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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q2 3:10, 1st and 10, on Zay Flowers — 18.7 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 56–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:10, Ravens +18.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:10 · 1st and 10
Zay Flowers
Ravens
(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +1.28 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.61 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Gus Edwards's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:59 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Devon Achane1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoa · two-point no good+619–3512 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.28 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 67 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Ravens’s 53 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Ravens 8.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.61 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's play-action rate, 42.3%, is past their previous high of 30.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · +2.6σ from their own normal
MIA's sack or hit rate, 7.7%, is past their previous low of 10.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 16 against 100.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.5 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-5.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 66 snaps
Ravens-2.2 ptsright on their number · −1.7 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 81%
Tendencies room →Dolphins55.3%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 47 early downs
Ravens42.2%leaned — ran early · −10.1 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Dolphins25.0%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Ravens42.3%off script — faked the run · +22.3 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+2.61× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 134%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins100.0%leaned — went for it · +44.8 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±30.5 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 16.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Dolphins38.5%leaned — sent pressure · +10.2 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Ravens9.1%leaned — sat back · −14.6 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 40%
Tendencies room →Dolphins7.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.2 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Ravens9.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
BAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 42.3%, 22.3 points above their season mean of 20.0% and 2.6 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
18/21, 321 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
29.0 expected points added · +23.6% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
22/38, 237 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-1.4 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Lamar Jackson banked 20.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 36.3 | +20.1 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 18/21, 321 yd, 5 TD · 6 car, 35 yd |
| Devon AchaneRB · Committee Back | 23.7 | +6.7 | 48% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 14 car, 107 yd · 4/5, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 22.2 | +11.4 | 35% | 58% | 23% | 1% | 3 car, 48 yd · 5/5, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Zay FlowersWR · Rotational Receiver | 19.6 | +14.3 | 56% | 54% | 14% | 24% | 3/3, 106 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 18.2 | +11.2 | 63% | 81% | 14% | 11% | 2/3, 42 yd, 2 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 14.9 | −5.9 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 22/38, 237 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 14 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.6 | −8.0 | 72% | 84% | 33% | 43% | 1 car, 0 yd · 6/12, 76 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 10.8 | −3.2 | 54% | 38% | 0% | — | 16 car, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +3.0 | 86% | 89% | 11% | 18% | 2/4, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.4 | −0.6 | 72% | 88% | 27% | 37% | 4/6, 54 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +5.7 | 49% | 31% | 5% | 8% | 1/1, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +3.0 | 74% | 80% | 8% | 14% | 3/3, 54 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 7.4 | +4.0 | 53% | 23% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Melvin GordonRB | 7.0 | +1.9 | 14% | 4% | 0% | — | 6 car, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Receiving Back | 6.4 | −3.0 | 49% | 64% | 11% | 9% | 3 car, 21 yd · 3/4, 13 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB | 4.7 | +3.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +1.4 | 32% | 54% | 5% | 13% | 1/1, 33 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.0 | 46% | 62% | 9% | 3% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.3 | 43% | 48% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 2.8 | −0.3 | 32% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.5 | 33% | 20% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Christopher BrooksRB | 1.2 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 18% | 4% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 19% | 27% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 14% | 9% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 22% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mike WhiteQB | -2.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 20 for 25 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
Q2 4:41 · Dolphins · 4th & 5 at BAL 45 · gained 25 · +3.96 EP · +16.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 89 yards from the BAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins6
Ravens0Dolphins7Ravens0Dolphins7Ravens6Dolphins7Ravens7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Dolphins10Ravens7Dolphins10Ravens13Dolphins10Ravens14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Dolphins13Ravens14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins13Ravens20Dolphins13Ravens21How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Dolphins13Ravens27Dolphins13Ravens28Dolphins13Ravens34Dolphins13Ravens35Dolphins19Ravens35Dolphins19Ravens41Dolphins19Ravens42Dolphins19Ravens48Dolphins19Ravens49Dolphins19Ravens55Dolphins19Ravens56Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/38 | 237 | 2 | 2 | 3 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Achane | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 12 | 76 | 0 | 33% | −1.2 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShon Elliott | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/21 | 321 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +29.0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 1/1 | 19 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_MIA_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 37.
Total closed 47; the game landed 75 — over by 28.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 14 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.5 |
| Christopher Brooks | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Mike White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −6.1 |
| +5.5 |
| Devon Achane | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 14% | +1.3 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 11% | −0.5 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +1.6 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Chase Claypool | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| River Cracraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Raekwon Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Shawn Hand | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +4.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 1 | −4.7 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 48 | 16.0 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Tyler Huntley | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 3 | 106 | 1 | 14% | +7.8 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 5 | 64 | 1 | 23% | +7.8 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 27% | +2.3 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 42 | 2 | 14% | +6.7 |
| Odell Beckham | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 5% | +3.2 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 5% | +4.2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.5 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5% | +2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Geno Stone | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Pierce | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arthur Maulet | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
