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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

20

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

23

IND -3.5 no coverO 42.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 14:00, IND +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑LV ↓
Q1 · 14:00LV 0 — IND 0IND ball · 3rd & 5IND 59%

(14:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs pushed ob at LV 20 for 50 yards (18-J.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:00IND +12% win prob(14:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs pushed ob at LV 20 for 50 yards (18-J.Jones).
  2. Q3 · 6:36IND +10% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 4:02IND +8% win prob(4:02) 65-J.Sills reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 3:42IND +7% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to LV 20 for 20 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:15IND Touchdown

    (12:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 0 — IND 7
  2. Q1 · 6:01LV Field goal

    (6:01) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 7
  3. Q2 · 4:02IND Touchdown

    (4:02) 65-J.Sills reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 3 — IND 14
  4. Q3 · 6:36LV Touchdown

    (6:36) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — IND 14
  5. Q3 · 1:21IND Field goal

    (1:21) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — IND 17
  6. Q4 · 7:37IND Field goal

    (7:37) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — IND 20
  7. Q4 · 4:39LV Field goal

    (4:39) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 13 — IND 20
  8. Q4 · 3:15IND Field goal

    (3:15) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: LV 13 — IND 23
  9. Q4 · 0:46LV Touchdown

    (:46) (No Huddle) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 20 — IND 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersColts
Offensive plays7452
Total yards370 (edge)350
Yards per play5.06.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.080.14 (edge)
Success rate43% (edge)40%
Dropback rate66%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.170.43 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11 (edge)-0.13
Third downs5/156/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)28 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)15
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers00

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

30/47, 299 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

15/23, 224 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.5 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 96 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Zamir WhiteRB

20 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

13/21 for 126 yds, 2 TD

46% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

6/10 for 56 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 258752:49Touchdown +7
2LVLV 2513596:14Field goal +3
3INDIND 255-91:00Punt
4LVLV 334101:13Punt
5INDIND 6491:41Punt
6LVLV 406222:03Punt
7INDIND 67303:39Punt
8LVLV 249284:16Punt
9INDIND 107903:12Touchdown +7
10LVLV 258332:59Punt
11INDIND 63110:54End of half
12LVLV 2517658:29Touchdown +7
13INDIND 2513655:14Field goal +3
14LVLV 259183:03Punt
15INDIND 249615:40Field goal +3
16LVLV 2512602:59Field goal +3
17INDIND 258181:24Field goal +3
18LVLV 2511752:28Touchdown +7
19INDIND 49200:43End of game

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 90 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aidan O'Connell30/472992028.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zamir White20713.50-2.8
Brandon Bolden263.001.1
Ameer Abdullah144.00-0.1
Aidan O'Connell231.50-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams1321126246%5.6
Jakobi Meyers61056022%-1.9
Tre Tucker2536011%1.8
Zamir White5635013%0.4
Austin Hooper332807%2.4
Ameer Abdullah111802%3.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nate Hobbs340.000
Maxx Crosby330.000
Robert Spillane410.000
Amik Robertson310.000
Jack Jones220.000
John Jenkins220.000
Bilal Nichols130.000
Marcus Epps120.000
Trevon Moehrig210.000
Malcolm Koonce120.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew15/2322410111.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor21964.61-1.0
Trey Sermon5326.40-1.3
Gardner Minshew231.50-0.8
Tyler Goodson133.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce115815%5.3
Josh Downs2253010%4.0
Michael Pittman5746035%2.8
Will Mallory111905%2.6
Mo Alie-Cox2318015%-0.6
Kylen Granson1313015%0.8
Trey Sermon229010%0.1
Jonathan Taylor11805%0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed740.000
Nick Cross360.000
Zaire Franklin530.001
Julius Brents330.003
DeForest Buckner311.000
Ronnie Harrison220.000
Kwity Paye120.000
Jaylon Jones300.001
Samson Ebukam120.000
Chris Lammons120.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -3.5
Closing total
42.5
LV moneyline
+150
IND moneyline
-180

Colts closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 43 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
LV 6 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Antonio Pierce vs Shane Steichen