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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChargersLos Angeles9
BY 7final margin
BroncosDenver16
Los Angeles Chargers 9 at Denver Broncos 16. Final.
Broncos -3.5 ✓U 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 17
Denver Broncos 16, Chargers 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 6:52, 3rd and 8, on Lil'Jordan Humphrey — 15.8 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:52 · 3rd and 8
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
Broncos
(6:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Denver Broncos 16–9. Biggest swing: Q2 6:52, Broncos +15.8% win probability on one snap.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alex EricksonChargersQ2 11:13(11:13) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 82-A.Erickson to DEN 20 for 27 yards (31-J.Simmons).
7.0pts
Austin EkelerBroncosQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 40 for 2 yards (93-D.Jones, 47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (93-D.Jones), RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at LAC 38. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
8.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Chargers at 2 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 7 of 18 on third down, against Chargers at 2 of 11 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 1 giveaway.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.24 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.41 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chargers168 of 178 plays carry both curves
(6:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.8 for BroncosExpected points +6.04 for BroncosThe model had Chargers 3 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:52DEN +16% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00LAC +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 40 for 2 yards (93-D.Jones, 47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (93-D.Jones), RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at LAC 38. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 11:13DEN +7% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 82-A.Erickson to DEN 20 for 27 yards (31-J.Simmons).
2nd · 9:46DEN +7% win prob(9:46) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
4th · 12:52DEN +7% win prob(12:52) 75-Q.Bailey reported in as eligible. 4-J.Stidham pass incomplete deep right to 10-J.Jeudy (32-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at LAC 29 - No Play.
1st · 7:09DEN +6% win prob(7:09) (Shotgun) 25-S.Perine up the middle to LAC 41 for 5 yards (91-C.Hinton; 6-E.Kendricks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lil'Jordan Humphrey's 54-yard touchdown catch with 6:52 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:58Wil Lutz·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+30–3
2nd9:46Cameron Dicker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–3
2nd1:57Wil Lutz·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+33–13
3rd6:24Cameron Dicker·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+36–13
4th11:22Wil Lutz·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+36–16
4th1:21Cameron Dicker·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+39–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBroncos
Chargers3–5Broncos
301Total yards315
4.9Yards per play4.8
39%Success rate42%
18%Third-down rate39%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays6
16First downs15
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Chargers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.05Broncos: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Chargers: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.11Broncos: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.41Chargers: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.24Broncos: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Broncos’s 65 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 1, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 30.8% in week 16 against 15.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Broncos5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.3%, 9.8 points below their season mean of 15.0% and 1.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
70Rashawn SlaterT · Every snap100%65 snaps
68Jamaree SalyerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
79Trey PipkinsT · Every snap100%65 snaps
71Jordan McFaddenG · Every snap100%65 snaps
64Brenden JaimesG · Every snap100%65 snaps
2Easton StickQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
82Alex EricksonWR · Full-time94%61 snaps
1Quentin JohnstonWR · Full-time91%59 snaps
86Keelan DossWR · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation72%47 snaps
7Gerald EverettTE · Heavy rotation69%45 snaps
84Stone SmarttTE · Rotational29%19 snaps
12Derius DavisWR · Situational20%13 snaps
28Isaiah SpillerRB · Situational18%12 snaps
83Nick VannettTE · Situational17%11 snaps
25Joshua KelleyRB · Situational9%6 snaps
15Jalen GuytonWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Nicholas WilliamsDTJ.T. WoodsFSZion JohnsonGKenneth MurrayILBDonald ParhamTEJosh PalmerWRKeenan AllenWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Cameron TomCWill GrierQBAusten PleasantsT
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%69 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Jarrett StidhamQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Full-time97%67 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Full-time97%67 snaps
89Brandon JohnsonWR · Full-time84%58 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Full-time80%55 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation65%45 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational49%34 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational48%33 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Rotational45%31 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational41%28 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational41%28 snaps
85Lucas KrullTE · Rotational33%23 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Rotational28%19 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational20%14 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Situational20%14 snaps
75Quinn BaileyG · Situational14%10 snaps
45Nate AdkinsTE · Situational4%3 snaps
31Justin SimmonsFS · Situational3%2 snaps
83Michael BandyWR · Situational3%2 snaps
60Luke WattenbergC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Alex ForsythCElijah GarciaDEBaron BrowningILBThomas IncoomOLBJ.L. SkinnerSSCourtland SuttonWRMarvin MimsWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Stidham pass+17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:52 · Broncos · 3rd & 8 at DEN 46 · gained 54 · +6.04 EP · +16.7% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0761%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0961%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2370%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.5457%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0843%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2920%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 34
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 19
Chargers0Broncos3
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Chargers 8
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 33
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt5 plays
Chargers3Broncos3
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Broncos 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chargers3Broncos9
Chargers3Broncos10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 46
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 44
Chargers3Broncos13
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 25
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 45
No good5 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Chargers 30
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 48
Chargers6Broncos13
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Broncos 32
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 30
4th quarter50 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Chargers6Broncos16
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 38 to the Chargers 1
No good13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 32
The period ended11 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Chargers 47
Chargers9Broncos16
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Broncos 34
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
