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2023 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 6, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

23

Indianapolis Colts

19

HOU -1.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 1:06, HOU +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 1:06HOU 23 — IND 17IND ball · 4th & 1HOU 78%

(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:06HOU +21% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.
  2. Q1 · 9:15IND +16% win prob(9:15) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner].
  3. Q3 · 1:43IND +13% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman to HOU 48 for 18 yards (25-D.King). PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 48.
  4. Q3 · 10:06IND +13% win prob(10:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:19IND Field goal

    (9:19) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — IND 3
  2. Q1 · 9:15HOU Touchdown

    (9:15) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — IND 3
  3. Q2 · 2:00HOU Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 47-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 14 — IND 3
  4. Q2 · 0:40IND Field goal

    (:40) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: HOU 14 — IND 6
  5. Q3 · 10:06IND Touchdown

    (10:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: HOU 14 — IND 14
  6. Q3 · 3:44HOU Field goal

    (3:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — IND 14
  7. Q4 · 13:37IND Field goal

    (13:37) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — IND 17
  8. Q4 · 6:23HOU Touchdown

    (6:23) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — IND 17
  9. Q4 · 0:08IND Safety

    (:08) (Punt formation) 11-C.Johnston right end pushed ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY (37-A.Speed).

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — IND 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansColts
Offensive plays5663
Total yards306362 (edge)
Yards per play5.55.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.12 (edge)-0.01
Success rate48% (edge)41%
Dropback rate55%43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.45 (edge)-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.290.06 (edge)
Third downs5/13 (edge)1/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)511 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1518 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Colts outgained Texans 362–306 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

20/26, 264 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.1 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

13/24, 141 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -11.3% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

30 att, 188 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

24 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

9/9 for 195 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 14.5 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

3/3 for 48 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 2512565:45Field goal +3
2HOUHOU 253750:09Touchdown +7
3INDIND 23521:43Punt
4HOUHOU 247183:52Punt
5INDIND 145141:02Punt
6HOUHOU 356242:38Punt
7INDIND 16163:40Punt
8HOUHOU 307203:20Punt
9INDIND 11481:28Punt
10HOUHOU 439574:26Touchdown +7
11INDIND 257371:22Field goal +3
12HOUHOU 25530:28Punt
13INDIND 34100:07End of half
14HOUHOU 256233:14Punt
15INDIND 135891:50Touchdown +8
16HOUHOU 25520:58Punt
17INDIND 207413:21Missed field goal
18HOUHOU 475201:58Field goal +3
19INDIND 2511445:06Field goal +3
20HOUHOU 2714797:13Touchdown +6
21INDIND 2513555:17Turnover on downs
22HOUHOU 154-151:02Safety
23IND—100:01Fumble

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 89 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud20/2626420212.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Singletary24632.61-5.5
C.J. Stroud3206.702.0
Cameron Johnston1-23-23.00-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins99195135%14.5
Dalton Schultz5742027%3.1
Andrew Beck22918%1.7
Xavier Hutchinson146015%-3.6
John Metchie12508%-0.7
Eric Saubert11504%0.4
Devin Singletary11204%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Harris751.000
Blake Cashman390.000
Jalen Pitre330.000
Denzel Perryman330.000
Desmond King230.000
DeAndre Houston-Carson130.001
Derek Barnett220.000
Kurt Hinish120.000
Maliek Collins200.001
Dare Ogunbowale200.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew13/24141001-3.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor301886.311.6
Zack Moss6305.000.5
Gardner Minshew199.000.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Downs3348013%3.2
Michael Pittman5644026%4.1
Kylen Granson112304%1.9
Mo Alie-Cox2418017%0.4
Jonathan Taylor22809%-0.9
Tyler Goodson02009%-5.2
Alec Pierce040017%-4.3
Will Mallory01004%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed830.000
Segun Olubi800.000
Zaire Franklin260.000
DeForest Buckner151.000
Ronnie Harrison321.000
Nick Cross210.000
Jaylon Jones120.000
Samson Ebukam120.000
Julius Brents200.000
Kenny Moore200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -1.5
Closing total
47.5
HOU moneyline
-125
IND moneyline
+105

Texans closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 42 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
HOU 6 days · IND 6 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.