Mack HollinsWR · Rotational29%17 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Situational24%14 snaps
64Ryan NeuzilC · Situational22%13 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Situational19%11 snaps
43Tucker FiskTE · Situational17%10 snaps
16Scott MillerWR · Situational14%8 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Situational14%8 snaps
9Desmond RidderQB · Situational14%8 snaps
77Storm NortonT · Situational3%2 snaps
68Kyle HintonG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Joe GazianoDETommy TogiaiDTJovaughn GwynGLogan WoodsideQBJohn LeglueTJohn FitzPatrickTE
3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Younghoe Koo−8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:24) 6-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q1 12:24 · Falcons · 4th & 9 at CHI 31 · gained nothing · -3.87 EP · −7.9% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 75 yards from the ATL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
37%
Yards
739
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2462%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR39+0.1164%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.2238%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2922%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.4150%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6-0.4450%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
No good7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bears 31
Falcons0Bears6
Falcons0Bears7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Falcons 3
No good11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bears 23
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Falcons 22
2nd quarter48 plays
Falcons0Bears13
Falcons0Bears14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 9
Falcons6Bears14
Falcons7Bears14
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 31
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Falcons 30
Falcons7Bears20
Falcons7Bears21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Falcons 2
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 41
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 29
No good6 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Falcons 35
3rd quarter43 plays
Falcons7Bears24
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Falcons 3
Falcons10Bears24
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bears 19
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Falcons 38
Intercepted2 plays
Falcons10Bears27
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 46 to the Falcons 24
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 34
4th quarter51 plays
Falcons16Bears27
Falcons17Bears27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Bears 24
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays
Falcons17Bears30
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 24
Intercepted5 plays
Falcons17Bears36
Falcons17Bears37
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 1
Intercepted6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bears 47
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Bears 35
The period ended3 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Falcons 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
