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2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears

9

Green Bay PackersWinner

17

GB -2.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓

Green Bay Packers 17–9. Biggest swing: Q2 4:01, GB +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑CHI ↓
Q2 · 4:01CHI 3 — GB 7CHI ball · 3rd & 4GB 67%

(4:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore to GB 17 for 33 yards (37-C.Valentine).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 4:01GB +12% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore to GB 17 for 33 yards (37-C.Valentine).
  2. Q2 · 0:11CHI +11% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 13-D.Wicks to CHI 19 for 3 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
  3. Q1 · 2:39CHI +10% win prob(2:39) 17-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
  4. Q4 · 12:57GB +10% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at CHI 13 for 59 yards (4-E.Jackson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:59CHI Field goal

    (8:59) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — GB 0
  2. Q2 · 7:25GB Touchdown

    (7:25) 10-J.Love pass short right to 13-D.Wicks for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — GB 7
  3. Q2 · 1:20CHI Field goal

    (1:20) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — GB 7
  4. Q3 · 9:52GB Touchdown

    (9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — GB 14
  5. Q4 · 13:07CHI Field goal

    (13:07) 8-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 9 — GB 14
  6. Q4 · 10:57GB Field goal

    (10:57) 17-A.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: CHI 9 — GB 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsPackers
Offensive plays4658
Total yards192434 (edge)
Yards per play4.27.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.100.24 (edge)
Success rate41%55% (edge)
Dropback rate52%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.020.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.220.12 (edge)
Third downs3/117/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)28 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1224 (edge)
Sacks taken51 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

27/32, 316 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.1 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

11/16, 148 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

22 att, 111 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

12 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Jayden ReedWR

4/4 for 112 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

4/6 for 64 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 3111376:06Field goal +3
2GBGB 2513526:18Missed field goal
3CHICHI 316193:34Punt
4GBGB 812926:42Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 3412456:03Field goal +3
6GBGB 258561:17End of half
7GBGB 2511755:13Touchdown +7
8CHICHI 229274:53Punt
9GBGB 206313:37Fumble
10CHICHI 428413:14Field goal +3
11GBGB 286652:09Field goal +3
12CHICHI 3210234:46Punt
13GBGB 612636:08End of game

6 of 13 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields11/16148005-1.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Khalil Herbert12282.30-4.0
Justin Fields8273.401.9
Roschon Johnson5204.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore4664038%4.0
Cole Kmet3441025%1.4
Equanimeous St. Brown111806%1.3
Khalil Herbert2213013%0.1
Tyler Scott1212013%0.2
Robert Tonyan01006%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds630.000
T.J. Edwards530.000
Jaquan Brisker340.000
Eddie Jackson320.001
Tyrique Stevenson500.001
Terell Smith310.001
Montez Sweat210.000
Kyler Gordon210.000
Dominique Robinson110.000
Andrew Billings110.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love27/3231620115.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones221115.001.8
Bo Melton2147.001.0
Jordan Love3-1-0.30-6.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jayden Reed44112013%8.0
Bo Melton5762022%2.4
Dontayvion Wicks6761222%4.7
Tucker Kraft333109%1.2
Aaron Jones5530016%1.5
Luke Musgrave111103%0.8
Malik Heath349013%-0.9
Romeo Doubs01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quay Walker531.000
De'Vondre Campbell340.000
Jonathan Owens320.000
Darnell Savage320.000
Carrington Valentine310.001
Keisean Nixon210.000
Kenny Clark111.000
Jaire Alexander200.001
Rashan Gary110.001
Kingsley Enagbare200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -2.5
Closing total
45.5
CHI moneyline
+124
GB moneyline
-148

Packers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 26 — under by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
34°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
CHI 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.