2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -3.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.

New Orleans Saints 48–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 13:45, ATL +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 13:45ATL 17 — NO 17ATL ball · 3rd & 8NO 59%

(13:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at ATL 41. 1-A.Taylor to ATL 25 for 16 yards (9-D.Ridder).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 13:45ATL +12% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at ATL 41. 1-A.Taylor to ATL 25 for 16 yards (9-D.Ridder).
Q1 · 11:02NO +12% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 16-S.Miller to NO 18 for 56 yards (31-J.Howden).
Q3 · 9:02NO +11% win prob(9:02) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:24NO +11% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:49ATL Touchdown
(8:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — NO 0
Q1 · 5:07NO Touchdown
(5:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-A.Perry for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — NO 7
Q1 · 4:24ATL Touchdown
(4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 14 — NO 7
Q2 · 11:09NO Touchdown
(11:09) 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 25-K.Miller left end to ATL 1 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman; 95-T.Graham). New Orleans challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 25-K.Miller left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 14 — NO 14
Q2 · 0:58NO Field goal
(:58) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: ATL 14 — NO 17
Q2 · 0:03ATL Field goal
(:03) 6-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 17 — NO 17
Q3 · 13:08NO Touchdown
(13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — NO 24
Q3 · 9:02NO Touchdown
(9:02) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — NO 31
Q4 · 10:00NO Field goal
(10:00) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: ATL 17 — NO 34
Q4 · 9:05NO Touchdown
(9:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — NO 41
Q4 · 1:13NO Touchdown
(1:13) New quarterback for NO is 2-J.Winston. 21-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — NO 48

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Saints
Offensive plays	60	66
Total yards	389	400 (edge)
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.1
Expected points added / play	-0.30	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	42%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.63	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

22/30, 291 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.9 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

22/28, 264 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

15.0 expected points added · +19.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Kendre MillerRB

13 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

6 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

7/8 for 103 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

3/4 for 65 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	6	10	2:39	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 21	8	94	3:39	Touchdown +7
3	NO	NO 25	9	65	3:41	Touchdown +7
4	ATL	ATL 25	4	75	0:48	Touchdown +7
5	NO	NO 25	18	75	8:09	Touchdown +7
6	ATL	ATL 25	5	15	2:21	Punt
7	NO	NO 21	7	32	4:08	Punt
8	ATL	ATL 7	4	4	2:07	Punt
9	NO	ATL 38	8	21	1:32	Field goal +3
10	ATL	ATL 25	11	63	0:56	Field goal +3
11	ATL	ATL 25	4	2	1:24	Interception
12	NO	ATL 25	3	25	0:35	Touchdown +7
13	ATL	ATL 25	5	9	1:26	Punt
14	NO	NO 20	6	80	2:41	Touchdown +7
15	ATL	ATL 25	15	73	7:40	Turnover on downs
16	NO	NO 2	12	92	6:17	Field goal +3
17	ATL	ATL 25	4	10	0:48	Fumble
18	NO	ATL 10	2	6	0:07	Touchdown +7
19	ATL	ATL 25	5	4	1:00	Punt
20	NO	NO 19	4	5	1:32	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 32	4	0	1:57	Punt
22	NO	NO 31	4	-12	2:26	Punt
23	ATL	ATL 44	4	23	0:54	Interception
24	NO	ATL 1	2	1	0:03	Touchdown +7
25	ATL	ATL 25	4	17	1:10	End of game

11 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 94 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	22/30	291	2	1	0	6.9
Logan Woodside	3/4	27	0	1	1	-10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	11	28	2.5	-4.4
Tyler Allgeier	6	24	4.0	-2.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	5	20	4.0	-1.8
Logan Woodside	1	6	6.0	0.3
Desmond Ridder	2	0	0.0	-6.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Bijan Robinson	7	8	103	1	24%	2.9
Scott Miller	2	2	66	0	6%	5.3
Drake London	4	9	41	0	26%	-1.0
Jonnu Smith	3	3	29	1	9%	2.8
Kyle Pitts	2	3	27	0	9%	-3.2
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	17	0	3%	1.4
Van Jefferson	2	3	13	0	9%	-0.2
John FitzPatrick	1	1	12	0	3%	0.7
Tyler Allgeier	3	3	10	0	9%	-0.4
KhaDarel Hodge	0	1	0	0	3%	-9.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Richie Grant	4	6	1.0	0
Nate Landman	5	5	0.0	0
Andre Smith	5	3	0.0	1
Clark Phillips	4	1	0.0	1
Lacale London	1	3	0.0	0
Calais Campbell	3	1	1.0	0
Arnold Ebiketie	1	2	0.0	0
Kaden Elliss	2	1	0.0	0
Lorenzo Carter	2	1	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	3	0	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	22/28	264	4	0	2	15.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kendre Miller	13	73	5.6	1	1.8
Taysom Hill	6	51	8.5	0	1.5
Jamaal Williams	14	26	1.9	1	-3.0
Derek Carr	1	6	6.0	0	0.1
Lynn Bowden	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	3	4	65	1	16%	6.5
Chris Olave	3	3	56	1	12%	6.7
A.T. Perry	3	3	53	2	12%	6.2
Juwan Johnson	3	3	40	0	12%	5.2
Taysom Hill	4	4	28	0	16%	0.8
Jamaal Williams	3	3	8	0	12%	-1.2
Kendre Miller	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.2
Lynn Bowden	1	1	5	0	4%	-1.0
Foster Moreau	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.3
Jordan Mims	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Johnathan Abram	4	5	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	5	4	0.0	0	0
Paulson Adebo	4	3	0.0	0	1
Ugochukwu Amadi	2	5	0.0	0	0
Carl Granderson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Pete Werner	2	2	0.0	0	0
D'Marco Jackson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Nathan Shepherd	3	0	1.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	1	2	0.0	1	1
Jordan Howden	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3.5
Closing total: 41.5
ATL moneyline: +145
NO moneyline: -175

Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 65 — over by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: ATL 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Dennis Allen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.