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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 17
It turned at Q2 10:10, 1st and 10, on Will Levis — 7.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:10 · 1st and 10
Will Levis
Texans
(10:10) (Shotgun) 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 16 for -9 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], touched at TEN 15, RECOVERED by HOU-98-S.Rankins at TEN 13. 98-S.Rankins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-8-W.Levis was injured during the play. He is Out.
Houston Texans 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:10, Texans +7.6% win probability on one snap.
7.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.38 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(10:10) (Shotgun) 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 16 for -9 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], touched at TEN 15, RECOVERED by HOU-98-S.Rankins at TEN 13. 98-S.Rankins
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 28-yard field goal with 7:20 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ka'imi Fairbairn28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+30–37 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 53 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Texans’s 61 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Titans 1, Texans 4.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate, 34.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
HOU's blitz rate sent, 6.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 5 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 17.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.1 points.
TEN's play-action rate, 12.5%, is past their previous low of 16.3% in week 10 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 5.7% in week 16 against 29.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-10.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.1 vs their -5.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 53 snaps
Texans5.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.2 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 83%
Tendencies room →Titans51.4%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 51.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 37 early downs
Texans54.0%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 52%
Tendencies room →Titans12.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.9 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Texans29.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Titans80.0%leaned — went for it · +42.4 vs their 37.6%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 43%
Tendencies room →Titans17.6%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Texans6.3%leaned — sat back · −13.0 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Titans5.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Texans34.4%off script — got home · +17.0 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
HOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.4%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 17.3% and 2.0 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
24/32, 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.1 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
16/20, 168 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.4 expected points added · +13.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Brevin Jordan banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.7 | +0.2 | 62% | 68% | 26% | 31% | 1 car, 7 yd · 7/8, 80 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.2 | +3.4 | 85% | 97% | 28% | 25% | 7/7, 72 yd |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −6.4 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 24/32, 213 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 11.6 | −0.3 | 62% | 59% | 10% | 0% | 16 car, 80 yd · 3/3, 6 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +6.0 | 51% | 47% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +2.7 | 64% | 74% | 13% | 18% | 4/4, 58 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Committee Back | 6.9 | −5.3 | 62% | 78% | 24% | 0% | 6 car, 0 yd · 4/6, 29 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 6.7 | −2.5 | 76% | — | 0% | — | 16/20, 168 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 6.4 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 4.2 | −5.0 | 42% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 12 car, 42 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.1 | 76% | 81% | 12% | 40% | 1/3, 32 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −2.8 | 79% | 76% | 13% | 14% | 2/4, 19 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB | 3.1 | −2.5 | 20% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 8 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −2.1 | 82% | 91% | 12% | 26% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −4.3 | 43% | 38% | 10% | 15% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −6.9 | 61% | 53% | 10% | 10% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/3, 8 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kevin RaderTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.1 | 22% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.4 | 30% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Jonathan WardRB | 1.1 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | −0.7 | 18% | 26% | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
| Mason KinseyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Will LevisQB | -1.4 | −3.7 | 24% | — | 0% | — | 2/6, 16 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:21) (No Huddle) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 43 for 12 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q1 4:21 · Titans · 4th & 1 at TEN 45 · gained 12 · +3.03 EP · +11.7% win probability
140 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 148 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 140 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 94 yards from the HOU 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans0
Texans3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Titans0Texans9Titans0Texans10Titans0Texans16Titans0Texans17Titans0Texans20Titans3Texans20Titans3Texans23Titans3Texans26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 16/20 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −2.4 |
| Will Levis | 2/6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Jonathan Ward | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Tyjae Spears |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 28% | +7.7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 16% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K'Von Wallace | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otis Reese | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 24/32 | 213 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_17_TEN_HOU
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 44; the game landed 29 — under by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −6.6 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 12% | −1.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 24% | −2.4 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 12% | +1.8 |
| Kevin Rader | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keondre Coburn | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Garror | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garret Wallow | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
| 80 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 | 26% | +4.7 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 13% | +3.8 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13% | −0.0 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | −0.9 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −1.3 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Barnett | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Houston-Carson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Denzel Perryman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Hansen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
