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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati17
BY 8final margin
ChiefsKansas City25
Cincinnati Bengals 17 at Kansas City Chiefs 25. Final.
Chiefs -7.5 ✓U 46 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 17
Kansas City Chiefs 25, Bengals 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 1:30, 1st and 10, on Rashee Rice — 13.6 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:30 · 1st and 10
Rashee Rice
Chiefs
(1:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 4-R.Rice to CIN 11 for 67 yards (23-D.Hill).
Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Kansas City Chiefs 25–17. Biggest swing: Q3 1:30, Chiefs +13.6% win probability on one snap.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jake BrowningBengalsQ3 10:02(10:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep left to 5-T.Higgins. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at KC 45 - No Play.
11.1pts
Joe MixonChiefsQ3 7:47(7:47) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle to KC 9 for -3 yards (50-W.Gay).
11.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 16 on third down, against Chiefs at 3 of 12 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 1 giveaway.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Bengals158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(1:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 4-R.Rice to CIN 11 for 67 yards (23-D.Hill).
Swing +13.6 for ChiefsExpected points +4.26 for ChiefsThe model had Bengals 6 points higher than the market did.play 121
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:30KC +14% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 4-R.Rice to CIN 11 for 67 yards (23-D.Hill).
3rd · 10:02KC +11% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep left to 5-T.Higgins. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at KC 45 - No Play.
3rd · 7:47CIN +11% win prob(7:47) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle to KC 9 for -3 yards (50-W.Gay).
3rd · 7:00KC +10% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to CIN 44 for 41 yards (27-J.Battle; 20-D.Turner). Penalty on CIN-23-D.Hill, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
2nd · 11:32KC +9% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:53CIN +9% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 20 for -8 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson), RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at KC 24.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 24-yard field goal with 14:12 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:26Evan McPherson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+33–0
1st3:02Isiah Pacheco·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–7
2nd3:49Harrison Butker·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–10
2nd0:39Harrison Butker·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–13
3rd4:34Harrison Butker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–16
4th14:12Harrison Butker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+317–19
4th6:22Harrison Butker·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–22
4th3:03Harrison Butker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–25
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryChiefs
Bengals4–5Chiefs
263Total yards375
3.7Yards per play7.4
34%Success rate37%
50%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays6
18First downs14
6Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Bengals: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.05Chiefs: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.03Chiefs: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Bengals: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.08Chiefs: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 71 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 51 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Chiefs 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.6% in week 16 against 55.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Chiefs29.5%
leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.5%, 10.8 points above their season mean of 18.7% and 1.7 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Ford reported−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:47) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle to KC 9 for -3 yards (50-W.Gay).
Q3 7:47 · Bengals · 4th & 1 at KC 6 · lost 3 · -4.06 EP · −14.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 85 yards from the KC 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
34%
Yards
636
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0062%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0573%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0256%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.3040%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR9+0.2589%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1533%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.560%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Bengals3Chiefs0
Field goal17 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 16
Bengals3Chiefs6
Bengals3Chiefs7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bengals 8
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 39
2nd quarter51 plays
Bengals9Chiefs7
Bengals10Chiefs7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 6
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
Bengals16Chiefs7
Bengals17Chiefs7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Chiefs 1
Bengals17Chiefs10
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Bengals 36
Punt5 plays
Bengals17Chiefs13
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Bengals 24
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 36
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Chiefs 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Bengals17Chiefs16
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Bengals 9
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to midfield
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Bengals 6
4th quarter45 plays
Bengals17Chiefs19
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 27
Bengals17Chiefs22
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Bengals 29
Punt5 plays
Bengals17Chiefs25
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Bengals 28
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 45
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
