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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

33

Minnesota Vikings

10

MIN -1 upsetO 42.5 ✓Dome

Green Bay Packers 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:15, MIN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑GB ↓
Q1 · 5:15GB 9 — MIN 0GB ball · 2nd & 10GB 62%

(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 5:15MIN +13% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 0:32GB +8% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Hall sacked at MIN 37 for -9 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at MIN 38, RECOVERED by GB-94-K.Brooks at MIN 37.
  3. Q1 · 6:04GB +7% win prob(6:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Hall pass short middle intended for 86-J.Mundt INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Ballentine at MIN 33. 35-C.Ballentine to MIN 33 for no gain (86-J.Mundt).
  4. Q1 · 9:01MIN +7% win prob(9:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 80-B.Melton to MIN 37 for 12 yards (24-C.Bynum, 40-I.Pace).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:47GB Field goal

    (6:47) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 0
  2. Q1 · 5:15GB Touchdown

    (5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 10 — MIN 0
  3. Q2 · 9:30MIN Field goal

    (9:30) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: GB 10 — MIN 3
  4. Q2 · 4:02GB Touchdown

    (4:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — MIN 3
  5. Q2 · 0:17GB Touchdown

    (:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 11-J.Reed for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 23 — MIN 3
  6. Q3 · 0:54GB Touchdown

    (:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 80-B.Melton for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 30 — MIN 3
  7. Q4 · 14:10MIN Touchdown

    (14:10) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short left to 86-J.Mundt for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-P.Smith]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 30 — MIN 10
  8. Q4 · 6:15GB Field goal

    (6:15) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 33 — MIN 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersVikings
Offensive plays7151
Total yards472 (edge)212
Yards per play6.6 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play0.27 (edge)-0.34
Success rate54% (edge)37%
Dropback rate48%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.48 (edge)-0.47
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.09 (edge)0.03
Third downs9/14 (edge)3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)11
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

24/33, 256 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.0 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Nick MullensQB

13/22, 113 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.2 expected points added · -6.3% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

20 att, 120 yds, 0 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Ty ChandlerRB

10 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Bo MeltonWR

6/9 for 105 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Jayden ReedWR

6/8 for 89 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 20530:59Punt
2MINMIN 23491:25Punt
3GBGB 2012645:53Field goal +3
4MINMIN 25330:45Interception
5GBMIN 333330:48Touchdown +7
6MINMIN 207192:42Punt
7GBGB 267454:09Turnover on downs
8MINMIN 247403:54Field goal +3
9GBGB 2512675:26Touchdown +7
10MINMIN 197122:12Punt
11GBGB 125161:08Punt
12MINMIN 38200:13Fumble
13GBMIN 374370:18Touchdown +6
14MINMIN 33200:08End of half
15MINMIN 4311586:11Turnover on downs
16GBGB 1014908:00Touchdown +7
17MINMIN 175120:59Punt
18MINGB 7370:44Touchdown +7
19GBGB 2514577:55Field goal +3
20MINMIN 2314523:15Turnover on downs
21GBGB 108602:56End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love24/3325630014.0
Sean Clifford1/1370002.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones201206.004.9
Patrick Taylor8303.80-0.8
A.J. Dillon7273.90-0.7
Jordan Love221.01-0.2
Sean Clifford2-2-1.00-2.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Bo Melton69105126%5.5
Jayden Reed6889224%7.7
Tucker Kraft6648018%1.8
Romeo Doubs3628018%-0.1
Malik Heath121306%1.4
Aaron Jones111003%1.4
Ben Sims11603%0.2
Samori Toure11-603%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Keisean Nixon640.501
Quay Walker241.000
Eric Wilson330.000
Corey Ballentine410.013
Carrington Valentine130.000
Jonathan Owens310.001
Isaiah McDuffie120.501
Rashan Gary120.000
Devonte Wyatt020.500
Lukas Van Ness110.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Nick Mullens13/22113101-4.2
Jaren Hall5/1067013-15.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ty Chandler10404.00-0.2
Alexander Mattison3175.700.5
Nick Mullens166.001.4
Jaren Hall242.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson51059032%-0.6
Johnny Mundt4739123%-4.5
Jordan Addison3528016%-1.9
Ty Chandler3324010%1.4
Josh Oliver121706%0.3
Alexander Mattison221306%0.4
Brandon Powell02006%-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ivan Pace470.000
Camryn Bynum450.000
Patrick Jones540.000
Josh Metellus610.000
Khyiris Tonga140.000
Akayleb Evans400.000
Mekhi Blackmon400.000
Harrison Smith220.000
Jordan Hicks130.000
Harrison Phillips130.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -1
Closing total
42.5
GB moneyline
-108
MIN moneyline
-112

Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 43 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
GB 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Kevin O'Connell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.