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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · Lumen Field

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

30

Seattle Seahawks

23

SEA -4.5 upsetO 40.5 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 30–23. Biggest swing: Q4 7:07, PIT +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 7:07PIT 27 — SEA 20SEA ball · 1st & 10PIT 78%

(7:07) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 16 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at SEA 16.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 7:07PIT +15% win prob(7:07) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 16 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at SEA 16.
  2. Q2 · 5:36SEA +15% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Benton].
  3. Q2 · 1:41SEA +13% win prob(1:41) 22-N.Harris right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 10:30SEA +10% win prob(10:30) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:53PIT Touchdown

    (1:53) 30-J.Warren left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — SEA 0
  2. Q2 · 13:54SEA Touchdown

    (13:54) 9-K.Walker left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — SEA 7
  3. Q2 · 10:30PIT Field goal

    (10:30) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — SEA 7
  4. Q2 · 5:36SEA Touchdown

    (5:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Benton]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — SEA 14
  5. Q2 · 1:41PIT Touchdown

    (1:41) 22-N.Harris right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 17 — SEA 14
  6. Q3 · 10:51SEA Field goal

    (10:51) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: PIT 17 — SEA 17
  7. Q3 · 7:05PIT Touchdown

    (7:05) 22-N.Harris left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 24 — SEA 17
  8. Q4 · 13:34SEA Field goal

    (13:34) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: PIT 24 — SEA 20
  9. Q4 · 7:10PIT Field goal

    (7:10) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 27 — SEA 20
  10. Q4 · 4:33PIT Field goal

    (4:33) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 30 — SEA 20
  11. Q4 · 2:05SEA Field goal

    (2:05) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: PIT 30 — SEA 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersSeahawks
Offensive plays7049
Total yards469 (edge)369
Yards per play6.77.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.28 (edge)0.12
Success rate51% (edge)47%
Dropback rate37%76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.42 (edge)0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.20 (edge)-0.16
Third downs6/13 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)17
Sacks taken11
Turnovers11

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

23/33, 290 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mason RudolphQB

18/24, 274 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

11.1 expected points added · +22.0% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

27 att, 122 yds, 2 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

13 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

7/9 for 131 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

5/8 for 106 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 259343:35Turnover on downs
2SEASEA 41491:41Punt
3PITPIT 2015857:57Touchdown +7
4SEASEA 259752:57Touchdown +7
5PITPIT 257543:23Field goal +3
6SEASEA 2510854:57Touchdown +7
7PITPIT 2511753:54Touchdown +7
8SEASEA 25591:00Punt
9PITPIT 20290:36End of half
10SEASEA 3510514:13Field goal +3
11PITPIT 298763:50Touchdown +7
12SEASEA 365132:22Punt
13PITPIT 216193:25Punt
14SEASEA 147622:40Field goal +3
15PITPIT 2714656:23Field goal +3
16SEASEA 252-90:07Fumble
17PITSEA 166132:29Field goal +3
18SEASEA 2612742:30Field goal +3
19PITSEA 446392:01End of game

11 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mason Rudolph18/2427400111.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris271224.524.6
Jaylen Warren13755.812.0
Mason Rudolph650.80-2.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens79131043%4.9
Diontae Johnson4476019%7.2
Pat Freiermuth3444019%2.8
Jaylen Warren4423019%0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Rowe910.000
Myles Jack710.000
Miles Killebrew310.000
Larry Ogunjobi120.000
Elijah Riley110.000
T.J. Watt110.000
Chandon Sullivan110.001
Patrick Peterson200.000
Mark Robinson110.000
Isaiahh Loudermilk100.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith23/332901017.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker10535.31-0.7
Geno Smith33311.000.8
Zach Charbonnet221.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf58106024%5.0
Noah Fant5659018%2.4
Zach Charbonnet5539015%1.6
Colby Parkinson233809%2.9
Kenneth Walker332209%0.8
Jaxon Smith-Njigba121216%3.1
Tyler Lockett1510015%-2.7
Jake Bobo11403%-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin Bush4130.000
Bobby Wagner3100.000
Julian Love640.000
Leonard Williams331.000
Derick Hall240.000
Dre'Mont Jones140.000
Michael Jackson310.000
Quandre Diggs030.001
Boye Mafe120.001
Devon Witherspoon300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Closing total
40.5
PIT moneyline
+185
SEA moneyline
-225

Seahawks closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 53 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
47°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
PIT 8 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Pete Carroll