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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q1 13:06, 1st and 10, on Ed Oliver — 18.5 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 27–21. Biggest swing: Q1 13:06, Bills +18.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:06 · 1st and 10
Ed Oliver
Bills
(13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 5 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 55 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:40 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 52 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bills’s 66 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Bills 5.
Patriots outgained Bills 295-283 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots1.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 52 snaps
Bills-2.5 ptsright on their number · −2.8 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 93%
Tendencies room →Patriots54.8%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 42 early downs
Bills47.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Patriots19.4%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bills11.8%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 20.1%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -65% to 161%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.2%.
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 48.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 58%
Tendencies room →Patriots38.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bills38.7%leaned — sent pressure · +14.9 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 36%
Tendencies room →Patriots11.8%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bills25.8%leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
BUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 38.7%, 14.9 points above their season mean of 23.8% and 1.5 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
16/26, 209 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-12.1 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
15/30, 169 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-4.9 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jalen Reagor banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 21.2 | −12.4 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 15/30, 169 yd, 1 INT · 11 car, 44 yd, 2 TD |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.7 | −0.6 | 55% | 79% | 25% | 39% | 4/7, 87 yd |
| Bailey ZappeQB · Starter QB | 12.1 | +3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/26, 209 yd, 3 INT · 5 car, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Committee Back | 11.5 | +2.4 | 81% | 74% | 8% | 0% | 14 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +6.7 | 68% | 84% | 13% | 26% | 1/3, 39 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +1.3 | 80% | 76% | 14% | 8% | 1 car, 10 yd · 4/4, 39 yd |
| Kevin HarrisRB | 8.9 | +5.2 | 21% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, 15 yd · 2/2, 54 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.5 | +0.9 | 68% | 68% | 25% | 18% | 4/6, 35 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −2.3 | 94% | 94% | 21% | 33% | 3 car, 12 yd · 3/5, 31 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.1 | −7.3 | 65% | 76% | 25% | 33% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/7, 26 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 5.4 | −12.8 | 55% | 47% | 11% | 3% | 16 car, 48 yd · 1/3, -4 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.9 | 70% | 71% | 13% | 12% | 3/3, 24 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 4.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.1 | 28% | 29% | 8% | 12% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2.2 | −0.3 | 19% | 18% | 0% | — | 5 car, 22 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 0.0 | −1.8 | 28% | 38% | 4% | 1% | 1 car, 0 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.5 | 28% | 21% | 11% | 9% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kyle AllenQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | -0.5 | −1.7 | 68% | 48% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 15:00 · Patriots · Kickoff at BUF 35 · gained nothing · +6.23 EP · +24.1% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots6
Bills0Patriots7Bills0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Patriots7Bills3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots7Bills9Patriots7Bills10How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots7Bills13How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots7Bills19Patriots7Bills20Patriots13Bills20Patriots14Bills20Patriots14Bills26Patriots14Bills27Patriots20Bills27Patriots21Bills27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 16/26 | 209 | 0 | 3 | 3 | −12.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 1 | −2.4 |
| Bailey Zappe | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Kevin Harris |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harris | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 | 8% | +5.0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Barmore |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/30 | 169 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_NE_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -15, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40; the game landed 48 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 15 |
| 7.5 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| Demario Douglas | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| −4.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 25% | −3.3 |
| Demario Douglas | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 21% | +1.1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | −3.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −4.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion White | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deatrich Wise | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Josh Allen | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 2 | +4.6 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 7 | 87 | 0 | 25% | +1.4 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 14% | +4.6 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 25% | −1.3 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −2.9 |
| Latavius Murray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| James Cook | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 11% | −3.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 6 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Ed Oliver | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Micah Hyde | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Settle | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
