2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Paycor Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -7.5 ✓O 37 ✓Bengals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Cincinnati Bengals 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:59, CIN +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:59CLE 0 — CIN 0CIN ball · 3rd & 9CIN 78%

(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:59CIN +7% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
Q1 · 13:29CLE +6% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep left intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle [91-T.Hendrickson] at CIN 45. 27-J.Battle ran ob at CIN 45 for no gain.
Q1 · 11:59CLE +5% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 37-Da.Bell at CLE 22. 37-Da.Bell to CLE 24 for 2 yards (16-T.Irwin).
Q1 · 11:02CLE +3% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel sacked at CLE 17 for -9 yards (sack split by 92-B.Hill and 91-T.Hendrickson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:11CIN Touchdown
(6:11) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 7
Q1 · 0:53CIN Touchdown
(:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 28-J.Mixon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 14
Q2 · 9:23CIN Touchdown
(9:23) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 21
Q2 · 2:00CIN Field goal
(2:00) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 24
Q3 · 3:37CIN Touchdown
(3:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 31
Q4 · 8:51CLE Touchdown
(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep left to 18-Dav.Bell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — CIN 31
Q4 · 2:39CLE Touchdown
(2:39) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep right to 18-Dav.Bell for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — CIN 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Bengals
Offensive plays	52	61
Total yards	245	328 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.25	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	37%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	2/11	3/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Jeff DriskelQB

13/26, 166 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-11.0 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jake BrowningQB

18/24, 156 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

2.5 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 111 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Pierre StrongRB

14 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

David BellWR

4/4 for 68 yds, 2 TD

16% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Charlie JonesWR

3/3 for 49 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 23	4	6	1:36	Interception
2	CIN	CIN 45	4	22	1:32	Interception
3	CLE	CLE 24	4	-7	1:42	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 40	8	70	4:03	Touchdown +7
5	CLE	CLE 25	5	1	2:16	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 33	6	67	3:03	Touchdown +7
7	CLE	CLE 25	5	0	1:04	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 25	9	65	5:25	Touchdown +7
9	CLE	CLE 25	6	20	2:31	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 4	6	10	2:55	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 43	2	4	0:39	Interception
12	CIN	CLE 34	4	7	1:19	Field goal +3
13	CLE	CLE 25	8	47	1:55	End of half
14	CIN	CIN 23	5	-13	1:40	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 46	4	6	1:36	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 1	15	89	8:12	Touchdown +7
17	CLE	CLE 25	7	22	1:54	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 17	4	5	1:20	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 38	6	16	2:26	Punt
20	CIN	CIN 11	4	-4	1:59	Punt
21	CLE	CLE 45	6	55	2:08	Touchdown +7
22	CIN	CIN 19	5	9	2:13	Punt
23	CLE	CLE 25	10	75	3:58	Touchdown +7
24	CIN	CIN 25	5	1	2:05	Punt
25	CLE	CLE 18	1	0	0:29	End of game

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 89 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jeff Driskel	13/26	166	2	2	3	-11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Pierre Strong	14	65	4.6	-1.5
Jeff Driskel	7	33	4.7	0.5
Jerome Ford	3	6	2.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Bell	4	4	68	2	16%	9.6
Cedric Tillman	3	6	43	0	24%	-3.5
Jerome Ford	2	3	26	0	12%	0.4
Jordan Akins	3	6	24	0	24%	-1.2
Kareem Hunt	1	1	5	0	4%	-1.1
Pierre Strong	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
James Proche	0	4	0	0	16%	-8.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tony Fields	4	5	0.0	0	0
Sam Kamara	4	3	0.0	0	0
Duron Harmon	3	3	1.0	0	0
Jordan Kunaszyk	4	2	0.0	0	0
Vincent Gray	4	1	0.0	0	2
Matthew Adams	3	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah McGuire	4	0	1.0	0	0
Cameron Mitchell	4	0	0.0	0	0
Alex Wright	2	1	1.0	0	0
D'Anthony Bell	3	0	0.0	1	1

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jake Browning	18/24	156	3	1	2	2.5
AJ McCarron	3/4	20	0	0	1	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	14	111	7.9	1	3.3
Chase Brown	11	43	3.9	0	-3.0
Jake Browning	2	18	9.0	0	1.3
Charlie Jones	2	13	6.5	0	1.1
Trayveon Williams	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Charlie Jones	3	3	49	0	11%	4.7
Andrei Iosivas	5	7	36	2	25%	4.0
Trenton Irwin	2	2	34	0	7%	3.7
Ja'Marr Chase	4	6	19	0	21%	-2.1
Tanner Hudson	2	2	11	0	7%	-1.0
Chase Brown	1	2	10	0	7%	-0.6
Drew Sample	2	2	7	0	7%	-0.2
Joe Mixon	1	2	6	1	7%	0.4
Tyler Boyd	1	2	4	0	7%	-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Dax Hill	4	1	0.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	2	3	0.0	1	1
B.J. Hill	2	2	0.5	0	0
Joseph Ossai	1	2	0.0	0	1
D.J. Turner	3	0	0.0	0	1
Cam Sample	1	1	0.0	0	1
Cam Taylor-Britt	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Battle	1	1	1.0	1	2
Germaine Pratt	1	1	0.0	0	1
Mike Hilton	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -7.5
Closing total: 37
CLE moneyline: +285
CIN moneyline: -360

Bengals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 37; the game landed 45 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: CLE 10 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.