2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Miami Dolphins

BUF -2.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Buffalo Bills 21–14. Biggest swing: Q4 14:02, BUF +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:02BUF 13 — MIA 14MIA ball · 4th & 14MIA 72%

(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:02BUF +24% win prob(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q2 · 0:11BUF +15% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 26-T.Johnson to MIA 2 for 9 yards (33-E.Apple; 55-J.Baker).
Q3 · 0:17BUF +14% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at MIA 28 for -7 yards (94-C.Wilkins). FUMBLES (94-C.Wilkins) [94-C.Wilkins], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at MIA 27.
Q2 · 8:58MIA +12% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 8:58MIA Touchdown
(8:58) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — MIA 7
Q2 · 4:36BUF Touchdown
(4:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 16-T.Sherfield for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — MIA 7
Q2 · 1:46MIA Touchdown
(1:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — MIA 14
Q4 · 14:02BUF Touchdown
(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — MIA 14
Q4 · 7:21BUF Touchdown
(7:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 21 — MIA 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Dolphins
Offensive plays	75	48
Total yards	475 (edge)	275
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	49% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	60%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	9/15 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

30/38, 359 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.9 expected points added · +18.2% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

17/27, 173 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

1.3 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

10 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

6/6 for 105 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

7/8 for 87 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	6	19	2:17	Interception
2	BUF	BUF 16	12	79	6:45	Interception
3	MIA	MIA 3	7	50	3:29	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 11	6	54	2:19	Interception
5	MIA	MIA 20	12	80	6:19	Touchdown +7
6	BUF	BUF 25	9	80	4:20	Touchdown +7
7	MIA	MIA 25	11	69	2:48	Touchdown +7
8	BUF	BUF 25	11	73	1:43	End of half
9	BUF	BUF 25	10	19	5:04	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 15	4	9	2:14	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 24	13	59	7:30	Fumble
12	MIA	MIA 27	5	31	1:30	Defensive touchdown
13	MIA	MIA 25	5	1	1:34	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 26	9	74	4:52	Touchdown +7
15	MIA	MIA 25	5	3	1:02	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 26	11	37	4:21	Turnover on downs
17	MIA	MIA 37	4	13	0:40	Interception
18	BUF	BUF 22	2	0	1:13	End of game

4 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	30/38	359	2	2	3	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	15	67	4.5	4.9
James Cook	13	36	2.8	-2.2
Leonard Fournette	7	20	2.9	-1.1
Ty Johnson	1	5	5.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	6	6	105	0	16%	7.3
Stefon Diggs	7	8	87	0	22%	4.6
Dalton Kincaid	7	8	84	0	22%	4.6
Trent Sherfield	3	4	24	1	11%	2.7
Dawson Knox	2	3	22	1	8%	1.8
James Cook	3	4	16	0	11%	-0.0
Deonte Harty	1	1	12	0	3%	0.5
Ty Johnson	1	1	9	0	3%	-3.0
Gabe Davis	0	2	0	0	5%	-6.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terrel Bernard	3	6	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	4	5	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	5	1	0.0	0	0
Baylon Spector	1	3	0.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	2	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Benford	2	1	0.0	1	1
Dane Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	1
Tyrel Dodson	2	0	1.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	1	1	0.0	0	1
Gabe Davis	1	0	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	17/27	173	1	2	0	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devon Achane	10	56	5.6	1	1.7
Jeffery Wilson	9	45	5.0	0	-0.5
Tua Tagovailoa	1	7	7.0	0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	7	13	82	1	48%	2.3
Durham Smythe	3	3	30	0	11%	1.3
Cedrick Wilson	1	3	24	0	11%	0.1
River Cracraft	1	1	18	0	4%	0.6
Braxton Berrios	2	2	9	0	7%	0.8
Devon Achane	1	1	5	0	4%	0.1
Chase Claypool	1	2	3	0	7%	-2.5
Julian Hill	1	2	2	0	7%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
DeShon Elliott	6	4	0.0	1	1
David Long Jr.	7	2	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	5	3	0.0	1	1
Jerome Baker	3	5	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	6	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	2	5	0.5	0	0
Melvin Ingram	3	1	1.5	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	2	2	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	1	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Wilkins	4	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
BUF moneyline: -155
MIA moneyline: +130

Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 35 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: BUF 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.