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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

17

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

25

KC -7.5 ✓U 46 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 25–17. Biggest swing: Q3 1:30, KC +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑CIN ↓
Q3 · 1:30CIN 17 — KC 16KC ball · 1st & 10KC 60%

(1:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 4-R.Rice to CIN 11 for 67 yards (23-D.Hill).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 1:30KC +14% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 4-R.Rice to CIN 11 for 67 yards (23-D.Hill).
  2. Q3 · 10:02KC +11% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep left to 5-T.Higgins. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at KC 45 - No Play.
  3. Q3 · 7:47CIN +11% win prob(7:47) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle to KC 9 for -3 yards (50-W.Gay).
  4. Q3 · 7:00KC +10% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to CIN 44 for 41 yards (27-J.Battle; 20-D.Turner). Penalty on CIN-23-D.Hill, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:26CIN Field goal

    (6:26) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

    Score after this play: CIN 3 — KC 0
  2. Q1 · 3:02KC Touchdown

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-I.Pacheco for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 3 — KC 7
  3. Q2 · 11:32CIN Touchdown

    (11:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 10 — KC 7
  4. Q2 · 6:28CIN Touchdown

    (6:28) 6-J.Browning scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 17 — KC 7
  5. Q2 · 3:49KC Field goal

    (3:49) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 17 — KC 10
  6. Q2 · 0:39KC Field goal

    (:39) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 17 — KC 13
  7. Q3 · 4:34KC Field goal

    (4:34) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 17 — KC 16
  8. Q4 · 14:12KC Field goal

    (14:12) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 17 — KC 19
  9. Q4 · 6:22KC Field goal

    (6:22) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 17 — KC 22
  10. Q4 · 3:03KC Field goal

    (3:03) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: CIN 17 — KC 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsChiefs
Offensive plays7151
Total yards263375 (edge)
Yards per play3.77.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.080.05 (edge)
Success rate34%37% (edge)
Dropback rate62%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.360.08 (edge)
Third downs8/16 (edge)3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)14
Sacks taken62 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

21/29, 245 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.0 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

19/33, 197 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.1 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

18 att, 130 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

21 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-8.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

5/6 for 127 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

3/7 for 41 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 2516648:39Field goal +3
2KCKC 259753:23Touchdown +7
3CINCIN 2513756:29Touchdown +7
4KCKC 254-10:43Fumble
5CINKC 249204:23Touchdown +7
6KCKC 247402:39Field goal +3
7CINCIN 255-11:44Punt
8KCKC 325491:25Field goal +3
9CINCIN 256250:35End of half
10KCKC 25521:21Punt
11CINCIN 1711445:56Turnover on downs
12KCKC 99773:12Field goal +3
13CINCIN 256251:52Punt
14KCKC 97853:30Field goal +3
15CINCIN 25521:02Punt
16KCKC 3113396:49Field goal +3
17CINCIN 255-41:45Punt
18KCCIN 37491:34Field goal +3
19CINCIN 2510131:52Turnover on downs
20KCCIN 38201:07End of game

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jake Browning19/331971060.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon21653.10-8.4
Jake Browning7324.614.9
Chase Brown351.70-1.3
Trayveon Williams122.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase3741023%-0.3
Tanner Hudson3738023%0.8
Tyler Boyd222906%3.3
Chase Brown222306%1.1
Joe Mixon4422113%3.3
Drew Sample3421013%0.7
Tee Higgins121906%1.3
Trenton Irwin12406%-1.1
Mitchell Wilcox01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Battle520.000
Dax Hill510.000
Chidobe Awuzie410.000
Sam Hubbard320.000
Logan Wilson230.000
Mike Hilton311.000
Jay Tufele120.000
B.J. Hill210.000
Cam Taylor-Britt200.001
Zach Carter200.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes21/29245102-0.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco181307.201.5
Patrick Mahomes420.50-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashee Rice56127021%7.6
Justin Watson1341011%1.5
Isiah Pacheco7735125%-0.6
Noah Gray3417014%-1.0
Travis Kelce3416014%-0.8
Richie James11604%0.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling133011%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton740.001
Justin Reid712.000
Willie Gay410.000
Trent McDuffie410.000
George Karlaftis411.500
Charles Omenihu320.501
Jaylen Watson120.000
Leo Chenal210.000
Chamarri Conner210.000
Tershawn Wharton111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -7.5
Closing total
46
CIN moneyline
+275
KC moneyline
-345

Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 46; the game landed 42 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
36°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
CIN 8 days · KC 6 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Andy Reid