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Atlanta Falcons 17 at New Orleans Saints 48. Final.
Saints -3.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 18
New Orleans Saints 48, Falcons 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 13:45, 3rd and 8, on Alontae Taylor — 12.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:45 · 3rd and 8
Alontae Taylor
Saints
(13:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at ATL 41. 1-A.Taylor to ATL 25 for 16 yards (9-D.Ridder).
Dome
Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.
New Orleans Saints 48–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:45, Saints +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Scott MillerFalconsQ1 11:02(11:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 16-S.Miller to NO 18 for 56 yards (31-J.Howden).
12.3pts
Rashid ShaheedSaintsQ3 9:02(9:02) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.63 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 3 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Falcons168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(13:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at ATL 41. 1-A.Taylor to ATL 25 for 16 yards (9-D.Ridder).
Swing +12.4 for SaintsExpected points +4.54 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 96
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:45ATL +12% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at ATL 41. 1-A.Taylor to ATL 25 for 16 yards (9-D.Ridder).
1st · 11:02NO +12% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 16-S.Miller to NO 18 for 56 yards (31-J.Howden).
3rd · 9:02NO +11% win prob(9:02) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:24NO +11% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:08NO +9% win prob(13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:09NO +9% win prob(8:09) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed to NO 44 for 20 yards (34-C.Phillips). PENALTY on ATL-34-C.Phillips, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 44.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Olave's 26-yard touchdown catch with 13:08 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Saints ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Falcons: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.21Saints: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Falcons: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.46Saints: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.63Falcons: −0.63 expected points added per play
−0.02Saints: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 60 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Saints’s 66 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Saints 8.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
NO's play-action rate, 32.3%, is past their previous high of 22.6% in week 13 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 17.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
ATL's blitz rate sent turned over: 39.5% in week 17 against 12.9% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Saints11.1%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteNO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 32.3%, 19.2 points above their season mean of 13.1% and 2.5 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Ridder pass+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:24 · Falcons · 2nd & 6 at ATL 29 · gained 71 · +5.98 EP · +18.2% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 92 yards from the NO 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.4248%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.2570%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.3641%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.1764%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.0470%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.5057%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.5920%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5-0.7640%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 41
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Falcons6Saints0
Falcons7Saints0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Saints 9
Falcons7Saints6
Falcons7Saints7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Falcons13Saints7
Falcons14Saints7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
The period ended10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 36
2nd quarter53 plays
Falcons14Saints13
Falcons14Saints14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Falcons 3
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 30
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Falcons 47
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Falcons 11
Falcons14Saints17
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 5
Falcons17Saints17
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 12
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 27
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Falcons17Saints23
Falcons17Saints24
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 34
Falcons17Saints30
Falcons17Saints31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Falcons 39
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 2 to the Saints 4
4th quarter47 plays
Falcons17Saints34
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Falcons 6
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 33
Falcons17Saints40
Falcons17Saints41
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 1
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 24
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Saints 33
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Saints 33
Falcons17Saints47
Falcons17Saints48
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -3.5
Closing total
41.5
Falcons moneyline
+145
Saints moneyline
-175
Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 65 — over by 23.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Dennis Allen
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 13:37
NO +8% win prob
(13:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 14 for 12 yards (59-A.Smith; 27-R.Grant). INJURY UPDATE: ATL 55-K.Elliss, knee, QUESTIONABLE to return.
1st · 13:15ATL +8% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 31 for -9 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [17-A.Ebiketie], recovered by NO-74-J.Hurst at NO 35.
