2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -3 ✓O 47 ✓Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 37.

Baltimore Ravens 56–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:10, BAL +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:10MIA 13 — BAL 20BAL ball · 1st & 10BAL 63%

(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:10BAL +19% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:41BAL +12% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 20 for 25 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
Q1 · 5:56BAL +10% win prob(5:56) 28-D.Achane left end pushed ob at BAL 12 for 45 yards (32-M.Williams).
Q2 · 7:21BAL +10% win prob(7:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 3-O.Beckham ran ob at MIA 1 for 33 yards. Miami challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:04MIA Touchdown
(11:04) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BAL 0
Q1 · 6:44BAL Touchdown
(6:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 43-J.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BAL 7
Q1 · 3:42MIA Field goal
(3:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 10 — BAL 7
Q2 · 6:59BAL Touchdown
(6:59) 35-G.Edwards right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 10 — BAL 14
Q2 · 3:14MIA Field goal
(3:14) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 13 — BAL 14
Q2 · 3:10BAL Touchdown
(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 13 — BAL 21
Q2 · 1:32BAL Touchdown
(1:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 13 — BAL 28
Q3 · 13:35BAL Touchdown
(13:35) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-I.Likely for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 13 — BAL 35
Q4 · 14:03MIA Touchdown
(14:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIA 19 — BAL 35
Q4 · 9:43BAL Touchdown
(9:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 42-P.Ricard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 19 — BAL 42
Q4 · 4:19BAL Touchdown
(4:19) (Shotgun) 33-M.Gordon up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 19 — BAL 49
Q4 · 2:33BAL Touchdown
(2:33) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep middle to 88-C.Kolar for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 19 — BAL 56

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Ravens
Offensive plays	67	53
Total yards	375	493 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	9.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.61 (edge)
Success rate	39%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	1.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	6/15	4/7 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.61 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18/21, 321 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

29.0 expected points added · +23.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

22/38, 237 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

14 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

16 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

3/3 for 106 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

6/12 for 76 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	10	75	4:00	Touchdown +7
2	BAL	BAL 25	9	85	4:21	Touchdown +7
3	MIA	MIA 27	7	65	3:00	Field goal +3
4	BAL	BAL 25	6	27	3:22	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 15	7	26	2:31	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 11	11	89	5:50	Touchdown +7
7	MIA	MIA 31	12	49	3:46	Field goal +3
8	BAL	BAL 25	3	75	0:12	Touchdown +7
9	MIA	MIA 25	4	31	1:08	Interception
10	BAL	MIA 38	5	38	0:26	Touchdown +7
11	MIA	MIA 25	8	23	1:22	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 20	1	0	0:02	End of half
13	BAL	MIA 18	5	18	1:31	Touchdown +7
14	MIA	MIA 25	6	15	2:55	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 23	5	36	2:15	Fumble
16	MIA	MIA 46	1	0	0:06	Interception
17	BAL	BAL 37	4	8	2:34	Punt
18	MIA	MIA 22	15	73	6:42	Touchdown +6
19	BAL	BAL 25	9	75	4:19	Touchdown +7
20	MIA	MIA 26	5	6	1:43	Turnover on downs
21	BAL	MIA 32	7	29	3:44	Touchdown +7
22	MIA	MIA 25	2	0	0:08	Fumble
23	BAL	MIA 8	4	13	1:35	Touchdown +7
24	MIA	MIA 25	5	12	2:16	Turnover on downs
25	BAL	MIA 33	1	0	0:12	End of game

12 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 89 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	22/38	237	2	2	3	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devon Achane	14	107	7.6	1.8
Jeffery Wilson	3	21	7.0	1.4
Tua Tagovailoa	2	14	7.0	-2.5
Christopher Brooks	4	12	3.0	-2.9
Tyreek Hill	1	0	0.0	-0.5
Mike White	1	0	0.0	-6.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	6	12	76	0	33%	-1.2
Durham Smythe	3	3	54	0	8%	5.5
Devon Achane	4	5	30	1	14%	1.3
Cedrick Wilson	2	4	27	1	11%	-1.0
Alec Ingold	1	2	18	0	6%	0.7
Jeffery Wilson	3	4	13	0	11%	-0.5
Braxton Berrios	2	2	10	0	6%	1.6
Julian Hill	1	1	9	0	3%	0.0
Chase Claypool	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Robbie Chosen	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5
River Cracraft	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
DeShon Elliott	5	3	0.0	0
David Long Jr.	5	2	0.0	0
Duke Riley	5	1	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	2	2	1.0	0
Bradley Chubb	1	2	0.0	0
Eli Apple	2	1	0.0	1
Raekwon Davis	1	2	0.0	0
Jevon Holland	3	0	0.0	0
Da'Shawn Hand	1	2	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	2	0	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	18/21	321	5	0	1	29.0
Tyler Huntley	1/1	19	1	0	0	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Gus Edwards	16	68	4.3	1	-4.7
Justice Hill	3	48	16.0	0	3.2
Lamar Jackson	6	35	5.8	0	-0.9
Melvin Gordon	6	10	1.7	1	1.2
Tyler Huntley	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	3	3	106	1	14%	7.8
Justice Hill	5	5	64	1	23%	7.8
Rashod Bateman	4	6	54	0	27%	2.3
Isaiah Likely	2	3	42	2	14%	6.7
Odell Beckham	1	1	33	0	5%	3.2
Charlie Kolar	1	1	19	1	5%	4.2
Nelson Agholor	2	2	18	0	9%	0.5
Patrick Ricard	1	1	4	1	5%	2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	3	4	0.0	1	2
Geno Stone	4	2	0.0	1	1
Patrick Queen	2	3	0.0	0	1
Nnamdi Madubuike	1	4	1.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	4	1	0.0	0	0
Ronald Darby	4	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Pierce	2	1	0.0	0	0
Arthur Maulet	3	0	0.0	0	1
Rock Ya-Sin	2	1	0.0	0	0
Travis Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3
Closing total: 47
MIA moneyline: +150
BAL moneyline: -180

Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 37.

Total closed 47; the game landed 75 — over by 28.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 50°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: MIA 7 days · BAL 6 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs John Harbaugh