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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Soldier Field

Atlanta Falcons

17

Chicago BearsWinner

37

CHI -3 ✓O 39 ✓32°F

Chicago Bears 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:14, CHI +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑ATL ↓
Q2 · 14:14ATL 6 — CHI 14ATL ball · 1st & 10CHI 91%

(14:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 25-T.Allgeier for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 14:14CHI +12% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 25-T.Allgeier for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 12:24ATL +9% win prob(12:24) 6-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
  3. Q1 · 8:52CHI +8% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
  4. Q1 · 10:51CHI +7% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 3 for 24 yards (27-R.Grant).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:52CHI Touchdown

    (8:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — CHI 7
  2. Q2 · 14:20CHI Touchdown

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — CHI 14
  3. Q2 · 14:14ATL Touchdown

    (14:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 25-T.Allgeier for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — CHI 14
  4. Q2 · 4:06CHI Touchdown

    (4:06) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — CHI 21
  5. Q3 · 12:00CHI Field goal

    (12:00) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — CHI 24
  6. Q3 · 8:33ATL Field goal

    (8:33) 6-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 10 — CHI 24
  7. Q3 · 1:14CHI Field goal

    (1:14) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: ATL 10 — CHI 27
  8. Q4 · 12:32ATL Touchdown

    (12:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — CHI 27
  9. Q4 · 5:04CHI Field goal

    (5:04) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — CHI 30
  10. Q4 · 3:42CHI Touchdown

    (3:42) 24-K.Herbert right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — CHI 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsBears
Offensive plays5972
Total yards307432 (edge)
Yards per play5.26.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.070.13 (edge)
Success rate39% (edge)39%
Dropback rate66%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.05-0.03 (edge)
Third downs4/136/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)912 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1322 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers40 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

20/32, 268 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.4 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Taylor HeinickeQB

10/29, 163 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-6.3 expected points added · -26.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

18 att, 124 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

15 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

9/13 for 159 yds, 1 TD

43% of team targets · 10.4 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

4/10 for 56 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 257512:40Missed field goal
2CHICHI 408653:33Touchdown +7
3ATLATL 2511515:30Missed field goal
4CHICHI 329684:03Touchdown +7
5ATLATL 253750:14Touchdown +7
6CHICHI 25561:23Punt
7ATLATL 28421:29Punt
8CHICHI 2513757:06Touchdown +7
9ATLATL 25510:56Punt
10CHICHI 344-21:26Punt
11ATLATL 27320:38Interception
12CHIATL 37401:02Missed field goal
13CHICHI 258713:04Field goal +3
14ATLATL 2510413:27Field goal +3
15CHICHI 3310294:15Turnover on downs
16ATLATL 39200:16Interception
17CHIATL 466322:48Field goal +3
18ATLATL 2513603:48Touchdown +7
19CHICHI 256353:39Punt
20ATLATL 20400:23Punt
21CHIATL 447203:21Field goal +3
22ATLATL 255-71:01Interception
23CHIATL 414410:19Touchdown +7
24ATLATL 256281:32Interception
25CHICHI 334-81:15Punt
26ATLATL 24230:52End of game

10 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 75 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Taylor Heinicke10/29163132-6.3
Desmond Ridder3/417010-2.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson15755.00-1.0
Taylor Heinicke44611.515.8
Tyler Allgeier5132.600.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Allgeier117513%6.1
Drake London41056031%-5.3
Van Jefferson3519016%2.1
MyCole Pruitt111403%2.6
Bijan Robinson3411013%-0.3
Kyle Pitts155016%-2.8
KhaDarel Hodge02006%-2.4
Jonnu Smith040013%-6.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jessie Bates820.000
Kaden Elliss331.000
DeMarcco Hellams600.000
Richie Grant410.000
Nate Landman310.000
Mike Hughes210.001
Clark Phillips300.000
Zach Harrison300.000
Bud Dupree120.500
Drake London200.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields20/322681035.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Khalil Herbert181246.913.0
Justin Fields11454.112.8
Roschon Johnson7213.01-2.0
Velus Jones122.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore913159143%10.4
Robert Tonyan3440013%1.4
Roschon Johnson3338010%1.8
Tyler Scott2515017%-2.7
Collin Johnson111103%1.3
Khalil Herbert235010%-0.6
Khari Blasingame01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaquan Brisker410.000
Gervon Dexter321.500
Tremaine Edmunds410.001
Terell Smith220.000
Tyrique Stevenson310.024
Eddie Jackson400.000
T.J. Edwards200.011
Dominique Robinson110.000
Kyler Gordon110.011
DeMarcus Walker110.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -3
Closing total
39
ATL moneyline
+130
CHI moneyline
-155

Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 39; the game landed 54 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
32°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
ATL 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Matt Eberflus