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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay33
BY 23final margin
VikingsMinnesota10
Green Bay Packers 33 at Minnesota Vikings 10. Final.
Vikings -1 upsetO 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 17
Green Bay Packers 33, Vikings 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:15, 2nd and 10, on Jayden Reed — 12.9 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:15 · 2nd and 10
Jayden Reed
Packers
(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:15, Packers +12.9% win probability on one snap.
12.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Corey BallentinePackersQ1 6:04(6:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Hall pass short middle intended for 86-J.Mundt INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Ballentine at MIN 33. 35-C.Ballentine to MIN 33 for no gain (86-J.Mundt).
7.2pts
Jaren HallPackersQ2 0:32(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Hall sacked at MIN 37 for -9 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at MIN 38, RECOVERED by GB-94-K.Brooks at MIN 37.
8.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Vikings at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 9 of 14 on third down, against Vikings at 3 of 10 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Packers156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.9 for VikingsExpected points −3.64 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:15MIN +13% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:32GB +8% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Hall sacked at MIN 37 for -9 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at MIN 38, RECOVERED by GB-94-K.Brooks at MIN 37.
1st · 6:04GB +7% win prob(6:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Hall pass short middle intended for 86-J.Mundt INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Ballentine at MIN 33. 35-C.Ballentine to MIN 33 for no gain (86-J.Mundt).
1st · 9:01MIN +7% win prob(9:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 80-B.Melton to MIN 37 for 12 yards (24-C.Bynum, 40-I.Pace).
1st · 14:08MIN +7% win prob(14:08) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to MIN 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 23 for no gain (22-R.Rochell).
1st · 14:14GB +7% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Anders Carlson's 34-yard field goal with 6:47 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:47Anders Carlson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+33–0
1st5:15Jayden Reed·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+710–0
2nd9:30Greg Joseph·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+310–3
2nd0:17Jayden Reed·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love · kick no good, wide left+623–3
3rd0:54Bo Melton·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+730–3
4th14:10Johnny Mundt·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+730–10
4th6:15Anders Carlson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+333–10
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers9–0Vikings
472Total yards212
6.6Yards per play4.2
54%Success rate37%
64%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays2
26First downs11
0Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Packers: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.34Vikings: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.48Packers: +0.48 expected points added per play
−0.47Vikings: −0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Packers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 71 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Vikings’s 51 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Vikings 3.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 31.6%, is past their previous high of 23.5% in week 12 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
GB's blitz rate sent turned over: 43.6% in week 16 against 18.4% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
off script — got home · +15.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+2.49× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Vikings8.8%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.6%, 15.0 points above their season mean of 16.6% and 2.5 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hall pass−13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Hall pass short middle intended for 86-J.Mundt INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Ballentine at MIN 33. 35-C.Ballentine to MIN 33 for no gain (86-J.Mundt).
Q1 6:04 · Vikings · 2nd & 7 at MIN 28 · gained nothing · -5.07 EP · −13.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 90 yards from the GB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2879%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR36+0.1231%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.4366%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5445%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 23
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 32
Packers3Vikings0
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Vikings 16
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 28
Packers9Vikings0
Packers10Vikings0
Touchdown3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Vikings 33
2nd quarter45 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Vikings 24
Packers10Vikings3
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Packers 35
Packers16Vikings3
Packers17Vikings3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 2
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 46
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Vikings 46
Packers23Vikings3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Vikings 25
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Packers 8
Packers29Vikings3
Packers30Vikings3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Vikings 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 26
4th quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Packers30Vikings9
Packers30Vikings10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Packers 6
Packers33Vikings10
Field goal15 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 12
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Packers 10
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Vikings 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
