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New England Patriots 21 at Buffalo Bills 27. Final.
Bills -15 no coverO 40 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 17
Buffalo Bills 27, Patriots 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:06, 1st and 10, on Ed Oliver — 18.5 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:06 · 1st and 10
Ed Oliver
Bills
(13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain.
Bills closed -15, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 27–21. Biggest swing: Q1 13:06, Bills +18.5% win probability on one snap.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ1 13:14(13:14) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.
9.7pts
Rasul DouglasBillsQ1 8:41(8:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 24. 31-R.Douglas to NE 14 for 10 yards (86-P.Brown).
10.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 5 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 55 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Patriots155 of 165 plays carry both curves
(13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain.
Swing +18.5 for BillsExpected points +5.25 for BillsThe model had Patriots 40 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:06NE +18% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain.
1st · 8:41NE +10% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 24. 31-R.Douglas to NE 14 for 10 yards (86-P.Brown).
1st · 13:14NE +10% win prob(13:14) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.
1st · 14:48NE +9% win prob(14:48) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 15 for -10 yards (91-D.Wise). FUMBLES (91-D.Wise) [91-D.Wise], recovered by BUF-66-C.McGovern at BUF 10.
1st · 14:01BUF +8% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to BUF 29 for 19 yards (27-M.Bryant).
1st · 12:10NE +8% win prob(12:10) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:40 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st15:00Jalen Reagor·98-yd return TD98-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–0
1st12:10Tyler Bass·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+37–3
1st6:40Josh Allen·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–10
1st2:19Tyler Bass·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+37–13
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Patriots: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.07Bills: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.42Patriots: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.13Bills: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.00Bills: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 52 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bills’s 66 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Bills 5.
NotePatriots outgained Bills 295-283 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bills25.8%
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteBUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 38.7%, 14.9 points above their season mean of 23.8% and 1.5 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
62Sidy SowT · Every snap100%53 snaps
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%53 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%53 snaps
4Bailey ZappeQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%53 snaps
81Demario DouglasWR · Full-time94%50 snaps
15Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time81%43 snaps
68Atonio MafiG · Heavy rotation75%40 snaps
11Tyquan ThorntonWR · Heavy rotation70%37 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Heavy rotation68%36 snaps
83Jalen ReagorWR · Heavy rotation68%36 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation68%36 snaps
1DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational28%15 snaps
67Jake AndrewsC · Rotational25%13 snaps
36Kevin HarrisRB · Situational21%11 snaps
87Matt SokolTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Sam RobertsDENathan RourkeQBJamycal HastyRBJabrill PeppersSSTrenton BrownTHunter HenryTEKayshon BoutteWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
James FerentzCMarco WilsonCBMac JonesQBAndrew StueberT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bass kicks+24% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 15:00 · Patriots · Kickoff at BUF 35 · gained nothing · +6.23 EP · +24.1% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
40%
Yards
575
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0648%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1672%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.5726%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.7667%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter52 plays
Patriots6Bills0
Patriots7Bills0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Patriots7Bills3
Field goal4 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 17
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Patriots 27
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 38
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Patriots7Bills9
Patriots7Bills10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays
Patriots7Bills13
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 6
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 26
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Patriots 46
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Patriots7Bills19
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 35
Patriots7Bills20
Patriots13Bills20
Patriots14Bills20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 17
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Patriots 44
The period ended10 plays, from the Patriots 11 to the Bills 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 45
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 10
3rd quarter31 plays
Patriots14Bills26
Patriots14Bills27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 1
Punt14 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 34
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 36
4th quarter40 plays
Punt2 plays
Patriots20Bills27
Patriots21Bills27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Bills 6
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 45
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 3 to the Patriots 11
The period ended17 plays, from the Patriots 49 to the Patriots 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
