For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Lions167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(3:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +20.8 for CowboysExpected points +8.88 for CowboysThe model had Lions 14 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:40DAL +21% win prob(3:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:21DAL +19% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 9-J.Williams to DAL 14 for 63 yards (26-D.Bland) [11-M.Parsons].
4th · 0:23DET +19% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-J.Goff pass to 82-J.Mitchell is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 2:11DET +17% win prob(2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 87-S.LaPorta INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Wilson at DET 29. 6-D.Wilson to DET 29 for no gain (87-S.LaPorta).
4th · 0:27DAL +17% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:10DET +13% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 6-I.Melifonwu at DET 19. 6-I.Melifonwu to DET 43 for 24 yards (88-C.Lamb).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandin Cooks's 8-yard touchdown catch with 7:25 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:50Michael Badgley·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
1st3:40CeeDee Lamb·92-yd TD catch92-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+73–7
3rd0:27Brandon Aubrey·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+310–10
4th12:21Michael Badgley·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap J.McQuaide+313–10
4th7:25Brandin Cooks·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+713–17
4th1:45Brandon Aubrey·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+313–20
4th0:27Amon-Ra St. Brown·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff · two-point no good+619–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCowboys
Lions6–3Cowboys
420Total yards384
6.5Yards per play6.3
45%Success rate46%
31%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays7
22First downs16
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Lions: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.04Cowboys: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Lions: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Lions: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.33Cowboys: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 65 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Cowboys 3.
NoteLions outgained Cowboys 420-384 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's blitz rate sent, 14.7%, is past their previous low of 18.4% in week 16 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys20.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteDAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.7%, 14.4 points below their season mean of 29.1% and 1.2 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%69 snaps
60Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%69 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Every snap100%69 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%69 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%69 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation72%50 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation64%44 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Heavy rotation62%43 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Rotational39%27 snaps
82James MitchellTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational28%19 snaps
19Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Situational4%3 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Steven GilmoreCBLevi OnwuzurikeDEBrodric MartinDTJulian OkwaraOLBHendon HookerQBBrock WrightTEAntoine GreenWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+25% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:40 · Cowboys · 3rd & 13 at DAL 8 · gained 92 · +8.88 EP · +25.3% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 89 yards from the DAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
39%
Yards
804
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0660%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0677%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1232%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1379%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2820%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2420%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Lions3Cowboys0
Field goal13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 23
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 32
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Cowboys 36
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Lions3Cowboys6
Lions3Cowboys7
Touchdown4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 33
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter39 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Lions 42 to the Cowboys 38
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Drive ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Lions 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Offense on the fieldTwo corners, two inside linebackers, one long snapper, two outside linebackers, one punter, one back, one strong safety and one tight endDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and three backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Cowboys 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Cowboys 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 15
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 36
Lions9Cowboys7
Lions10Cowboys7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Cowboys 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Lions10Cowboys10
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 33
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter61 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Lions13Cowboys10
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Cowboys 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Lions13Cowboys16
Lions13Cowboys17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 8
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Lions 42
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Lions 26
Lions13Cowboys20
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Lions19Cowboys20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 11
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -5.5
Closing total
53
Lions moneyline
+195
Cowboys moneyline
-238
Cowboys closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 53; the game landed 39 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Lions 6 days · Cowboys 6 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Mike McCarthy
4th · 10:25
DAL +13% win prob
(10:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 3-B.Cooks pushed ob at DET 38 for 21 yards (32-B.Branch) [97-A.Hutchinson].
2nd · 14:10DET +12% win prob(14:10) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 5-D.Montgomery INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis at DAL 46. 2-J.Lewis to DAL 46 for no gain (5-D.Montgomery).
