For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending.mdto eligible URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown.
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
33
10
Green Bay Packers 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:15, MIN +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(6:47) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 0(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 10 — MIN 0(9:30) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 10 — MIN 3(4:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 17 — MIN 3(:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 11-J.Reed for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: GB 23 — MIN 3(:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 80-B.Melton for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 30 — MIN 3(14:10) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short left to 86-J.Mundt for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-P.Smith]. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 30 — MIN 10(6:15) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: GB 33 — MIN 10Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 71 | 51 |
| Total yards | 472 (edge) | 212 |
| Yards per play | 6.6 (edge) | 4.2 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.27 (edge) | -0.34 |
| Success rate | 54% (edge) | 37% |
| Dropback rate | 48% | 75% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.48 (edge) | -0.47 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.09 (edge) | 0.03 |
| Third downs | 9/14 (edge) | 3/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 10 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 26 (edge) | 11 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
24/33, 256 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.0 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
13/22, 113 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.2 expected points added · -6.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | GB 20 | 5 | 3 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 2 | MIN | MIN 23 | 4 | 9 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 3 | GB | GB 20 | 12 | 64 | 5:53 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | MIN | MIN 25 | 3 | 3 | 0:45 | Interception | |
| 5 | GB | MIN 33 | 3 | 33 | 0:48 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | MIN | MIN 20 | 7 | 19 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 7 | GB | GB 26 | 7 | 45 | 4:09 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | MIN | MIN 24 | 7 | 40 | 3:54 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | GB | GB 25 | 12 | 67 | 5:26 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | MIN | MIN 19 | 7 | 12 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 11 | GB | GB 12 | 5 | 16 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 12 | MIN | MIN 38 | 2 | 0 | 0:13 | Fumble | |
| 13 | GB | MIN 37 | 4 | 37 | 0:18 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 14 | MIN | MIN 33 | 2 | 0 | 0:08 | End of half | |
| 15 | MIN | MIN 43 | 11 | 58 | 6:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | GB | GB 10 | 14 | 90 | 8:00 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | MIN | MIN 17 | 5 | 12 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 18 | MIN | GB 7 | 3 | 7 | 0:44 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | GB | GB 25 | 14 | 57 | 7:55 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | MIN | MIN 23 | 14 | 52 | 3:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | GB | GB 10 | 8 | 60 | 2:56 | End of game |
8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 24/33 | 256 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Sean Clifford | 1/1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 20 | 120 | 6.0 | 0 | 4.9 |
| Patrick Taylor | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 | -0.8 |
| A.J. Dillon | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Sean Clifford |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Melton | 6 | 9 | 105 | 1 | 26% | 5.5 |
| Jayden Reed | 6 | 8 | 89 | 2 | 24% | 7.7 |
| Tucker Kraft | 6 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keisean Nixon | 6 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Quay Walker | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Ballentine |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 13/22 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4.2 |
| Jaren Hall | 5/10 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -15.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 43 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| -2 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| -2.6 |
| 1.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 18% | -0.1 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | 1.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | 1.4 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 0.2 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 | 3% | -1.7 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| Carrington Valentine | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Ty Chandler | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Jaren Hall | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 10 | 59 | 0 | 32% | -0.6 |
| Johnny Mundt | 4 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 23% | -4.5 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16% | -1.9 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | 1.4 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | 0.3 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | 0.4 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -3.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Pace | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jones | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
