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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q1 5:15, 2nd and 10, on Jayden Reed — 12.9 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:15, Packers +12.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:15 · 2nd and 10
Jayden Reed
Packers
(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Vikings at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Vikings at 3 of 10 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Anders Carlson's 34-yard field goal with 6:47 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Anders Carlson34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+33–0Jayden Reed25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Love · kick no good, wide left+623–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 71 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Vikings’s 51 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Vikings 3.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's sack or hit rate, 31.6%, is past their previous high of 23.5% in week 12 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · +2.5σ from their own normal
GB's blitz rate sent turned over: 43.6% in week 16 against 18.4% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Packers2.7 ptsright on their number · +2.3 vs their 0.4 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 71 snaps
Vikings0.9 ptsright on their number · −1.3 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 89%
Tendencies room →Packers41.1%leaned — ran early · −14.3 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 56 early downs
Vikings66.7%inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 50%
Tendencies room →Packers20.6%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Vikings23.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.7%.
Vikings40.0%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±27.9 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 98%
Tendencies room →Packers18.4%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Vikings52.9%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 34%
Tendencies room →Packers31.6%off script — got home · +15.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+2.49× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Vikings8.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
GB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.6%, 15.0 points above their season mean of 16.6% and 2.5 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
24/33, 256 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.0 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
13/22, 113 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.2 expected points added · -6.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jayden Reed banked 10.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 28.4 | +8.6 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 24/33, 256 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Jayden ReedWR · Featured Receiver | 26.9 | +10.8 | 31% | 44% | 24% | 40% | 6/8, 89 yd, 2 TD |
| Bo MeltonWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.5 | +3.8 | 66% | 71% | 26% | 31% | 6/9, 105 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 14.0 | +2.3 | 57% | 62% | 3% | 0% | 20 car, 120 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Featured Receiver | 13.9 | +3.8 | 77% | 84% | 23% | 9% | 4/7, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.9 | −7.0 | 100% | 100% | 32% | 50% | 5/10, 59 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +2.1 | 82% | 91% | 18% | 3% | 6/6, 48 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.4 | −1.1 | 57% | 47% | 10% | 0% | 10 car, 40 yd · 3/3, 24 yd |
| Nick MullensQB | 9.1 | −2.3 | 55% | — | 0% | — | 13/22, 113 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −3.8 | 76% | 85% | 18% | 22% | 3/6, 28 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −2.4 | 92% | 92% | 16% | 32% | 3/5, 28 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 5.0 | +0.7 | 40% | 47% | 6% | 0% | 3 car, 17 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 3.0 | −1.1 | 27% | 29% | 0% | — | 8 car, 30 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 2.7 | −3.0 | 16% | 9% | 0% | — | 7 car, 27 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.5 | 45% | 29% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Malik HeathWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.5 | 62% | 53% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Ben SimsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.1 | 55% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Sean CliffordQB | 1.3 | +0.6 | 11% | — | 0% | — | 1/1, 37 yd · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Samori ToureWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −0.7 | 12% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, -6 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 17% | 13% | 6% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jaren HallQB | -0.9 | −4.6 | 45% | — | 0% | — | 5/10, 67 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Hall pass short middle intended for 86-J.Mundt INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Ballentine at MIN 33. 35-C.Ballentine to MIN 33 for no gain (86-J.Mundt).
Q1 6:04 · Vikings · 2nd & 7 at MIN 28 · gained nothing · -5.07 EP · −13.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 90 yards from the GB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers3
Vikings0How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Packers9Vikings0Packers10Vikings0Packers10Vikings3Packers16Vikings3Packers17Vikings3How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Packers23Vikings3Packers29Vikings3Packers30Vikings3Packers30Vikings9Packers30Vikings10Packers33Vikings10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 24/33 | 256 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +14.0 |
| Sean Clifford | 1/1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 20 | 120 | 6.0 | 0 | +4.9 |
| Patrick Taylor | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Melton | 6 | 9 | 105 | 1 | 26% | +5.5 |
| Jayden Reed | 6 | 8 | 89 | 2 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keisean Nixon | 6 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Quay Walker | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 13/22 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −4.2 |
| Jaren Hall | 5/10 | 67 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_GB_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 43 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| A.J. Dillon | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | −0.2 |
| Sean Clifford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| +7.7 |
| Tucker Kraft | 6 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 18% | +1.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 18% | −0.1 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 | 3% | −1.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Corey Ballentine | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Carrington Valentine | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| −15.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Jaren Hall | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 10 | 59 | 0 | 32% | −0.6 |
| Johnny Mundt | 4 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 23% | −4.5 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16% | −1.9 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −3.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Pace | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jones | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
