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2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · FedExField

Dallas CowboysWinner

38

Washington Commanders

10

DAL -13 ✓O 47.5 ✓

Dallas Cowboys 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:36, DAL +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑DAL ↓
Q2 · 11:36DAL 7 — WAS 7DAL ball · 2nd & 6DAL 90%

(11:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin (56-J.Harris) at WAS 38. 20-J.Martin to WAS 45 for 7 yards (63-T.Biadasz).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 11:36DAL +10% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 13-M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin (56-J.Harris) at WAS 38. 20-J.Martin to WAS 45 for 7 yards (63-T.Biadasz).
  2. Q2 · 15:00WAS +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 10:11WAS +5% win prob(10:11) 61-J.Good-Jones reported in as eligible. 8-B.Robinson right guard to DAL 44 for 2 yards (6-D.Wilson, 33-D.Clark).
  4. Q2 · 8:45WAS +5% win prob(8:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 4-C.Samuel to DAL 16 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:30DAL Touchdown

    (6:30) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-J.Tolbert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — WAS 0
  2. Q2 · 15:00WAS Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — WAS 7
  3. Q2 · 7:07WAS Field goal

    (7:07) 6-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — WAS 10
  4. Q2 · 4:15DAL Touchdown

    (4:15) 71-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 14 — WAS 10
  5. Q2 · 0:29DAL Touchdown

    (:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 21 — WAS 10
  6. Q3 · 8:37DAL Touchdown

    (8:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 28 — WAS 10
  7. Q3 · 4:11DAL Touchdown

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-B.Cooks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 35 — WAS 10
  8. Q4 · 1:11DAL Field goal

    (1:11) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 38 — WAS 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysCommanders
Offensive plays6948
Total yards440 (edge)181
Yards per play6.4 (edge)3.8
Expected points added / play0.36 (edge)-0.30
Success rate62% (edge)35%
Dropback rate58%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.58 (edge)-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.50
Third downs6/10 (edge)2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)4 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps29 (edge)12
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

31/36, 279 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

22.1 expected points added · +17.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

19/27, 153 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-6.8 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

17 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Rico DowdleRB

9 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

13/13 for 98 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 10.3 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Jake FergusonTE

6/6 for 69 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 2510424:47Turnover on downs
2DALDAL 339673:47Touchdown +7
3WASWAS 25250:07Fumble
4DALWAS 318172:58Missed field goal
5WASDAL 208203:24Touchdown +7
6DALDAL 258363:27Interception
7WASWAS 459474:26Field goal +3
8DALDAL 299562:52Touchdown +7
9WASWAS 259282:32Interception
10DALDAL 357651:17Touchdown +7
11WASWAS 19200:23End of half
12DALDAL 2514756:32Touchdown +7
13WASWAS 285-22:28Punt
14DALWAS 94291:54Touchdown +7
15WASWAS 296273:06Interception
16DALDAL 813597:03Missed field goal
17WASWAS 266-43:46Punt
18DALDAL 328364:05Field goal +3
19WASWAS 253181:06End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott31/3627941022.1
Cooper Rush3/4300000.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard17704.111.4
Rico Dowdle9465.100.3
CeeDee Lamb177.000.5
Kavontae Turpin155.000.2
Brandin Cooks133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb131398233%10.3
Jake Ferguson6669015%8.3
Rico Dowdle3454010%3.4
Brandin Cooks6839120%3.7
Peyton Hendershot112403%1.5
Tony Pollard221605%1.5
Jalen Tolbert23818%0.8
Jalen Brooks11103%-0.4
Michael Gallup02005%-6.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Stephon Gilmore600.001
Micah Parsons311.000
Damone Clark310.001
Donovan Wilson220.011
Buddy Johnson310.000
Daron Bland210.011
Sam Williams210.500
Demarcus Lawrence210.002
Jourdan Lewis300.000
Dorance Armstrong211.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Howell19/27153124-6.8
Dyami Brown1/14000-0.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson9252.80-5.6
Curtis Samuel11515.001.0
Antonio Gibson284.000.5
Derrick Gore133.00-0.8
Sam Howell4-1-0.30-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin6856029%-2.4
Antonio Gibson3428014%1.8
Jahan Dotson2317011%0.4
Curtis Samuel2415014%-2.3
Brian Robinson3310111%1.2
Alex Armah111004%1.6
Logan Thomas12907%0.2
Jamison Crowder11804%-0.4
Sam Howell11404%-0.3
John Bates01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Khaleke Hudson1030.000
Terrell Burgess720.000
Cody Barton440.000
Kyu Blu Kelly500.000
Quan Martin310.011
Emmanuel Forbes400.000
David Mayo220.000
Benjamin St-Juste400.000
Daron Payne120.000
Sean Chandler210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -13
Closing total
47.5
DAL moneyline
-850
WAS moneyline
+575

Cowboys closed -13 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 48 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
48°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
DAL 8 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.