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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Raiders168 of 177 plays carry both curves
(14:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs pushed ob at LV 20 for 50 yards (18-J.Jones).
Swing +12.1 for ColtsExpected points +4.32 for ColtsThe model had Raiders 7 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:00IND +12% win prob(14:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs pushed ob at LV 20 for 50 yards (18-J.Jones).
3rd · 6:36IND +10% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:02IND +8% win prob(4:02) 65-J.Sills reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:42IND +7% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to LV 20 for 20 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
2nd · 13:43IND +6% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 86-W.Mallory to IND 27 for 19 yards (41-R.Spillane).
1st · 10:25IND +6% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at IND 34 for 24 yards (20-N.Cross).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 12:15 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:15Jonathan Taylor·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st6:01Daniel Carlson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–7
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Colts, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Raiders: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.14Colts: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Raiders: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.43Colts: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Raiders: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.13Colts: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 74 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Colts’s 52 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 3, Colts 4.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's play-action rate, 48.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 16.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
LV's blitz rate sent turned over: 5.2% in week 16 against 32.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Colts12.2%
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteIND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 48.0%, 25.7 points above their season mean of 22.3% and 2.0 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew pass+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs pushed ob at LV 20 for 50 yards (18-J.Jones).
Q1 14:00 · Colts · 3rd & 5 at IND 30 · gained 50 · +4.32 EP · +14.2% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 90 yards from the IND 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
39%
Yards
719
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.1376%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0436%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0369%
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR9-0.0122%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3133%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Raiders0Colts6
Raiders0Colts7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 5
Raiders3Colts7
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 21
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Raiders 38
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Colts 15
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Colts 38
2nd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Colts 27
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Colts 43
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Raiders3Colts13
Raiders3Colts14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 42
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Colts 13
3rd quarter37 plays
Raiders9Colts14
Raiders10Colts14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 1
Raiders10Colts17
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 19
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
4th quarter56 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Colts 45
Raiders10Colts20
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Raiders 15
Raiders13Colts20
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 15
Raiders13Colts23
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 27
Raiders19Colts23
Raiders20Colts23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
