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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Carolina Panthers

0

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

26

JAX -3.5 ✓U 38 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 26–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:15, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 2:15CAR 0 — JAX 3CAR ball · 4th & 7JAX 56%

(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 2:15CAR +13% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
  2. Q2 · 9:21JAX +10% win prob(9:21) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short middle to 17-E.Engram to CAR 13 for 22 yards (25-X.Woods).
  3. Q1 · 4:26JAX +9% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at JAX 24 for 14 yards (5-A.Cisco) [23-F.Oluokun].
  4. Q3 · 12:10JAX +7% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:40JAX Field goal

    (8:40) 10-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — JAX 3
  2. Q2 · 7:22JAX Field goal

    (7:22) 10-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — JAX 6
  3. Q2 · 2:48JAX Field goal

    (2:48) 10-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — JAX 9
  4. Q3 · 12:10JAX Touchdown

    (12:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — JAX 16
  5. Q3 · 3:04JAX Field goal

    (3:04) 10-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — JAX 19
  6. Q4 · 4:18JAX Touchdown

    (4:18) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to CAR 1 for no gain (97-Y.Gross-Matos; 99-S.Tuttle). FUMBLES (97-Y.Gross-Matos), recovered by JAX-77-A.Harrison at CAR 3. Jacksonville challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — JAX 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersJaguars
Offensive plays5358
Total yards124321 (edge)
Yards per play2.35.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.460.11 (edge)
Success rate34%36% (edge)
Dropback rate74%50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.580.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.10-0.05 (edge)
Third downs1/137/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)06 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps715 (edge)
Sacks taken63 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.46.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

C.J. BeathardQB

17/24, 178 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

19/32, 112 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-21.5 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

16 att, 102 yds, 2 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

11 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

6/6 for 60 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Calvin RidleyWR

4/8 for 39 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 4014436:24Field goal +3
2CARCAR 2514446:26Turnover on downs
3JAXJAX 316182:24Punt
4CARCAR 224-81:41Punt
5JAXJAX 3812545:47Field goal +3
6CARCAR 255-82:43Punt
7JAXJAX 406541:50Field goal +3
8CARCAR 25500:57Punt
9JAXJAX 274-31:00Punt
10CARCAR 42460:28Punt
11JAXJAX 20100:20End of half
12CARCAR 25572:13Punt
13JAXJAX 343660:51Touchdown +7
14CARCAR 25581:32Punt
15JAXJAX 1712527:24Field goal +3
16CARCAR 2515508:07Turnover on downs
17JAXJAX 30472:29Punt
18CARCAR 10451:00Turnover on downs
19JAXCAR 155152:08Touchdown +7
20CARCAR 255201:24Interception
21JAXCAR 395152:52End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 66 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young19/32112016-21.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard11454.10-0.8
Miles Sanders2105.00-0.0
Bryce Young122.00-1.2
Ihmir Smith-Marsette100.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen6638019%3.9
Chuba Hubbard4526016%0.5
D.J. Chark1618019%-1.8
Miles Sanders221206%3.1
Ihmir Smith-Marsette3312010%0.4
Tommy Tremble136010%-5.5
Stephen Sullivan02006%-5.1
Ian Thomas01003%-1.6
Jonathan Mingo230010%-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derrick Brown250.001
Deion Jones431.000
Brian Burns331.000
Shaquill Griffin410.001
Frankie Luvu140.000
Marquis Haynes310.000
A.J. Parker130.000
Yetur Gross-Matos121.000
Nick Thurman210.000
DeShawn Williams120.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Beathard17/241780035.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne161026.423.5
Tank Bigsby10323.20-2.1
C.J. Beathard3248.002.4
D'Ernest Johnson300.00-2.8
Matt Barkley3-3-1.00-4.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram6660026%7.1
Jamal Agnew225309%3.5
Calvin Ridley4839035%-0.9
Travis Etienne221609%1.3
Luke Farrell11704%0.6
Parker Washington11204%-0.9
Brenton Strange12109%-1.1
Tim Jones01004%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tyson Campbell610.001
Foyesade Oluokun330.001
Josh Hines-Allen413.000
Travon Walker502.000
Devin Lloyd230.000
Rayshawn Jenkins030.001
Andre Cisco210.000
Folorunso Fatukasi200.000
Tre Herndon200.000
Roy Robertson-Harris101.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Closing total
38
CAR moneyline
+160
JAX moneyline
-192

Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 38; the game landed 26 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
56°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
CAR 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Chris Tabor vs Doug Pederson