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Las Vegas Raiders 27, Broncos 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 10:44, 2nd and 22, on Jerry Jeudy — 16.8 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:44 · 2nd and 22
Jerry Jeudy
Broncos
(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Raiders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Las Vegas Raiders 27–14. Biggest swing: Q2 10:44, Broncos +16.8% win probability on one snap.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ2 1:55(1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 64 yards to LV 2, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-B.Niemann.
9.8pts
Tre TuckerRaidersQ2 0:46(:46) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 11-T.Tucker ran ob at DEN 15 for 47 yards (23-F.Moreau).
9.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Raiders won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Broncos at 4 of 12 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.00 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.04 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Broncos155 of 169 plays carry both curves
(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.8 for RaidersExpected points −3.63 for RaidersThe model had Broncos 5 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:44LV +17% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:55LV +10% win prob(1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 64 yards to LV 2, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-B.Niemann.
2nd · 0:46LV +9% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 11-T.Tucker ran ob at DEN 15 for 47 yards (23-F.Moreau).
2nd · 5:23LV +8% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short middle to 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 36 for 16 yards (1-M.Epps).
1st · 5:06LV +6% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 11-T.Tucker ran ob at DEN 28 for 10 yards.
2nd · 3:25LV +6% win prob(3:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to LV 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
3rd · 8:36
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 49-yard field goal with 7:14 left in the 2nd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th2:23Daniel Carlson·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+314–27
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryRaiders
Broncos0–7Raiders
287Total yards361
4.9Yards per play5.7
41%Success rate44%
33%Third-down rate54%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays7
17First downs22
5Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Raiders ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.13Raiders: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Broncos: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.31Raiders: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.10Raiders: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 58 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Raiders’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Raiders 4.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 18Against their seasonTendencies
LV's sack or hit rate, 27.5%, is past their previous high of 23.9% in week 14 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 17.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders27.5%
off script — got home · +14.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+2.21× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.5%, 14.1 points above their season mean of 13.4% and 2.2 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%61 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%61 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%61 snaps
4Jarrett StidhamQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation62%38 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation59%36 snaps
85Lucas KrullTE · Heavy rotation54%33 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
89Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational46%28 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational46%28 snaps
19Marvin MimsWR · Rotational43%26 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Rotational41%25 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Rotational38%23 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational16%10 snaps
75Quinn BaileyG · Situational16%10 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Situational15%9 snaps
45Nate AdkinsTE · Situational13%8 snaps
Inactive · 6
Alex ForsythCArt GreenCBElijah GarciaDEThomas IncoomOLBChris ManhertzTEMichael BandyWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Stidham pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:44 · Broncos · 2nd & 22 at LV 24 · gained 24 · +3.63 EP · +11.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 98 yards from the LV 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
645
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2767%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1789%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.1625%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.5145%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.220%
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 23
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 23
Broncos0Raiders6
Broncos0Raiders7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Broncos 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Raiders 45
2nd quarter57 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Broncos6Raiders7
Broncos7Raiders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Raiders 12
Broncos7Raiders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 31
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 36
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 23
Punt5 plays
Broncos7Raiders16
Broncos7Raiders17
Touchdown17 plays, from the Raiders 2 to the Broncos 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 27
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Raiders 48
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 24
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Raiders 36
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 37 to midfield
4th quarter43 plays
Broncos7Raiders23
Broncos7Raiders24
Touchdown2 plays
Broncos13Raiders24
Broncos14Raiders24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 1
Broncos14Raiders27
Field goal19 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 3
Intercepted7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 43
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -3.5
Closing total
37.5
Broncos moneyline
+145
Raiders moneyline
-175
Raiders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 41 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Antonio Pierce
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
LV +6% win prob
(8:36) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 13 yards (36-C.Bolton). PENALTY on DEN-37-R.Moss, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 23.
2nd · 3:57DEN +6% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 27 for -7 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
