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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 14 at Cincinnati Bengals 31. Final.
Bengals -7.5 ✓O 37 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 18
Cincinnati Bengals 31, Browns 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:59, 3rd and 9, on Charlie Jones — 7.3 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:59 · 3rd and 9
Charlie Jones
Bengals
(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
15 mph wind
Bengals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Cincinnati Bengals 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:59, Bengals +7.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
7.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan BattleBengalsQ1 13:29(13:29) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep left intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle [91-T.Hendrickson] at CIN 45. 27-J.Battle ran ob at CIN 45 for no gain.
5.9pts
D'Anthony BellBrownsQ1 11:59(11:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 37-Da.Bell at CLE 22. 37-Da.Bell to CLE 24 for 2 yards (16-T.Irwin).
4.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Browns at 6 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Browns153 of 163 plays carry both curves
(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
Swing +7.3 for BengalsExpected points +3.62 for BengalsThe model had Browns 18 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:59CIN +7% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
1st · 13:29CLE +6% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep left intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle [91-T.Hendrickson] at CIN 45. 27-J.Battle ran ob at CIN 45 for no gain.
1st · 11:59CLE +5% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 37-Da.Bell at CLE 22. 37-Da.Bell to CLE 24 for 2 yards (16-T.Irwin).
1st · 11:02CLE +3% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel sacked at CLE 17 for -9 yards (sack split by 92-B.Hill and 91-T.Hendrickson).
1st · 3:51CIN +2% win prob(3:51) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CLE 23 for 44 yards (31-V.Gray).
1st · 9:37CLE +2% win prob(9:37) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 41 for -1 yards (29-C.Mitchell, 40-M.Adams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Mixon's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:11 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:11Joe Mixon·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
4th8:51David Bell·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel+77–31
4th2:39David Bell·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel+714–31
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryBengals
Browns0–8Bengals
245Total yards328
4.7Yards per play5.4
37%Success rate48%
18%Third-down rate25%
0Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays10
13First downs20
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.25Browns: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.01Bengals: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.31Browns: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.01Bengals: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Browns: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.02Bengals: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 52 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Bengals’s 61 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Bengals 4.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's blitz rate sent turned over: 18.0% in week 17 against 45.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals25.0%
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteCIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 44.9%, 18.2 points below their season mean of 63.1% and 1.9 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Browning pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 15-C.Jones to CLE 24 for 35 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
Q1 8:59 · Bengals · 3rd & 9 at CIN 41 · gained 35 · +3.62 EP · +12.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 94 yards from the CIN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
43%
Yards
572
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.5058%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0555%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3953%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0218%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR8+0.48100%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0533%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Browns 33
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Browns0Bengals6
Browns0Bengals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Browns 1
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 26
Browns0Bengals13
Browns0Bengals14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Browns 6
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays
Browns0Bengals20
Browns0Bengals21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 3
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 45
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 4 to the Bengals 24
Intercepted2 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Browns 47
Browns0Bengals24
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 27
The period ended12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 42
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Bengals 48
Browns0Bengals30
Browns0Bengals31
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bengals 1 to the Browns 7
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 42
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 22
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 41
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 11 to the Bengals 16
Browns6Bengals31
Browns7Bengals31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Bengals 31
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 28
Browns13Bengals31
Browns14Bengals31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 24
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
