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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

Los Angeles Chargers

9

Denver BroncosWinner

16

DEN -3.5 ✓U 39.5 ✓

Denver Broncos 16–9. Biggest swing: Q2 6:52, DEN +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑LAC ↓
Q2 · 6:52LAC 3 — DEN 9DEN ball · 3rd & 8DEN 62%

(6:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 6:52DEN +16% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 15:00LAC +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 40 for 2 yards (93-D.Jones, 47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (93-D.Jones), RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at LAC 38. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  3. Q2 · 11:13DEN +7% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 82-A.Erickson to DEN 20 for 27 yards (31-J.Simmons).
  4. Q2 · 9:46DEN +7% win prob(9:46) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:58DEN Field goal

    (3:58) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LAC 0 — DEN 3
  2. Q2 · 9:46LAC Field goal

    (9:46) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 3
  3. Q2 · 6:52DEN Touchdown

    (6:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 10
  4. Q2 · 1:57DEN Field goal

    (1:57) 16-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 13
  5. Q3 · 6:24LAC Field goal

    (6:24) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — DEN 13
  6. Q4 · 11:22DEN Field goal

    (11:22) 16-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — DEN 16
  7. Q4 · 1:21LAC Field goal

    (1:21) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 9 — DEN 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersBroncos
Offensive plays6265
Total yards301315 (edge)
Yards per play4.9 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play-0.14-0.05 (edge)
Success rate39%42% (edge)
Dropback rate61%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.030.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.41-0.24 (edge)
Third downs2/117/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)26 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps16 (edge)15
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers10 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Jarrett StidhamQB

20/32, 224 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.7 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Easton StickQB

24/38, 220 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.7 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

13 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Jaleel McLaughlinRB

8 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Alex EricksonWR

7/8 for 98 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR

2/4 for 69 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 25581:09Punt
2DENDEN 207142:30Punt
3LACLAC 15441:37Punt
4DENDEN 3411585:49Field goal +3
5LACLAC 257261:41Punt
6DENDEN 109163:59Punt
7LACLAC 408423:32Field goal +3
8DENDEN 258753:06Touchdown +7
9LACLAC 257293:46Turnover on downs
10DENLAC 426170:58Field goal +3
11LACLAC 259331:29Punt
12DENDEN 154550:24Missed field goal
13DENDEN 258204:13Punt
14LACLAC 109534:27Field goal +3
15DENDEN 2510214:36Punt
16LACLAC 125261:51Fumble
17DENLAC 387183:34Field goal +3
18LACLAC 2513435:00Missed field goal
19DENDEN 408213:20Punt
20LACLAC 209371:42Field goal +3
21DENDEN 48301:17End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Easton Stick24/38220001-0.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler13463.50-5.3
Easton Stick5316.201.4
Gerald Everett166.000.2
Joshua Kelley221.00-2.0
Derius Davis122.00-0.3
Nick Niemann100.00-2.8
Isaiah Spiller1-1-1.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alex Erickson7898022%5.4
Gerald Everett4931024%-3.2
Quentin Johnston3629016%1.6
Keelan Doss5825022%-1.5
Stone Smartt222305%1.3
Isaiah Spiller221005%-0.3
Austin Ekeler12405%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Kendricks490.001
Derwin James751.002
Nick Niemann450.000
Michael Davis510.000
Khalil Mack421.000
Daiyan Henley130.000
Otito Ogbonnia210.000
Essang Bassey110.001
Alohi Gilman110.002
Asante Samuel100.001

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jarrett Stidham20/322241024.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaleel McLaughlin8445.501.5
Javonte Williams15412.70-6.1
Samaje Perine4102.50-0.9
Jarrett Stidham661.00-2.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Lil'Jordan Humphrey2469113%6.7
Jerry Jeudy3654020%-2.1
Brandon Johnson4627020%1.4
Jaleel McLaughlin3318010%1.4
Javonte Williams3317010%0.3
Samaje Perine221607%0.6
Lucas Krull221407%1.3
Adam Trautman12907%0.2
Phillip Dorsett02007%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josey Jewell270.000
Alex Singleton540.000
P.J. Locke510.001
Justin Simmons600.000
Patrick Surtain300.001
Drew Sanders210.000
D.J. Jones120.000
Fabian Moreau300.000
Ronnie Perkins200.000
Matt Henningsen110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Closing total
39.5
LAC moneyline
+164
DEN moneyline
-198

Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 25 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
41°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
LAC 8 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Giff Smith vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.