For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
San Francisco 49ers 27 at Washington Commanders 10. Final.
49ers -14 ✓U 49 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 17
San Francisco 49ers 27, Commanders 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 4:37, 3rd and 3, on Terry McLaurin — 7.8 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:37 · 3rd and 3
Terry McLaurin
Commanders
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -14 and covered, winning by 17.
San Francisco 49ers 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:37, Commanders +7.8% win probability on one snap.
7.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Curtis SamuelCommandersQ1 8:06(8:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 4-C.Samuel to WAS 32 for 7 yards (20-A.Thomas) [94-C.Ferrell].
5.3pts
Terry McLaurinCommandersQ2 7:27(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to SF 18 for 42 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
4.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.18 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 64% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 45 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on 49ers141 of 149 plays carry both curves
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.8 for CommandersExpected points +2.29 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 33 points higher than the market did.play 58
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:37WAS +8% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:06WAS +5% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 4-C.Samuel to WAS 32 for 7 yards (20-A.Thomas) [94-C.Ferrell].
2nd · 7:27WAS +5% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to SF 18 for 42 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
4th · 14:57SF +5% win prob(14:57) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward [97-N.Bosa] at SF 2. 7-C.Ward to SF 5 for 3 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
3rd · 13:41SF +4% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 28 for -6 yards (94-C.Ferrell).
1st · 5:03SF +4% win prob(5:03) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to WAS 45 for -5 yards (51-D.Mayo).
2nd · 0:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Moody's 22-yard field goal with 0:22 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:10Jake Moody·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+33–0
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2349ers: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.18Commanders: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.4049ers: +0.40 expected points added per play
−0.33Commanders: −0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.0949ers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.13Commanders: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 66 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Commanders’s 43 at 67%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Commanders 2.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's play-action rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 6.6% in week 5.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 16.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.6% in week 16 against 41.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.7% in week 16 against 20.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
SF's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.0% in week 16 against 17.2% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Commanders6.7%
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteWAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 13.2 points below their season mean of 16.7% and 1.8 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
55Jon FelicianoC · Every snap100%70 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Spencer BurfordG · Every snap100%70 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Full-time93%65 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Full-time93%65 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time93%65 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time91%64 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time87%61 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time84%59 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Howell pass−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:57) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward [97-N.Bosa] at SF 2. 7-C.Ward to SF 5 for 3 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Q4 14:57 · Commanders · 3rd & 8 at SF 11 · gained nothing · -3.64 EP · −12.9% win probability
139 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 149 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 95 yards from the SF 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
149 of 149 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
149
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
52%
Yards
633
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1772%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29+0.4641%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.0548%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4356%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2867%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
49ers3Commanders0
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Commanders 15
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
49ers9Commanders0
49ers10Commanders0
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Commanders 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the 49ers 41
2nd quarter38 plays
49ers10Commanders3
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the 49ers 28
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 48
49ers10Commanders9
49ers10Commanders10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the 49ers 3
49ers13Commanders10
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Commanders 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
49ers19Commanders10
49ers20Commanders10
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Commanders 2
The period ended13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the 49ers 13
4th quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
49ers26Commanders10
49ers27Commanders10
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 5 to the Commanders 17
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 31
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Commanders 1
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 2 to the Commanders 5
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 47 to midfield
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 20
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
