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2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BillsBuffalo21
BY 7final margin
DolphinsMiami14
Buffalo Bills 21 at Miami Dolphins 14. Final.
Bills -2.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 18
Buffalo Bills 21, Dolphins 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:02, 4th and 14 — 24.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:02 · 4th and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Bills
(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Buffalo Bills 21–14. Biggest swing: Q4 14:02, Bills +24.2% win probability on one snap.
24.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ty JohnsonDolphinsQ2 0:11(:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 26-T.Johnson to MIA 2 for 9 yards (33-E.Apple; 55-J.Baker).
15.0pts
Josh AllenDolphinsQ3 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at MIA 28 for -7 yards (94-C.Wilkins). FUMBLES (94-C.Wilkins) [94-C.Wilkins], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at MIA 27.
14.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 10 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 7 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bills154 of 167 plays carry both curves
(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
Swing −24.2 for DolphinsExpected points −6.11 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 6 points higher than the market did.play 122
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:02BUF +24% win prob(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
2nd · 0:11BUF +15% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 26-T.Johnson to MIA 2 for 9 yards (33-E.Apple; 55-J.Baker).
3rd · 0:17BUF +14% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at MIA 28 for -7 yards (94-C.Wilkins). FUMBLES (94-C.Wilkins) [94-C.Wilkins], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at MIA 27.
2nd · 8:58MIA +12% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:56MIA +11% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to MIA 7 for 36 yards (33-E.Apple) [53-C.Goode].
4th · 8:39MIA +11% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at MIA 3 for 28 yards (4-K.Kohou).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dawson Knox's 5-yard touchdown catch with 7:21 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Bills: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.04Dolphins: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.02Dolphins: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Bills: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.06Dolphins: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 75 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 48 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Dolphins 2.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 18 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 44.3 points.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.8% in week 17 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Dolphins17.8%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteBUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 20.4 points below their season mean of 23.8% and 2.0 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Bailey punts−21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q4 14:02 · Dolphins · 4th & 14 at MIA 38 · gained nothing · -6.11 EP · −21.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
42%
Yards
748
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.0956%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.1168%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.0648%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2417%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Dolphins 5
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Bills 46
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Dolphins 35
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Bills0Dolphins6
Bills0Dolphins7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Bills 25
Bills6Dolphins7
Bills7Dolphins7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 6
Bills7Dolphins13
Bills7Dolphins14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 11
3rd quarter30 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 48
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Dolphins 24
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Dolphins 18
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Bills13Dolphins14
Touchdown6 plays
Bills14Dolphins14
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 26
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bills20Dolphins14
Bills21Dolphins14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Dolphins 3
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 28
The period ended17 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Dolphins 37
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Bills 40
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -2.5
Closing total
47.5
Bills moneyline
-155
Dolphins moneyline
+130
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 35 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Bills 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Mike McDaniel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 6:08
BUF +10% win prob
(6:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Apple at MIA -5. 33-E.Apple to MIA 3 for 8 yards (13-G.Davis).
4th · 1:17BUF +9% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 83-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-T.Rapp at BUF 22. 20-T.Rapp to BUF 22 for no gain (83-C.Claypool). BUF-20-T.Rapp was injured during the play.
