2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · FedExField

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Washington Commanders

SF -14 ✓U 49 ✓49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 17.

San Francisco 49ers 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:37, WAS +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:37SF 10 — WAS 9WAS ball · 3rd & 3SF 86%

(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:37WAS +8% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:06WAS +5% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 4-C.Samuel to WAS 32 for 7 yards (20-A.Thomas) [94-C.Ferrell].
Q2 · 7:27WAS +5% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to SF 18 for 42 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
Q4 · 14:57SF +5% win prob(14:57) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward [97-N.Bosa] at SF 2. 7-C.Ward to SF 5 for 3 yards (17-T.McLaurin).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:10SF Field goal
(8:10) 4-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 3 — WAS 0
Q1 · 1:35SF Touchdown
(1:35) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — WAS 0
Q2 · 12:10WAS Field goal
(12:10) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: SF 10 — WAS 3
Q2 · 4:37WAS Touchdown
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — WAS 10
Q2 · 0:22SF Field goal
(:22) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 13 — WAS 10
Q3 · 5:46SF Touchdown
(5:46) 25-E.Mitchell right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 20 — WAS 10
Q4 · 9:30SF Touchdown
(9:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 27 — WAS 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Commanders
Offensive plays	66	43
Total yards	410 (edge)	225
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	64% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	45%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.40 (edge)	-0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	4/9 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

22/28, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.5 expected points added · +13.2% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

17/28, 169 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-9.6 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

17 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

14 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

7/8 for 114 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

4/7 for 61 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	13	50	6:54	Field goal +3
2	WAS	WAS 25	5	7	0:57	Punt
3	SF	SF 37	10	63	5:38	Touchdown +7
4	WAS	WAS 25	10	46	4:26	Field goal +3
5	SF	SF 31	6	17	2:14	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 16	10	79	5:18	Touchdown +7
7	SF	SF 25	11	71	4:14	Field goal +3
8	WAS	WAS 25	2	-1	0:19	End of half
9	WAS	WAS 25	5	3	2:01	Punt
10	SF	SF 17	13	68	7:15	Touchdown +7
11	WAS	WAS 25	11	74	5:51	Interception
12	SF	SF 5	11	105	5:33	Touchdown +7
13	WAS	WAS 25	3	6	0:30	Interception
14	SF	WAS 41	8	39	4:54	Turnover on downs
15	WAS	WAS 2	4	3	1:40	Punt
16	SF	SF 47	4	-3	0:37	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 18	4	8	0:45	Turnover on downs
18	SF	WAS 26	2	0	0:54	End of game

7 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 105 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	22/28	230	2	0	0	12.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	17	80	4.7	1	-0.7
Christian McCaffrey	14	64	4.6	0	1.7
Deebo Samuel	3	35	11.7	0	2.8
Brock Purdy	1	4	4.0	0	1.2
Jordan Mason	2	3	1.5	0	-0.6
Sam Darnold	2	-2	-1.0	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	7	8	114	1	30%	9.6
Deebo Samuel	5	6	37	1	22%	1.5
George Kittle	3	4	29	0	15%	0.9
Christian McCaffrey	4	5	27	0	19%	0.3
Kyle Juszczyk	3	3	23	0	11%	2.3
Ronnie Bell	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Dre Greenlaw	6	4	0.0	0	0
Fred Warner	1	4	0.0	0	0
Logan Ryan	2	2	0.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	2	1	0.0	1	2
Charvarius Ward	2	1	0.0	1	1
Nick Bosa	1	1	0.0	0	1
Clelin Ferrell	1	1	1.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	1	0	0.0	0	0
Ambry Thomas	1	0	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	17/28	169	1	2	1	-9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Robinson	9	44	4.9	2.3
Antonio Gibson	4	19	4.8	0.2
Sam Howell	1	-1	-1.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	4	7	61	1	27%	1.0
Curtis Samuel	3	4	33	0	15%	1.1
Brian Robinson	4	4	32	0	15%	1.1
Logan Thomas	3	4	20	0	15%	0.0
Antonio Gibson	2	4	17	0	15%	-0.7
John Bates	1	1	6	0	4%	-2.8
Byron Pringle	0	1	0	0	4%	-4.4
Jahan Dotson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Khaleke Hudson	3	7	0
Kamren Curl	6	3	0
David Mayo	6	2	0
Cody Barton	5	3	0
Jonathan Allen	2	3	0
James Smith-Williams	2	2	0
Terrell Burgess	1	3	0
Quan Martin	2	2	0
Casey Toohill	1	2	0
Christian Holmes	1	2	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -14
Closing total: 49
SF moneyline: -1050
WAS moneyline: +675

49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 49; the game landed 37 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: SF 6 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Ron Rivera