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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:01 AM ET · 1 to play · 13 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q4 7:07, 1st and 10, on Geno Smith — 15.2 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 30–23. Biggest swing: Q4 7:07, Steelers +15.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:07 · 1st and 10
Geno Smith
Steelers
(7:07) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 16 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at SEA 16.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 9 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 8 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(7:07) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 16 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at SEA 16.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Najee Harris's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 7:05 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categorySeahawks
Steelers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 70 snaps at a 37% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 49 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 7, Seahawks 3.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's early-down pass rate, 27.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 12.2 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
PIT's pass rate over expected, −15.7 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
PIT's sack or hit rate, 24.3%, is past their previous high of 22.7% in week 9 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
SEA's early-down pass rate, 70.0%, is past their previous high of 65.9% in week 8 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 60.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.3 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
SEA's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.5% in week 16 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-15.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.6 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 70 snaps
Seahawks4.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 84%
Tendencies room →Steelers27.8%leaned — ran early · −20.3 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 54 early downs
Seahawks70.0%leaned — passed early · +12.4 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Steelers23.1%leaned — faked the run · +7.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Seahawks21.6%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Steelers60.0%leaned — went for it · +31.8 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.7 vs their 25.7%, and they swing ±32.8 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers13.5%leaned — sat back · −15.1 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks11.5%leaned — sat back · −15.1 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Steelers24.3%leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks7.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
PIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.3%, 8.4 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.7 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
23/33, 290 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.2 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
18/24, 274 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
11.1 expected points added · +22.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Najee Harris banked 9.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 24.2 | +9.0 | 53% | 19% | 0% | — | 27 car, 122 yd, 2 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.1 | +7.0 | 78% | 100% | 43% | 66% | 7/9, 131 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 19.8 | +4.0 | 54% | 88% | 19% | 5% | 13 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 23 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 290 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 33 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.5 | +7.5 | 43% | 30% | 9% | 0% | 10 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 22 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 15.6 | +1.4 | 96% | 95% | 24% | 34% | 5/8, 106 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.6 | +5.8 | 58% | 81% | 19% | 22% | 4/4, 76 yd |
| Mason RudolphQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | +0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/24, 274 yd · 6 car, 5 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | +0.7 | 45% | 46% | 18% | 22% | 5/6, 59 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Receiving Back | 9.1 | +2.0 | 57% | 70% | 15% | 6% | 2 car, 2 yd · 5/5, 39 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +4.8 | 67% | 76% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | +2.0 | 64% | 69% | 19% | 7% | 3/4, 44 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +2.1 | 57% | 49% | 9% | 16% | 2/3, 38 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −6.8 | 82% | 86% | 15% | 23% | 1/5, 10 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | 31% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Rod WilliamsTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 27% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to SEA 4 for 42 yards (20-J.Love).
Q3 7:55 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at SEA 46 · gained 42 · +3.11 EP · +12.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers6
Seahawks0Steelers7Seahawks0Steelers7Seahawks6Steelers7Seahawks7Steelers10Seahawks7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Steelers10Seahawks13Steelers10Seahawks14Steelers16Seahawks14Steelers17Seahawks14Steelers17Seahawks17How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers23Seahawks17Steelers24Seahawks17Steelers24Seahawks20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Steelers27Seahawks20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Steelers30Seahawks20Steelers30Seahawks23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 18/24 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +11.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 27 | 122 | 4.5 | 2 | +4.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Mason Rudolph |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 7 | 9 | 131 | 0 | 43% | +4.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Rowe | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Killebrew |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/33 | 290 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_PIT_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 53 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 5 |
| 0.8 |
| 0 |
| −2.5 |
| 19% |
| +7.2 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 19% | +2.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 19% | +0.5 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Riley | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Peterson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Robinson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiahh Loudermilk | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 106 | 0 | 24% | +5.0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 18% | +2.4 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 15% | +1.6 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 9% | +2.9 |
| Kenneth Walker | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 6% | +3.1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 15% | −2.7 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Bush | 4 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 3 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derick Hall | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Boye Mafe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
