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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Rams169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:35) 21-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Swing −33.2 for GiantsExpected points −1.30 for GiantsThe model had Giants 6 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:35LA +33% win prob(:35) 21-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
4th · 3:49LA +24% win prob(3:49) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to NYG 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:04NYG +23% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles right tackle to LA 34 for 31 yards (43-J.Johnson).
3rd · 4:50NYG +14% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:52NYG +12% win prob(10:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua pushed ob at NYG 2 for 80 yards (24-D.Belton).
3rd · 2:20LA +12% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle intended for 15-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Belton at NYG 46. 24-D.Belton ran ob at LA 34 for 20 yards (89-T.Higbee).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cooper Kupp's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:48 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
2nd1:48Cooper Kupp·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+714–7
2nd0:00Mason Crosby·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+314–10
3rd10:22Kyren Williams·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+620–10
3rd4:50Darius Slayton·80-yd TD catch80-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyrod Taylorfrom Tyrod Taylor · kick no good, wide right+620–16
4th13:28Mason Crosby·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+320–19
4th12:10Kyren Williams·28-yd TD run28-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+626–19
4th3:49Gunner Olszewski·94-yd return TD94-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick · two-point no good+626–25
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryGiants
Rams6–3Giants
392Total yards389
6.5Yards per play5.8
48%Success rate39%
25%Third-down rate31%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays7
22First downs16
4Sacks taken6
3Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Rams: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.07Giants: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.03Giants: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Rams: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.17Giants: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Giants’s 67 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Giants 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's blitz rate sent, 81.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 28.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 63.4% in week 16.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.6 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.9% in week 16 against 18.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Giants18.4%
leaned — got home · +6.6 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteNYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 81.6%, 38.4 points above their season mean of 43.2% and 2.1 times their own 18.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Evans punts−38% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:49) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to NYG 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:49 · Rams · 4th & 17 at LA 36 · gained nothing · -6.30 EP · −37.8% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 91 yards from the NYG 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
39%
Yards
780
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.0263%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.0174%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3783%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2150%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Giants 21
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 26
Rams6Giants0
Rams7Giants0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Giants 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Rams 46
2nd quarter49 plays
Rams7Giants6
Rams7Giants7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Rams 24
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 42
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 23
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 42
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 47
Rams13Giants7
Rams14Giants7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Giants 5
Intercepted5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
Rams14Giants10
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 43 to the Rams 13
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Rams 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Rams20Giants10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Giants 2
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 40
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 23
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Rams20Giants16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 25
4th quarter58 plays
Rams20Giants19
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Rams 10
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Rams26Giants19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Giants 28
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Rams 33
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 38
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 28
Rams26Giants25
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 26
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
No good7 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Rams 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -6
Closing total
43.5
Rams moneyline
-298
Giants moneyline
+240
Rams closed -6, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 51 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Rams 10 days · Giants 6 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Brian Daboll
2nd · 13:11
NYG +10% win prob
(13:11) 17-W.Robinson right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:43LA +10% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua to NYG 17 for 4 yards (22-A.Jackson). New York Giants challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-P.Nacua.
