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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q1 2:15, 4th and 7, on Bryce Young — 13.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 26–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:15, Jaguars +13.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:15 · 4th and 7
Bryce Young
Jaguars
(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.58 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 13 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Panthers at 0 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandon McManus's 35-yard field goal with 8:40 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Brandon McManus35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+30–36 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 53 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 0, Jaguars 6.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's pass rate over expected, −7.7 pts, is past their previous low of −4.3 pts in week 11 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
JAX's early-down pass rate, 40.5%, is past their previous low of 49.1% in week 1 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 25.6% in week 16 against 5.1% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.7% in week 16 against 20.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-2.3 ptsright on their number · +3.1 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 53 snaps
Jaguars-7.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.5 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.87× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 88%
Tendencies room →Panthers58.8%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 34 early downs
Jaguars40.5%leaned — ran early · −19.5 vs their 60.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 40%
Tendencies room →Panthers5.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jaguars13.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Panthers50.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±22.1 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars20.0%inside their normal wobble · −11.5 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±22.9 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 61%
Tendencies room →Panthers20.7%inside their normal wobble · −10.2 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jaguars28.2%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Panthers20.7%leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jaguars20.5%inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
JAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.7 pts, 10.5 points below their season mean of 2.8 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 5 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 5
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
17/24, 178 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
5.2 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
19/32, 112 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-21.5 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Travis Etienne banked 11.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 25.8 | +11.8 | 62% | 76% | 9% | 0% | 16 car, 102 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.0 | +3.0 | 68% | 100% | 26% | 21% | 6/6, 60 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.1 | +0.3 | 70% | 67% | 16% | 3% | 11 car, 45 yd · 4/5, 26 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | +2.9 | 93% | 95% | 19% | 8% | 6/6, 38 yd |
| C.J. BeathardQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | −4.6 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 17/24, 178 yd · 3 car, 24 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.9 | −6.7 | 71% | 93% | 35% | 37% | 4/8, 39 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +3.9 | 14% | 24% | 9% | 27% | 2/2, 53 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 4.2 | +0.8 | 26% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.2 | 22% | 13% | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 0 yd · 3/3, 12 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 3.2 | −2.5 | 27% | 7% | 0% | — | 10 car, 32 yd |
| D.J. CharkWR · Featured Receiver | 2.8 | −6.0 | 83% | 92% | 19% | 56% | 1/6, 18 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 2.7 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/32, 112 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.3 | 98% | 100% | 10% | 7% | 2/3, 0 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | 49% | 24% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.3 | 70% | 62% | 10% | 10% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | +0.4 | 40% | 55% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −2.9 | 48% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | 22% | 31% | 6% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tim JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 62% | 55% | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.0 | −2.8 | 19% | 17% | 0% | — | 3 car, 0 yd |
| Matt BarkleyQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at JAX 31 for -10 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
Q1 2:15 · Panthers · 4th & 7 at JAX 21 · lost 10 · -4.36 EP · −11.6% win probability
141 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 149 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 67 yards from the JAX 17 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers0
Jaguars3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Panthers0Jaguars6Panthers0Jaguars9Panthers0Jaguars15Panthers0Jaguars16Panthers0Jaguars19Panthers0Jaguars25Panthers0Jaguars26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 19/32 | 112 | 0 | 1 | 6 | −21.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Bryce Young |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 19% | +3.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Brown | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deion Jones | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 17/24 | 178 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_CAR_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 38; the game landed 26 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| +0.5 |
| D.J. Chark | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 19% | −1.8 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +3.1 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −5.5 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −5.1 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.9 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Frankie Luvu | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Parker | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Thurman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 16 | 102 | 6.4 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Tank Bigsby | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.1 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 26% | +7.1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 9% | +3.5 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 35% | −0.9 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +1.3 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9% | −1.1 |
| Tim Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Campbell | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 5 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Cisco | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
