For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Panthers143 of 149 plays carry both curves
(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
Swing +13.0 for JaguarsExpected points +4.36 for JaguarsThe model had Panthers 2 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:15CAR +13% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
2nd · 9:21JAX +10% win prob(9:21) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short middle to 17-E.Engram to CAR 13 for 22 yards (25-X.Woods).
1st · 4:26JAX +9% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at JAX 24 for 14 yards (5-A.Cisco) [23-F.Oluokun].
3rd · 12:10JAX +7% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:01JAX +7% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right to 39-J.Agnew to CAR 7 for 48 yards (20-S.Griffin). JAX-39-J.Agnew was injured during the play.
1st · 3:46CAR +6% win prob(3:46) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-J.Mingo to JAX 28 for -4 yards (32-Ty.Campbell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 35-yard field goal with 8:40 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:40Brandon McManus·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+30–3
2nd7:22Brandon McManus·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+30–6
2nd2:48Brandon McManus·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+30–9
Jaguars ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.46Panthers: −0.46 expected points added per play
+0.11Jaguars: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.58Panthers: −0.58 expected points added per play
+0.26Jaguars: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Panthers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.05Jaguars: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 53 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 0, Jaguars 6.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
JAX's pass rate over expected, −7.7 pts, is past their previous low of −4.3 pts in week 11 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 16.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 25.6% in week 16 against 5.1% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.7% in week 16 against 20.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jaguars20.5%
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.7 pts, 10.5 points below their season mean of 2.8 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young sacked−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
Q1 2:15 · Panthers · 4th & 7 at JAX 21 · lost 10 · -4.36 EP · −11.6% win probability
141 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 149 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 67 yards from the JAX 17 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
149 of 149 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
149
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
35%
Yards
441
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.4775%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.2859%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1035%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.0638%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Panthers0Jaguars3
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Panthers 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Jaguars 21
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 46
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 24
Panthers0Jaguars6
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Panthers 8
Punt6 plays
Panthers0Jaguars9
Field goal6 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Panthers 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Jaguars 32
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Panthers0Jaguars15
Panthers0Jaguars16
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 38
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 33
Panthers0Jaguars19
Field goal13 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Panthers 16
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 45
4th quarter34 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Jaguars 29
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 37
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 15
Panthers0Jaguars25
Panthers0Jaguars26
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 1
Intercepted5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
