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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 6, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
TexansHouston23
BY 4final margin
ColtsIndianapolis19
Houston Texans 23 at Indianapolis Colts 19. Final.
Texans -1.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 18
Houston Texans 23, Colts 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:06, 4th and 1, on Gardner Minshew — 21.1 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:06 · 4th and 1
Gardner Minshew
Texans
(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.
Dome
Texans closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Houston Texans 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 1:06, Texans +21.1% win probability on one snap.
21.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nico CollinsTexansQ1 9:15(9:15) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner].
16.1pts
Michael PittmanColtsQ3 1:43(1:43) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman to HOU 48 for 18 yards (25-D.King). PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 48.
13.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Texans at 5 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Texans won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Colts at 1 of 11 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Texans161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.
Swing −21.1 for ColtsExpected points −3.68 for ColtsThe model had Colts 5 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:06HOU +21% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.
1st · 9:15IND +16% win prob(9:15) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner].
3rd · 1:43IND +13% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman to HOU 48 for 18 yards (25-D.King). PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 48.
3rd · 10:06IND +13% win prob(10:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:45IND +13% win prob(6:45) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to IND 7 for 23 yards (48-R.Harrison) [94-Ty.Lewis]. PENALTY on IND-48-R.Harrison, Horse Collar Tackle, 4 yards, enforced at IND 7.
4th · 2:27IND +11% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to HOU 24 for 5 yards (25-D.King; 53-B.Cashman).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Devin Singletary's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:23 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st9:19Matt Gay·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–3
3rd3:44Ka'imi Fairbairn·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+317–14
4th13:37Matt Gay·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+317–17
4th6:23Devin Singletary·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+623–17
4th0:08Ameer Speed·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+223–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Texans4–5Colts
306Total yards362
5.5Yards per play5.7
48%Success rate41%
38%Third-down rate9%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays11
15First downs18
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Colts ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Texans: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Texans: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Texans: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.06Colts: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Colts’s 63 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Colts 5.
NoteColts outgained Texans 362-306 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −23.5 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 34.4% in week 17 against 11.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Colts12.9%
inside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -23.5 pts, 19.3 points below their season mean of -4.2 pts and 2.0 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.
Q4 1:06 · Colts · 4th & 1 at HOU 15 · gained nothing · -3.68 EP · −26.1% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 87 yards from the IND 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0339%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.1658%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2458%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.4663%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.4663%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+1.0629%
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.4817%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Texans0Colts3
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 14
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Texans6Colts3
Texans7Colts3
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 25
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 43
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Colts 48
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 1 to the Colts 23
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 30 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Colts 19
Texans13Colts3
Texans14Colts3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Colts 1
Texans14Colts6
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 34
Punt8 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to midfield
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Texans14Colts12
Texans14Colts14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Texans 49
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 27
No good7 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Texans 39
Texans17Colts14
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Colts 33
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 23
4th quarter41 plays
Texans17Colts17
Field goal3 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 16
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Texans23Colts17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Colts 3
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
The period ended14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 15
Texans23Colts19
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 23
Fumble lost1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
