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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q1 8:59, 3rd and 9, on Charlie Jones — 7.3 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:59, Bengals +7.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:59 · 3rd and 9
Charlie Jones
Bengals
(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
7.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Browns at 6 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Joe Mixon's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:11 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 52 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Bengals’s 61 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Bengals 4.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's blitz rate sent turned over: 18.0% in week 17 against 45.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-13.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.0 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 52 snaps
Bengals0.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 5.7 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 89%
Tendencies room →Browns50.0%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 40 early downs
Bengals44.9%leaned — ran early · −18.2 vs their 63.1%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.88× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 49%
Tendencies room →Browns28.1%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bengals18.2%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Browns33.3%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±25.7 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals0.0%leaned — took the kick · −29.6 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Browns45.5%leaned — sent pressure · +15.9 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals18.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 24.6%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 38%
Tendencies room →Browns15.2%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals25.0%leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
CIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 44.9%, 18.2 points below their season mean of 63.1% and 1.9 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 11 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 11
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
13/26, 166 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-11.0 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
18/24, 156 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
2.5 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
David Bell banked 18.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe MixonRB · Committee Back | 24.7 | +7.5 | 55% | 55% | 7% | 0% | 14 car, 111 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 22.8 | +18.0 | 98% | 97% | 16% | 28% | 4/4, 68 yd, 2 TD |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.6 | +6.9 | 92% | 94% | 25% | 40% | 5/7, 36 yd, 2 TD |
| Jake BrowningQB · Starter QB | 18.0 | +4.2 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 18/24, 156 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 18 yd |
| Jeff DriskelQB · Starter QB | 13.9 | +5.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/26, 166 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 7 car, 33 yd |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +3.3 | 33% | 42% | 11% | 35% | 2 car, 13 yd · 3/3, 49 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | +0.5 | 64% | 72% | 24% | 30% | 3/6, 43 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB · Committee Back | 6.5 | −1.8 | 51% | 41% | 4% | 8% | 14 car, 65 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | −2.5 | 28% | 18% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 43 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Featured Receiver | 5.9 | −2.5 | 48% | 61% | 21% | 7% | 4/6, 19 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.7 | 41% | 39% | 7% | 28% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Featured Receiver | 5.4 | −1.6 | 64% | 66% | 24% | 11% | 3/6, 24 yd |
| Jerome FordRB · Receiving Back | 5.2 | +0.2 | 36% | 38% | 12% | 2% | 3 car, 6 yd · 2/3, 26 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.4 | 47% | 55% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.4 | 73% | 67% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 1.5 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.5 | 42% | 48% | 7% | 15% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| AJ McCarronQB | 0.8 | −0.3 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 28% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.4 | 94% | 97% | 16% | 22% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | -0.2 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
Q1 8:59 · Bengals · 3rd & 9 at CIN 41 · gained 35 · +3.62 EP · +12.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 94 yards from the CIN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Browns0
Bengals6Browns0Bengals7Browns0Bengals13Browns0Bengals14Browns0Bengals20Browns0Bengals21Browns0Bengals24Browns0Bengals30Browns0Bengals31Browns6Bengals31Browns7Bengals31Browns13Bengals31Browns14Bengals31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 13/26 | 166 | 2 | 2 | 3 | −11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Strong | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Jeff Driskel | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Jerome Ford |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bell | 4 | 4 | 68 | 2 | 16% | +9.6 |
| Cedric Tillman | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fields | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Kamara | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 18/24 | 156 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2.5 |
| AJ McCarron | 3/4 | 20 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_CLE_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 37; the game landed 45 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.3 |
| −3.5 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 12% | +0.4 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 24% | −1.2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Pierre Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| James Proche | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16% | −8.3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Kunaszyk | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Gray | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Matthew Adams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McGuire | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Mitchell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Wright | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Anthony Bell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Chase Brown | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Jake Browning | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Charlie Jones | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Jones | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 11% | +4.7 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 5 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 25% | +4.0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 7% | +3.7 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 21% | −2.1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | −0.6 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7% | +0.4 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7% | −4.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dax Hill | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| B.J. Hill | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Ossai | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Turner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Sample | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Germaine Pratt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Hilton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
