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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q2 10:44, 2nd and 22, on Jerry Jeudy — 16.8 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Las Vegas Raiders 27–14. Biggest swing: Q2 10:44, Broncos +16.8% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:44 · 2nd and 22
Jerry Jeudy
Broncos
(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Raiders won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Broncos at 4 of 12 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.00 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.04 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Carlson's 49-yard field goal with 7:14 left in the 2nd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Daniel Carlson49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.BobenmoyerLead never changed again+37–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 58 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Raiders’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Raiders 4.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LV's sack or hit rate, 27.5%, is past their previous high of 23.9% in week 14 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos0.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +4.3 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 58 snaps
Raiders-1.6 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 81%
Tendencies room →Broncos62.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 43 early downs
Raiders44.0%leaned — ran early · −10.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Broncos12.5%inside their normal wobble · −8.6 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Raiders25.7%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 72%
Fourth Down room →Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.6%.
Raiders—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 64%
Tendencies room →Broncos31.4%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders15.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 32%
Tendencies room →Broncos14.3%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders27.5%off script — got home · +14.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+2.21× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
LV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.5%, 14.1 points above their season mean of 13.4% and 2.2 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
20/34, 272 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.4 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected
Passing · LV
20/31, 244 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.4 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jakobi Meyers banked 10.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 21.6 | +10.1 | 88% | 89% | 19% | 38% | 1 car, 5 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 20.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 35% | 28% | 1% | 9 car, 32 yd, 1 TD · 7/9, 43 yd |
| Aidan O'ConnellQB · Starter QB | 17.9 | +4.1 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 244 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 1 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 16.9 | +8.5 | 62% | 73% | 19% | 40% | 3/6, 79 yd, 1 TD |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.6 | +0.6 | 94% | 92% | 30% | 18% | 5/8, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Tre TuckerWR · Featured Receiver | 14.0 | +5.9 | 64% | 69% | 19% | 33% | 1 car, 11 yd · 5/5, 79 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.1 | −3.2 | 73% | 50% | 7% | 0% | 25 car, 112 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Jarrett StidhamQB · Starter QB | 13.1 | +2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/34, 272 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 2 yd |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +5.6 | 46% | 50% | 16% | 26% | 4/5, 88 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | −1.0 | 86% | 89% | 19% | 11% | 4/5, 39 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Receiving Back | 6.0 | −1.3 | 38% | 43% | 13% | 0% | 3 car, 7 yd · 3/4, 23 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.6 | 51% | 35% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.7 | 43% | 53% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 16 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 1.7 | +0.2 | 27% | 47% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −3.8 | 46% | 45% | 13% | 14% | 1/4, 2 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 0.6 | −1.1 | 15% | 13% | 0% | — | 4 car, 6 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 54% | 68% | 3% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 59% | 63% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB | 0.0 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 21% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| D.J. TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:44 · Broncos · 2nd & 22 at LV 24 · gained 24 · +3.63 EP · +11.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 98 yards from the LV 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Raiders6Broncos0Raiders7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos6Raiders7Broncos7Raiders7Broncos7Raiders10Broncos7Raiders16Broncos7Raiders17Broncos7Raiders23Broncos7Raiders24Broncos13Raiders24Broncos14Raiders24Broncos14Raiders27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 20/34 | 272 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Johnson | 4 | 5 | 88 | 0 | 16% | +4.6 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 20/31 | 244 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +11.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_DEN_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 41 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| −2.4 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| +4.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 9 | 43 | 0 | 28% | +1.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | −0.6 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +2.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13% | −2.6 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Lucas Krull | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Sanders | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 25 | 112 | 4.5 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 19% | +5.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 5 | 61 | 1 | 19% | +6.3 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 30% | +2.3 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 19% | +3.2 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Facyson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Turner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
