2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
Denver Broncos
14
Las Vegas RaidersWinner
27
Las Vegas Raiders 27–14. Biggest swing: Q2 10:44, LV +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 10:44LV +17% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 1:55LV +10% win prob(1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 64 yards to LV 2, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-B.Niemann.
- Q2 · 0:46LV +9% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 11-T.Tucker ran ob at DEN 15 for 47 yards (23-F.Moreau).
- Q2 · 5:23LV +8% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short middle to 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 36 for 16 yards (1-M.Epps).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 1:53LV Touchdown
(1:53) 16-J.Meyers scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 0 — LV 7 - Q2 · 10:44DEN Touchdown
(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — LV 7 - Q2 · 7:14LV Field goal
(7:14) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: DEN 7 — LV 10 - Q2 · 0:11LV Touchdown
(:11) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — LV 17 - Q4 · 15:00LV Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — LV 24 - Q4 · 10:13DEN Touchdown
(10:13) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 33-J.Williams. 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 14 — LV 24 - Q4 · 2:23LV Field goal
(2:23) 2-D.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: DEN 14 — LV 27
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 58 | 63 |
| Total yards | 287 | 361 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.9 | 5.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.04 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Success rate | 41% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 69% | 56% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.00 | 0.31 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.15 | -0.10 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/12 | 7/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · DEN
20/34, 272 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.4 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected
Passing · LV
20/31, 244 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.4 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 32 | 5 | -1 | 1:09 | Punt | |
| 2 | LV | LV 21 | 4 | 2 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 11 | 6 | 12 | 2:29 | Punt | |
| 4 | LV | LV 22 | 14 | 73 | 8:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 16 | 13 | 84 | 6:10 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | LV | LV 25 | 9 | 44 | 3:25 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 25 | 8 | 12 | 3:50 | Punt | |
| 8 | LV | LV 21 | 4 | 2 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 39 | 4 | 5 | 0:39 | Punt | |
| 10 | LV | LV 2 | 13 | 98 | 1:36 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | DEN | DEN 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:07 | End of half | |
| 12 | LV | LV 24 | 5 | 3 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 29 | 7 | 16 | 3:57 | Punt | |
| 14 | LV | LV 20 | 4 | 4 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 13 | 10 | 51 | 5:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | LV | LV 37 | 7 | 63 | 3:32 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 25 | 10 | 76 | 4:44 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | LV | LV 25 | 16 | 72 | 7:49 | Field goal +3 | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 32 | 1:19 | Interception | |
| 20 | LV | LV 17 | 2 | 0 | 1:01 | End of game |
7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 98 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Denver Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 20/34 | 272 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 | 2.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Johnson | 4 | 5 | 88 | 0 | 16% | 4.6 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 19% | 4.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 9 | 43 | 0 | 28% | 1.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | -0.6 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | 2.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13% | -2.6 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.4 |
| Lucas Krull | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Sanders | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Las Vegas Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 20/31 | 244 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 25 | 112 | 4.5 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | -0.5 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 19% | 5.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 5 | 61 | 1 | 19% | 6.3 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 30% | 2.3 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 19% | 3.2 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | 0.4 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 0.4 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | -0.8 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Facyson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Turner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- LV -3.5
- Closing total
- 37.5
- DEN moneyline
- +145
- LV moneyline
- -175
Raiders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 41 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Roof / surface
- dome · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- DEN 7 days · LV 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean Payton vs Antonio Pierce
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.