2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · New Era Field

New England Patriots

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -15 no coverO 40 ✓Bills closed -15, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 27–21. Biggest swing: Q1 13:06, NE +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:06NE 7 — BUF 0NE ball · 1st & 10BUF 78%

(13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:06NE +18% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain.
Q1 · 8:41NE +10% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 24. 31-R.Douglas to NE 14 for 10 yards (86-P.Brown).
Q1 · 13:14NE +10% win prob(13:14) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.
Q1 · 14:48NE +9% win prob(14:48) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 15 for -10 yards (91-D.Wise). FUMBLES (91-D.Wise) [91-D.Wise], recovered by BUF-66-C.McGovern at BUF 10.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 15:00NE Touchdown
2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — BUF 0
Q1 · 12:10BUF Field goal
(12:10) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NE 7 — BUF 3
Q1 · 6:40BUF Touchdown
(6:40) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — BUF 10
Q1 · 2:19BUF Field goal
(2:19) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NE 7 — BUF 13
Q2 · 12:47BUF Touchdown
(12:47) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 83-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 40. 31-R.Douglas for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — BUF 20
Q2 · 9:51NE Touchdown
(9:51) 4-B.Zappe scrambles left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — BUF 20
Q3 · 10:45BUF Touchdown
(10:45) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — BUF 27
Q4 · 11:05NE Touchdown
(11:05) 15-E.Elliott right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 21 — BUF 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	52	66
Total yards	295 (edge)	283
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	-0.28	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	38%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.42	-0.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.00 (edge)
Third downs	4/10	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	5	1 (edge)

Patriots outgained Bills 295–283 but lost the turnover battle 5–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

16/26, 209 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-12.1 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/30, 169 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.9 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

16 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

11 att, 44 yds, 2 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Dalton KincaidTE

4/7 for 87 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

4/4 for 39 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	—	2	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown +7
2	BUF	BUF 25	5	4	1:42	Punt
3	NE	NE 18	1	0	0:06	Interception
4	BUF	NE 21	4	4	0:53	Field goal +3
5	NE	NE 22	5	5	1:47	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 27	6	11	1:39	Punt
7	NE	NE 16	1	0	0:07	Interception
8	BUF	NE 14	5	14	1:57	Touchdown +7
9	NE	NE 25	3	5	0:46	Fumble
10	BUF	NE 30	7	24	3:35	Field goal +3
11	NE	NE 25	5	-7	1:22	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 35	4	4	0:50	Punt
13	NE	NE 5	6	29	2:28	Defensive touchdown
14	NE	NE 25	8	75	2:52	Touchdown +7
15	BUF	BUF 18	10	42	4:01	Interception
16	NE	NE 11	9	60	3:54	Missed field goal
17	BUF	BUF 37	4	8	0:44	Punt
18	NE	NE 8	2	2	1:05	End of half
19	BUF	BUF 25	10	75	4:18	Touchdown +7
20	NE	NE 25	13	41	7:41	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 12	7	30	3:51	Punt
22	NE	NE 16	8	77	3:09	Touchdown +7
23	BUF	BUF 14	9	30	4:20	Punt
24	NE	NE 3	4	8	1:39	Punt
25	BUF	NE 49	11	37	5:02	End of game

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 77 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	16/26	209	0	3	3	-12.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	14	39	2.8	1	-2.4
Bailey Zappe	5	37	7.4	1	3.3
Kevin Harris	2	15	7.5	0	0.2
Demario Douglas	3	12	4.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kevin Harris	2	2	54	8%	5.0
Jalen Reagor	1	3	39	13%	-4.9
Mike Gesicki	4	6	35	25%	-3.3
Demario Douglas	3	5	31	21%	1.1
Tyquan Thornton	3	3	24	13%	0.2
DeVante Parker	1	2	15	8%	-3.9
Ezekiel Elliott	1	2	6	8%	-0.2
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	5	4%	-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jahlani Tavai	3	6	0.0	0
Kyle Dugger	5	3	0.0	1
Christian Barmore	3	3	0.0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	2	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	2	0.0	0
Keion White	1	2	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	3	0	0.0	1
Deatrich Wise	1	2	1.0	0
Pharaoh Brown	2	0	0.0	0
Myles Bryant	2	0	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	15/30	169	0	1	1	-4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	16	48	3.0	0	-2.6
Josh Allen	11	44	4.0	2	4.6
Ty Johnson	5	22	4.4	0	-1.0
Khalil Shakir	1	10	10.0	0	0.5
Stefon Diggs	1	5	5.0	0	0.9
Latavius Murray	1	0	0.0	0	-1.8
Kyle Allen	2	-2	-1.0	0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Kincaid	4	7	87	25%	1.4
Khalil Shakir	4	4	39	14%	4.6
Stefon Diggs	4	7	26	25%	-1.3
Gabe Davis	2	3	21	11%	0.9
Trent Sherfield	0	3	0	11%	-2.9
Latavius Murray	0	1	0	4%	-0.9
James Cook	1	3	-4	11%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terrel Bernard	6	2	2.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	6	2	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Christian Benford	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tyrel Dodson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	1	1	0.0	2	3
Ed Oliver	2	0	1.0	1	1
Micah Hyde	1	1	0.0	0	1
Tim Settle	1	0	0.0	0	0
A.J. Epenesa	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -15
Closing total: 40
NE moneyline: +750
BUF moneyline: -1200

Bills closed -15, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40; the game landed 48 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: NE 7 days · BUF 8 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.