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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
23
13
New Orleans Saints 23–13. Biggest swing: Q2 10:57, TB +9% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(10:57) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 36 for 32 yards (31-A.Winfield).
How the points landed
(7:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — TB 0(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — TB 0(:14) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 17 — TB 0(4:29) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 20 — TB 0(7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 10-T.Palmer for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 20 — TB 7(3:51) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 23 — TB 7(1:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 23 — TB 13Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Saints | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 67 | 50 |
| Total yards | 313 | 350 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 7.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.07 (edge) | -0.17 |
| Success rate | 36% | 36% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 72% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.28 (edge) | 0.05 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.15 (edge) | -0.73 |
| Third downs | 8/17 (edge) | 2/8 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 4 |
Buccaneers outgained Saints 350–313 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
22/33, 309 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
6.0 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected
Passing · NO
24/32, 197 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 27 | 16 | 73 | 7:56 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 8 | 2:17 | Punt | |
| 3 | NO | NO 32 | 4 | 9 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 4 | TB | TB 11 | 9 | 42 | 5:45 | Interception | |
| 5 | NO | NO 2 | 8 | 41 | 4:32 | Punt | |
| 6 | TB | TB 19 | 4 | 2 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 7 | NO | NO 40 | 9 | 60 | 3:47 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | -7 | 0:19 | Punt | |
| 9 | NO | TB 46 | 7 | 19 | 1:25 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | TB | TB 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:09 | End of half | |
| 11 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 4 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 12 | NO | NO 34 | 4 | 10 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 13 | TB | TB 22 | 7 | 61 | 4:27 | Fumble | |
| 14 | NO | NO 45 | 7 | 31 | 3:05 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | TB | TB 25 | 7 | 20 | 3:03 | Punt | |
| 16 | NO | NO 19 | 7 | 18 | 3:22 | Punt | |
| 17 | TB | TB 24 | 5 | 21 | 1:32 | Interception | |
| 18 | NO | NO 46 | 4 | 2 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 19 | TB | TB 9 | 9 | 91 | 2:40 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 20 | NO | NO 37 | 10 | 48 | 4:02 | Field goal +3 | |
| 21 | TB | TB 25 | 2 | 54 | 0:12 | Fumble | |
| 22 | NO | NO 13 | 4 | 2 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 23 | TB | TB 46 | 3 | 54 | 0:15 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 24 | NO | TB 49 | 4 | 0 | 1:37 | End of game |
7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/32 | 197 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 | -4.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Derek Carr |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 8 | 12 | 90 | 1 | 35% | 7.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 6% | 3.5 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/33 | 309 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 36 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| -3 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| -1.4 |
| 0.6 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | 0.2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 12% | -0.2 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 1.7 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | -0.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | -0.2 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Paulson Adebo | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zack Baun | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Bresee | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -10.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 5 | 84 | 1 | 15% | -0.4 |
| Chris Godwin | 3 | 5 | 81 | 1 | 15% | 10.0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 12% | 2.6 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 18% | 1.9 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 12% | -1.8 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 18% | -1.2 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -4.9 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antoine Winfield | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaevon Merriweather | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamel Dean | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Izien | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
