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Cleveland Browns 37, Jets 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:12, 3rd and 15, on David Njoku — 11.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:12 · 3rd and 15
David Njoku
Browns
(14:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to NYJ 44 for 36 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
Browns closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Cleveland Browns 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:12, Browns +11.7% win probability on one snap.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
David NjokuBrownsQ1 5:28(5:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 85-D.Njoku pushed ob at NYJ 7 for 43 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
9.4pts
Ronnie HickmanBrownsQ1 2:12(2:12) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle intended for 17-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman at NYJ 30. 33-R.Hickman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Browns at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Jets at 8 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Jets173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(14:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to NYJ 44 for 36 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
Swing +11.7 for BrownsExpected points +4.27 for BrownsThe model had Jets 15 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:12CLE +12% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to NYJ 44 for 36 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
1st · 2:12NYJ +11% win prob(2:12) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle intended for 17-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman at NYJ 30. 33-R.Hickman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:28CLE +9% win prob(5:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 85-D.Njoku pushed ob at NYJ 7 for 43 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
1st · 4:43NYJ +9% win prob36-R.Patterson kicks 63 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 2. 25-I.Abanikanda to NYJ 14 for 12 yards (40-M.Adams). FUMBLES (40-M.Adams), touched at NYJ 15, RECOVERED by CLE-28-M.Ford at NYJ 12.
1st · 3:28NYJ +7% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 19-C.Tillman.
1st · 8:14CLE +6% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle to 20-Bre.Hall for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 4:46 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:15Jerome Ford·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+70–7
2nd1:41Jerome Ford·50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+714–34
2nd0:03Greg Zuerlein·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+317–34
4th8:54Greg Zuerlein·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+320–34
4th2:58Riley Patterson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap C.Hughlett+320–37
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBrowns
Jets1–8Browns
360Total yards428
5.3Yards per play7.4
40%Success rate45%
38%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays12
16First downs19
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers4
The read
Browns ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Jets: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Jets: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.06Browns: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Jets: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.18Browns: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 68 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Browns’s 58 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Browns 6.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Browns10.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 4.0%, 13.3 points below their season mean of 17.3% and 1.4 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
66Joe TippmannC · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%73 snaps
67Carter WarrenT · Every snap100%73 snaps
14Trevor SiemianQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
17Garrett WilsonWR · Every snap99%72 snaps
16Jason BrownleeWR · Full-time97%71 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Heavy rotation79%58 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Heavy rotation71%52 snaps
82Xavier GipsonWR · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
65Xavier Newman-JohnsonG · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 85-D.Njoku pushed ob at NYJ 7 for 43 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
Q1 5:28 · Browns · 3rd & 12 at 50 · gained 43 · +4.39 EP · +16.1% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 79 yards from the CLE 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
40%
Yards
788
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0177%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1166%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13-0.3515%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3470%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-1.1244%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3040%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Jets0Browns6
Jets0Browns7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Jets 7
How the play was built
Five in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jets6Browns7
Jets7Browns7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Browns 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jets7Browns13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Jets 7
Fumble lost1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 4
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Jets7Browns19
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 6 to the Jets 19
Jets7Browns20
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 43
2nd quarter49 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 40
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 40
Jets7Browns26
Jets7Browns27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Jets 8
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Jets13Browns27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 18 to midfield
Jets14Browns27
Jets14Browns33
Jets14Browns34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 25 to midfield
Jets17Browns34
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Browns 28
3rd quarter38 plays
No good14 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Browns 6
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Browns 23
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Browns 44
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 20
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Browns 34
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 32
Jets20Browns34
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 20
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 31
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 27
Jets20Browns37
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 14
The period ended15 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Browns 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
