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2023 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 31, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Tennessee Titans

3

Houston TexansWinner

26

HOU -5 ✓U 44 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:10, TEN +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑TEN ↓
Q2 · 10:10TEN 0 — HOU 16TEN ball · 1st & 10HOU 88%

(10:10) (Shotgun) 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 16 for -9 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], touched at TEN 15, RECOVERED by HOU-98-S.Rankins at TEN 13. 98-S.Rankins

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 10:10TEN +8% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 16 for -9 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], touched at TEN 15, RECOVERED by HOU-98-S.Rankins at TEN 13. 98-S.Rankins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-8-W.Levis was injured during the play. He is Out.
  2. Q1 · 4:21HOU +7% win prob(4:21) (No Huddle) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 43 for 12 yards (5-J.Pitre).
  3. Q1 · 1:19HOU +6% win prob(1:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 34 for 4 yards (17-K.Boyd). PENALTY on TEN-42-C.Murphy, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 11 - No Play.
  4. Q1 · 14:17TEN +5% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Moore (25-D.King) [51-W.Anderson].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:20HOU Field goal

    (7:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 3
  2. Q2 · 10:14HOU Touchdown

    (10:14) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 9-B.Jordan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 10
  3. Q2 · 10:10HOU Touchdown

    (10:10) (Shotgun) 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 16 for -9 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], touched at TEN 15, RECOVERED by HOU-98-S.Rankins at TEN 13. 98-S.Rankins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-8-W.Levis was injured during the play. He is Out. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 17
  4. Q2 · 4:21HOU Field goal

    (4:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 20
  5. Q2 · 0:01TEN Field goal

    (:01) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: TEN 3 — HOU 20
  6. Q3 · 9:39HOU Field goal

    (9:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: TEN 3 — HOU 23
  7. Q4 · 5:37HOU Field goal

    (5:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: TEN 3 — HOU 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTitansTexans
Offensive plays5361
Total yards187312 (edge)
Yards per play3.55.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.430.00 (edge)
Success rate28%48% (edge)
Dropback rate60%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.380.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.51-0.11 (edge)
Third downs1/123/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)3 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps1019 (edge)
Sacks taken61 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.43.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

24/32, 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.1 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

16/20, 168 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.4 expected points added · +13.0% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

16 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

12 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

7/8 for 80 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

7/7 for 72 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 25540:56Punt
2HOUHOU 3213586:47Field goal +3
3TENTEN 2511274:37Punt
4HOUHOU 614897:30Touchdown +7
5TENTEN 252-100:08Defensive touchdown
6TENTEN 25592:47Punt
7HOUHOU 367442:58Field goal +3
8TENTEN 25562:16Punt
9HOUHOU 31460:50Punt
10TENTEN 226431:11Field goal +3
11HOUHOU 2013715:25Field goal +3
12TENTEN 2518718:37Turnover on downs
13HOUHOU 411375:37Punt
14TENTEN 106252:45Turnover on downs
15HOUTEN 35422:03Field goal +3
16TENTEN 25511:42Punt
17HOUHOU 10452:01Punt
18TENTEN 423111:50End of game

6 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 89 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Ryan Tannehill16/20168005-2.4
Will Levis2/616001-9.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry12423.50-2.2
Jonathan Ward3113.70-1.8
Tyjae Spears600.00-6.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Hopkins7772028%7.7
Chigoziem Okonkwo3434016%-1.2
Chris Moore1332012%-1.1
Tyjae Spears4629024%-2.4
Treylon Burks2311012%1.8
Kevin Rader11604%0.1
Derrick Henry01004%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
K'Von Wallace740.000
Otis Reese460.000
Elijah Molden610.000
Azeez Al-Shaair160.000
Roger McCreary410.000
Keondre Coburn220.000
Harold Landry221.000
Eric Garror200.000
Garret Wallow110.000
Jaleel Johnson110.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud24/322131014.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Singletary16805.001.1
Dameon Pierce8162.00-2.9
Nico Collins177.000.3
C.J. Stroud144.00-1.0
John Metchie144.00-0.3
Dare Ogunbowale100.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins7880026%4.7
Robert Woods4458013%3.8
Brevin Jordan221916%2.4
Dalton Schultz2419013%-0.0
John Metchie138010%-0.9
Xavier Hutchinson238010%-1.8
Noah Brown12806%-0.1
Devin Singletary336010%-1.3
Dameon Pierce11503%0.0
Eric Saubert11203%0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Pitre340.000
Desmond King250.001
Derek Barnett241.500
Derek Stingley320.000
DeAndre Houston-Carson220.000
Khalil Davis120.000
Christian Harris120.002
Denzel Perryman120.000
Teair Tart110.000
Jake Hansen110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -5
Closing total
44
TEN moneyline
+190
HOU moneyline
-230

Texans closed -5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 44; the game landed 29 — under by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
TEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.