For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Dolphins164 of 171 plays carry both curves
(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.7 for RavensExpected points +6.03 for RavensThe model had Ravens 6 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:10BAL +19% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:41BAL +12% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 20 for 25 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
1st · 5:56BAL +10% win prob(5:56) 28-D.Achane left end pushed ob at BAL 12 for 45 yards (32-M.Williams).
2nd · 7:21BAL +10% win prob(7:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 3-O.Beckham ran ob at MIA 1 for 33 yards. Miami challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
2nd · 1:32BAL +9% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:01MIA +9% win prob(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 11-C.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Smith at BAL 32. 0-R.Smith pushed ob at MIA 38 for 30 yards (66-L.Cotton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gus Edwards's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:59 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:04Cedrick Wilson·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+77–0
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.28 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Dolphins: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.61Ravens: +0.61 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Dolphins: −0.09 expected points added per play
+1.28Ravens: +1.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Dolphins: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.04Ravens: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 67 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Ravens’s 53 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Ravens 8.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.61 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
BAL's play-action rate, 42.3%, is past their previous high of 30.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 16.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 16 against 100.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.2 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Ravens9.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteBAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 42.3%, 22.3 points above their season mean of 20.0% and 2.6 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 20 for 25 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
Q2 4:41 · Dolphins · 4th & 5 at BAL 45 · gained 25 · +3.96 EP · +16.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 89 yards from the BAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
866
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2173%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.4455%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.2214%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.9279%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.6338%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4360%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Dolphins6Ravens0
Dolphins7Ravens0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Ravens 8
Dolphins7Ravens6
Dolphins7Ravens7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Dolphins 20
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Dolphins10Ravens7
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Ravens 8
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 42
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 42
Dolphins10Ravens13
Dolphins10Ravens14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Dolphins 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Dolphins13Ravens14
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Ravens 20
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Dolphins13Ravens20
Dolphins13Ravens21
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Ravens 44
Dolphins13Ravens27
Dolphins13Ravens28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 35
The period ended12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Dolphins13Ravens34
Dolphins13Ravens35
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 7
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 42
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 48
Intercepted1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Ravens 45
The period ended12 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Ravens 23
4th quarter42 plays
Dolphins19Ravens35
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 1
Dolphins19Ravens41
Dolphins19Ravens42
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Dolphins 3
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 28
Dolphins19Ravens48
Dolphins19Ravens49
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 7
Fumble lost2 plays
Dolphins19Ravens55
Dolphins19Ravens56
Touchdown5 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
