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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q2 10:57, 3rd and 8, on Juwan Johnson — 9.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 23–13. Biggest swing: Q2 10:57, Saints +9.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:57 · 3rd and 8
Juwan Johnson
Saints
(10:57) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 36 for 32 yards (31-A.Winfield).
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.73 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Buccaneers at 2 of 8 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(10:57) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 36 for 32 yards (31-A.Winfield).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Juwan Johnson's 4-yard touchdown catch with 7:08 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Chris Godwin47-yd TD catch47-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · two-point no good+623–137 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Saints ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 67 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 50 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Buccaneers 2.
Buccaneers outgained Saints 350-313 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.0% in week 16 against 67.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.1% in week 16 against 42.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-4.5 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 67 snaps
Buccaneers-2.9 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 83%
Tendencies room →Saints42.0%inside their normal wobble · −11.3 vs their 53.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 50 early downs
Buccaneers67.5%leaned — passed early · +13.2 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 47%
Tendencies room →Saints11.4%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers8.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −14.4 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.4%.
Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 77%
Tendencies room →Saints8.3%leaned — sat back · −12.4 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Buccaneers25.7%inside their normal wobble · −13.5 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Saints8.3%inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Buccaneers2.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
TB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.3%, 14.4 points below their season mean of 22.8% and 1.6 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
22/33, 309 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
6.0 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected
Passing · NO
24/32, 197 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chris Godwin banked 9.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Alpha Receiver | 23.0 | +2.6 | 71% | 77% | 35% | 52% | 8/12, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris GodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.1 | +9.3 | 86% | 92% | 15% | 23% | 3/5, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.4 | +6.4 | 73% | 81% | 15% | 36% | 4/5, 84 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 16.3 | +4.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 309 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 15.6 | +2.7 | 91% | — | 0% | — | 24/32, 197 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 11.5 | +4.8 | 34% | — | 6% | 15% | 1/2, 11 yd · 2 car, 1 yd · 2/2, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 11.1 | −4.0 | 57% | 51% | 12% | 0% | 19 car, 58 yd · 4/4, 13 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB · Receiving Back | 10.6 | +1.5 | 27% | 31% | 18% | 0% | 3 car, 16 yd · 5/6, 40 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +3.3 | 82% | 89% | 12% | 25% | 3/4, 70 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.6 | −2.2 | 73% | 69% | 12% | 0% | 11 car, 42 yd · 4/4, 24 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB | 6.9 | −2.7 | 33% | 37% | 6% | 0% | 10 car, 45 yd · 2/2, 4 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −4.1 | 67% | 89% | 18% | 23% | 3/6, 26 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.1 | 54% | 66% | 9% | 9% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Featured Receiver | 3.0 | −5.7 | 95% | 97% | 18% | 17% | 2/6, 10 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 2.4 | +0.4 | 21% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 1 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.6 | 54% | 40% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Lynn BowdenWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 26% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| A.T. PerryWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.3 | 46% | 57% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 29% | 19% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 12-C.Olave to TB 31 for 11 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q1 11:40 · Saints · 3rd & 7 at TB 42 · gained 11 · +2.15 EP · +9.8% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 91 yards from the TB 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints6
Buccaneers0Saints7Buccaneers0Saints13Buccaneers0Saints14Buccaneers0Saints17Buccaneers0Saints20Buccaneers0Saints20Buccaneers6Saints20Buccaneers7Saints23Buccaneers7Saints23Buccaneers13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/32 | 197 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 8 | 12 | 90 | 1 | 35% | +7.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 6% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyrann Mathieu |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/33 | 309 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_NO_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 36 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| +3.5 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 18% | +0.6 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 12% | −0.2 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Paulson Adebo | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zack Baun | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Bresee | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | −10.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 5 | 84 | 1 | 15% | −0.4 |
| Chris Godwin | 3 | 5 | 81 | 1 | 15% | +10.0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 12% | +2.6 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 18% | +1.9 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 12% | −1.8 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 18% | −1.2 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.9 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antoine Winfield | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaevon Merriweather | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamel Dean | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Izien | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
