For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q4 12:18, 2nd and 6, on Andre Cisco — 18.9 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 28–20. Biggest swing: Q4 12:18, Jaguars +18.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:18 · 2nd and 6
Andre Cisco
Jaguars
(12:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 43. 5-A.Cisco pushed ob at TEN 28 for 29 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 2 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(12:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 43. 5-A.Cisco pushed ob at TEN 28 for 29 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derrick Henry's 18-yard rushing touchdown with 8:33 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 52 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Titans 4.
Jaguars outgained Titans 362-330 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's blitz rate sent, 6.7%, is past their previous low of 9.8% in week 14 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
JAX's blitz rate sent, 13.8%, is past their previous low of 17.9% in week 16 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 17 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.9 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.3 pts in week 17 against −0.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
JAX's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.5% in week 17 against 65.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-0.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 66 snaps
Titans-0.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their -5.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 87%
Tendencies room →Jaguars65.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 60.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 49 early downs
Titans48.8%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 51.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 52%
Tendencies room →Jaguars8.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.6 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Titans27.6%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars66.7%leaned — went for it · +35.2 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±22.9 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Titans—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 49%
Tendencies room →Jaguars13.8%leaned — sat back · −13.4 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans6.7%leaned — sat back · −13.9 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Jaguars24.1%leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans4.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
TEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 13.9 points below their season mean of 20.6% and 1.7 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
29/43, 280 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
1.6 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
17/26, 168 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.9 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyjae Spears banked 14.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan EngramTE · Alpha Receiver | 23.9 | +4.9 | 89% | 98% | 32% | 23% | 10/13, 79 yd, 1 TD |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Featured Receiver | 22.6 | +4.5 | 85% | 87% | 24% | 52% | 6/10, 106 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 21.6 | +14.4 | 31% | 48% | 12% | 0% | 3 car, 25 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.3 | +10.6 | 65% | 55% | 0% | — | 19 car, 153 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.6 | +0.7 | 78% | 97% | 38% | 45% | 0/1, 0 yd · 7/10, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 16.2 | −6.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/43, 280 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 10 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.7 | −2.0 | 66% | 62% | 15% | 0% | 16 car, 57 yd · 5/6, 30 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 12.4 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 4% | 0% | 17/26, 168 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, -3 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | −2.6 | 93% | 96% | 22% | 23% | 6/9, 47 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +0.8 | 64% | 59% | 15% | 19% | 3/4, 30 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 5.6 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Kyle PhilipsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 68% | 73% | 2% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Tim JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.8 | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 1.6 | −0.2 | 13% | 11% | 0% | — | 3 car, 16 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Elijah CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kevin RaderTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.1 | 31% | 38% | 8% | 20% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Mason KinseyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | -0.1 | −0.5 | 21% | 27% | 0% | — | 1 car, -1 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:31 · Jaguars · 1st & 15 at JAX 41 · gained 59 · +5.41 EP · +18.5% win probability
153 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 88 yards from the JAX 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars3
Titans0Jaguars3Titans6Jaguars3Titans7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Jaguars9Titans7Jaguars10Titans7Jaguars10Titans13Jaguars10Titans14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jaguars10Titans20Jaguars10Titans21Jaguars13Titans21Jaguars13Titans27Jaguars13Titans28Jaguars19Titans28Jaguars20Titans28How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 29/43 | 280 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 6 | 10 | 106 | 1 | 24% | +6.2 |
| Evan Engram | 10 | 13 | 79 | 1 | 32% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Campbell | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foyesade Oluokun |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/26 | 168 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +0.9 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_JAX_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 48 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 10 |
| 3.3 |
| 0 |
| −4.9 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| +0.7 |
| Zay Jones | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 22% | −4.2 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 15% | −0.8 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2% | +1.9 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 153 | 8.1 | 1 | +5.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Ty Zentner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 38% | −3.9 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 12% | +3.8 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 12% | +1.3 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 15% | +1.5 |
| Kyle Philips | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | +2.1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Kevin Rader | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger McCreary | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otis Reese | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| K'Von Wallace | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Davidson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
