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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 30, 2023 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q1 3:40, 3rd and 13, on CeeDee Lamb — 20.8 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 3:40, Cowboys +20.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:40 · 3rd and 13
CeeDee Lamb
Cowboys
(3:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 13 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 7 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — -0.18 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(3:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandin Cooks's 8-yard touchdown catch with 7:25 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Brandin Cooks8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+713–17
Amon-Ra St. Brown11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Goff · two-point no good+619–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryCowboys
Lions ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 65 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Cowboys 3.
Lions outgained Cowboys 420-384 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DAL's blitz rate sent, 14.7%, is past their previous low of 18.4% in week 16 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-13.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.0 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 64 snaps
Cowboys8.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 79%
Tendencies room →Lions47.9%right on their number · −4.8 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 48 early downs
Cowboys61.7%inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions17.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cowboys24.4%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Lions50.0%right on their number · −9.4 vs their 59.4%, and they swing ±19.9 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 46.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Lions46.3%leaned — sent pressure · +10.9 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys14.7%leaned — sat back · −14.4 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Lions17.1%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys20.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
DAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.7%, 14.4 points below their season mean of 29.1% and 1.2 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
26/38, 345 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
11.3 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected
Passing · DET
19/34, 271 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-2.6 expected points added · -7.1% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
6/8 for 90 yds, 1 TD
25% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
CeeDee Lamb banked 10.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 40.2 | +10.2 | 95% | 98% | 46% | 34% | 1 car, 5 yd · 13/17, 227 yd, 1 TD |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +8.3 | 100% | 89% | 25% | 30% | 1 car, 11 yd · 6/8, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 20.3 | +0.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 345 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Featured Receiver | 17.0 | −2.3 | 78% | 93% | 22% | 44% | 5/8, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.4 | −7.9 | 100% | 89% | 38% | 32% | 7/12, 84 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 12.5 | +2.9 | 39% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 65 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 10.8 | −4.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/34, 271 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +3.1 | 64% | 46% | 9% | 26% | 1 car, 6 yd · 2/3, 69 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | −3.2 | 89% | 98% | 16% | 15% | 4/6, 33 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.9 | −7.7 | 85% | 85% | 8% | 4% | 16 car, 49 yd · 1/3, 0 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −10.9 | 62% | 59% | 9% | 0% | 15 car, 43 yd · 1/3, 0 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.8 | 72% | 70% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Deuce VaughnRB | 2.2 | −0.3 | 12% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.5 | 28% | 38% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 38% | 34% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Peyton HendershotTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.1 | 28% | 22% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| James MitchellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.3 | 28% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:40 · Cowboys · 3rd & 13 at DAL 8 · gained 92 · +8.88 EP · +25.3% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 89 yards from the DAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions3
Cowboys0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Lions3Cowboys6Lions3Cowboys7How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Lions9Cowboys7Lions10Cowboys7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Lions10Cowboys10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions13Cowboys10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Lions13Cowboys16Lions13Cowboys17How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Lions13Cowboys20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions19Cowboys20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/34 | 271 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 1/1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 0 | −7.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 25% | +6.9 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Sutton | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 26/38 | 345 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +11.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_DET_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 53; the game landed 39 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| 38% |
| −2.2 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 69 | 0 | 9% | +3.6 |
| Khalil Dorsey | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 3% | +4.1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −6.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −3.3 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kindle Vildor | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 13 | 17 | 227 | 1 | 46% | +5.0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 60 | 1 | 22% | +3.6 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 16% | −1.0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Wilson | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Markquese Bell | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Demarcus Lawrence | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Parsons | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Bland | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
