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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q4 14:02, 4th and 14 — 24.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 21–14. Biggest swing: Q4 14:02, Bills +24.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:02 · 4th and 14
Unnamed on the sheet
Bills
(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
24.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 10 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 7 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dawson Knox's 5-yard touchdown catch with 7:21 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryDolphins
Bills ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 75 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 48 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Dolphins 2.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 18 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 44.3 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
BUF's blitz rate sent, 3.4%, is past their previous low of 12.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.8% in week 17 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Bills1.6 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 75 snaps
Dolphins-5.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 93%
Tendencies room →Bills63.2%inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 57 early downs
Dolphins50.0%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Bills22.2%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 20.1%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Dolphins20.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -65% to 161%
Fourth Down room →Bills100.0%leaned — went for it · +51.7 vs their 48.3%, and they swing ±44.3 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 53%
Tendencies room →Bills3.4%off script — sat back · −20.4 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−2.05× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Dolphins35.6%inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 40%
Tendencies room →Bills10.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Dolphins17.8%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
BUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 20.4 points below their season mean of 23.8% and 2.0 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
30/38, 359 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
3.9 expected points added · +18.2% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
17/27, 173 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
1.3 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Deonte Harty banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/38, 359 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 15 car, 67 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.2 | −2.8 | 77% | 83% | 48% | 64% | 7/13, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.5 | +6.5 | 77% | 84% | 16% | 13% | 6/6, 105 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 15.7 | +3.5 | 88% | 96% | 22% | 30% | 7/8, 87 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Featured Receiver | 15.4 | +3.1 | 55% | 71% | 22% | 16% | 7/8, 84 yd |
| Devon AchaneRB · Committee Back | 13.1 | +6.7 | 63% | 59% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 56 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.4 | +1.6 | 71% | 69% | 11% | 13% | 3/4, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | +0.5 | 47% | 38% | 8% | 6% | 2/3, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 8.2 | −7.1 | 62% | 64% | 11% | 7% | 13 car, 36 yd · 3/4, 16 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +7.0 | 18% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 7.6 | −4.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/27, 173 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +1.3 | 75% | 76% | 11% | 7% | 3/3, 30 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | 4.5 | 0.0 | 48% | 55% | 0% | — | 9 car, 45 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.7 | 96% | 100% | 11% | 18% | 1/3, 24 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.1 | 46% | 55% | 7% | 3% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.3 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2.4 | −1.1 | 17% | 24% | 3% | 3% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Leonard FournetteRB | 2.0 | −1.4 | 21% | 9% | 0% | — | 7 car, 20 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.6 | 33% | 31% | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 0.0 | −6.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Alec IngoldRB | 0.0 | — | 33% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q4 14:02 · Dolphins · 4th & 14 at MIA 38 · gained nothing · -6.11 EP · −21.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Bills0
Dolphins6Bills0Dolphins7Bills6Dolphins7Bills7Dolphins7Bills7Dolphins13Bills7Dolphins14How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Bills13Dolphins14Bills14Dolphins14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bills20Dolphins14Bills21Dolphins14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 30/38 | 359 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 | +4.9 |
| James Cook | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Leonard Fournette |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 6 | 105 | 0 | 16% | +7.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 8 | 87 | 0 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/27 | 173 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_BUF_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 35 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 7 |
| 20 |
| 2.9 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| +4.6 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 7 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 22% | +4.6 |
| Trent Sherfield | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 11% | +2.7 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 8% | +1.8 |
| James Cook | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 11% | −0.0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −3.0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −6.7 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Baylon Spector | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dane Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Achane | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 13 | 82 | 1 | 48% | +2.3 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 11% | +1.3 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 11% | +0.1 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.8 |
| Devon Achane | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −2.5 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShon Elliott | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| David Long Jr. | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Melvin Ingram | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
