For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Steelers155 of 166 plays carry both curves
(7:07) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 16 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at SEA 16.
Swing −15.2 for SeahawksExpected points −5.82 for SeahawksThe model had Steelers 3 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:07PIT +15% win prob(7:07) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 16 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at SEA 16.
2nd · 5:36SEA +15% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Benton].
2nd · 1:41SEA +13% win prob(1:41) 22-N.Harris right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:30SEA +10% win prob(10:30) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
3rd · 7:55SEA +10% win prob(7:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to SEA 4 for 42 yards (20-J.Love).
4th · 11:35SEA +10% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens ran ob at SEA 22 for 34 yards (30-M.Jackson).
4th · 14:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Najee Harris's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 7:05 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
3rd10:51Jason Myers·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+317–17
3rd7:05Najee Harris·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+724–17
4th13:34Jason Myers·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+324–20
4th7:10Chris Boswell·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+327–20
4th4:33Chris Boswell·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+330–20
4th2:05Jason Myers·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+330–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categorySeahawks
Steelers6–1Seahawks
469Total yards369
6.7Yards per play7.5
51%Success rate47%
46%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays8
25First downs17
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Steelers: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.12Seahawks: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.42Steelers: +0.42 expected points added per play
+0.22Seahawks: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Steelers: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.16Seahawks: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 70 snaps at a 37% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 49 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 7, Seahawks 3.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 27.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 12.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 37.0% in week 10.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, −15.7 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 16.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 24.3%, is past their previous high of 22.7% in week 9 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 70.0%, is past their previous high of 65.9% in week 8 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 60.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.3 points.
SEA's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.5% in week 16 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks7.7%
inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.3%, 8.4 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.7 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
65Dan MooreT · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%72 snaps
2Mason RudolphQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
78James DanielsG · Every snap100%72 snaps
61Mason ColeC · Every snap100%72 snaps
14George PickensWR · Heavy rotation78%56 snaps
11Allen RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation67%48 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation64%46 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation58%42 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Heavy rotation54%39 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Rotational31%22 snaps
19Calvin AustinWR · Situational19%14 snaps
13Miles BoykinWR · Situational8%6 snaps
—Rodney WilliamsTE · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Darius RushCBDeMarvin LealDEMinkah FitzpatrickFSElandon RobertsILBKenny PickettQBTrenton ThompsonSSDylan CookT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Rudolph pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to SEA 4 for 42 yards (20-J.Love).
Q3 7:55 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at SEA 46 · gained 42 · +3.11 EP · +12.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
48%
Yards
837
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0144%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0674%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.5640%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.720%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.5175%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.5643%
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Seahawks 41
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to midfield
Steelers6Seahawks0
Steelers7Seahawks0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Seahawks 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 39
2nd quarter46 plays
Steelers7Seahawks6
Steelers7Seahawks7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Steelers 13
Steelers10Seahawks7
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Seahawks 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Steelers10Seahawks13
Steelers10Seahawks14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Steelers 7
Steelers16Seahawks14
Steelers17Seahawks14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Seahawks 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 25
3rd quarter34 plays
Steelers17Seahawks17
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Steelers 24
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Steelers23Seahawks17
Steelers24Seahawks17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Seahawks 4
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Seahawks 42
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Steelers 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 46
4th quarter49 plays
Steelers24Seahawks20
Field goal4 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Steelers27Seahawks20
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Seahawks 8
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays
Steelers30Seahawks20
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 2
Steelers30Seahawks23
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Steelers 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Seahawks 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
