2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -2.5 upsetU 42.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 23–13. Biggest swing: Q2 10:57, TB +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:57NO 7 — TB 0NO ball · 3rd & 8NO 56%

(10:57) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 36 for 32 yards (31-A.Winfield).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:57TB +9% win prob(10:57) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 36 for 32 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q1 · 0:15TB +9% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to NO 39 for 33 yards (29-P.Adebo).
Q3 · 7:46NO +7% win prob(7:46) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to NO 27 for 16 yards (24-J.Abram). FUMBLES (24-J.Abram), RECOVERED by NO-56-D.Davis at NO 25. 56-D.Davis to NO 45 for 20 yards (67-L.Goedeke).
Q1 · 11:40TB +7% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 12-C.Olave to TB 31 for 11 yards (27-Z.McCollum).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:08NO Touchdown
(7:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — TB 0
Q2 · 2:00NO Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — TB 0
Q2 · 0:14NO Field goal
(:14) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 17 — TB 0
Q3 · 4:29NO Field goal
(4:29) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 20 — TB 0
Q4 · 7:56TB Touchdown
(7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 10-T.Palmer for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 20 — TB 7
Q4 · 3:51NO Field goal
(3:51) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 23 — TB 7
Q4 · 1:47TB Touchdown
(1:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 23 — TB 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	67	50
Total yards	313	350 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	36%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28 (edge)	0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.73
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	2/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Buccaneers outgained Saints 350–313 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

22/33, 309 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

6.0 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

24/32, 197 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Jamaal WilliamsRB

19 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

10 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Juwan JohnsonTE

8/12 for 90 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Trey PalmerWR

4/5 for 84 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 27	16	73	7:56	Touchdown +7
2	TB	TB 25	5	8	2:17	Punt
3	NO	NO 32	4	9	2:06	Punt
4	TB	TB 11	9	42	5:45	Interception
5	NO	NO 2	8	41	4:32	Punt
6	TB	TB 19	4	2	1:44	Punt
7	NO	NO 40	9	60	3:47	Touchdown +7
8	TB	TB 25	5	-7	0:19	Punt
9	NO	TB 46	7	19	1:25	Field goal +3
10	TB	TB 25	2	0	0:09	End of half
11	TB	TB 25	5	4	0:59	Punt
12	NO	NO 34	4	10	2:04	Punt
13	TB	TB 22	7	61	4:27	Fumble
14	NO	NO 45	7	31	3:05	Field goal +3
15	TB	TB 25	7	20	3:03	Punt
16	NO	NO 19	7	18	3:22	Punt
17	TB	TB 24	5	21	1:32	Interception
18	NO	NO 46	4	2	0:58	Punt
19	TB	TB 9	9	91	2:40	Touchdown +7
20	NO	NO 37	10	48	4:02	Field goal +3
21	TB	TB 25	2	54	0:12	Fumble
22	NO	NO 13	4	2	1:44	Punt
23	TB	TB 46	3	54	0:15	Touchdown +6
24	NO	TB 49	4	0	1:37	End of game

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	24/32	197	2	0	1	9.2
Taysom Hill	1/2	11	0	0	0	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	19	58	3.1	-4.4
Alvin Kamara	10	45	4.5	-0.2
Adam Prentice	1	7	7.0	1.2
Taysom Hill	2	1	0.5	-1.4
Derek Carr	3	-3	-1.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Juwan Johnson	8	12	90	1	35%	7.4
Taysom Hill	2	2	30	1	6%	3.5
Chris Olave	3	6	26	0	18%	0.6
Rashid Shaheed	2	3	14	0	9%	0.2
Jamaal Williams	4	4	13	0	12%	-0.2
Foster Moreau	1	1	13	0	3%	1.7
Adam Prentice	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.5
Lynn Bowden	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.1
A.T. Perry	1	2	5	0	6%	-0.9
Alvin Kamara	2	2	4	0	6%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Pete Werner	7	1	0.0	0	0
Johnathan Abram	5	0	0.0	1	1
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0.0	0	0
Khalen Saunders	2	2	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	2	2	0.0	0	0
Alontae Taylor	3	1	0.0	1	1
Paulson Adebo	2	1	0.0	0	1
Zack Baun	2	0	1.0	0	1
Bryan Bresee	1	1	1.0	0	0
Nathan Shepherd	1	0	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	22/33	309	2	2	2	6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	11	42	3.8	-10.4
Chase Edmonds	3	16	5.3	0.2
Baker Mayfield	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey Palmer	4	5	84	1	15%	-0.4
Chris Godwin	3	5	81	1	15%	10.0
Mike Evans	3	4	70	0	12%	2.6
Chase Edmonds	5	6	40	0	18%	1.9
Rachaad White	4	4	24	0	12%	-1.8
Cade Otton	2	6	10	0	18%	-1.2
David Moore	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.9
Deven Thompkins	1	2	0	0	6%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Lavonte David	5	6	0
Vita Vea	3	3	0
Devin White	4	2	1
Antoine Winfield	3	3	0
Zyon McCollum	4	2	0
William Gholston	2	2	0
Kaevon Merriweather	3	1	0
Anthony Nelson	2	1	1
Jamel Dean	1	2	1
Christian Izien	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -2.5
Closing total: 42.5
NO moneyline: +124
TB moneyline: -148

Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 36 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NO 10 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.