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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:38 PM ET · 1 to play · 13 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q2 4:37, 3rd and 3, on Terry McLaurin — 7.8 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:37, Commanders +7.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:37 · 3rd and 3
Terry McLaurin
Commanders
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.18 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 64% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 21.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 45 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Moody's 22-yard field goal with 0:22 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Jake Moody22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+313–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryCommanders
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 66 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Commanders’s 43 at 67%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Commanders 2.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's play-action rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.6% in week 16 against 41.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.7% in week 16 against 20.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
SF's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.0% in week 16 against 17.2% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-2.8 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 66 snaps
Commanders5.8 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 43 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 91%
Tendencies room →49ers41.1%inside their normal wobble · −9.1 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 56 early downs
Commanders60.6%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 64.6%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 43%
Tendencies room →49ers16.7%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Commanders3.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.2 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.78× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 107%
Fourth Down room →49ers33.3%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Commanders—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 57%
Tendencies room →49ers17.2%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Commanders16.7%leaned — sat back · −11.8 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 35%
Tendencies room →49ers20.7%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Commanders6.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
WAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 13.2 points below their season mean of 16.7% and 1.8 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
22/28, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.5 expected points added · +13.2% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
17/28, 169 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-9.6 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brandon Aiyuk banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.4 | +7.5 | 87% | 87% | 30% | 55% | 7/8, 114 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 18.2 | +2.8 | 84% | 90% | 22% | 6% | 3 car, 35 yd · 5/6, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 17.6 | −2.6 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 22/28, 230 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | +3.7 | 89% | 97% | 27% | 66% | 4/7, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Committee Back | 14.0 | −3.6 | 37% | 27% | 0% | — | 17 car, 80 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 13.1 | −11.6 | 54% | 67% | 19% | 5% | 14 car, 64 yd · 4/5, 27 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.6 | +1.1 | 54% | 48% | 15% | 0% | 9 car, 44 yd · 4/4, 32 yd |
| Sam HowellQB · Starter QB | 6.7 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 169 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +1.2 | 50% | 62% | 15% | 25% | 3/4, 33 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −4.1 | 91% | 93% | 15% | 21% | 3/4, 29 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 5.6 | −2.9 | 43% | 52% | 15% | 0% | 4 car, 19 yd · 2/4, 17 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 5.3 | +0.1 | 56% | 47% | 11% | 7% | 3/3, 23 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −1.0 | 61% | 72% | 15% | 16% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 54% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.3 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 14% | 27% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 22% | 17% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 85% | 83% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Sam DarnoldQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:57) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward [97-N.Bosa] at SF 2. 7-C.Ward to SF 5 for 3 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Q4 14:57 · Commanders · 3rd & 8 at SF 11 · gained nothing · -3.64 EP · −12.9% win probability
139 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 149 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 95 yards from the SF 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers3
Commanders049ers9Commanders049ers10Commanders049ers10Commanders349ers10Commanders949ers10Commanders1049ers13Commanders1049ers19Commanders1049ers20Commanders10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
49ers26Commanders1049ers27Commanders10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 22/28 | 230 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +12.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Deebo Samuel |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 7 | 8 | 114 | 1 | 30% | +9.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Ryan |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 17/28 | 169 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_SF_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 49; the game landed 37 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 35 |
| 11.7 |
| 0 |
| +2.8 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.2 |
| +1.5 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 15% | +0.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 19% | +0.3 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 11% | +2.3 |
| Ronnie Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Charvarius Ward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Sam Howell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 27% | +1.0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| Brian Robinson | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 15% | +0.0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 15% | −0.7 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −2.8 |
| Byron Pringle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −4.4 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaleke Hudson | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Mayo | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Smith-Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Burgess | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Martin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Holmes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
