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Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at Tennessee Titans 28. Final.
Jaguars -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 18
Tennessee Titans 28, Jaguars 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:18, 2nd and 6, on Andre Cisco — 18.9 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:18 · 2nd and 6
Andre Cisco
Jaguars
(12:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 43. 5-A.Cisco pushed ob at TEN 28 for 29 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
O 41.5 ✓
Jaguars closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 28–20. Biggest swing: Q4 12:18, Jaguars +18.9% win probability on one snap.
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Calvin RidleyJaguarsQ2 12:31(12:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.2pts
Derrick HenryTitansQ3 14:21(14:21) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 4 for 69 yards (5-A.Cisco).
14.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 2 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.06 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Jaguars155 of 167 plays carry both curves
(12:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 43. 5-A.Cisco pushed ob at TEN 28 for 29 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
Swing −18.9 for TitansExpected points −5.94 for TitansThe model had Titans 5 points higher than the market did.play 134
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:18JAX +19% win prob(12:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 43. 5-A.Cisco pushed ob at TEN 28 for 29 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
2nd · 12:31TEN +18% win prob(12:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:21TEN +15% win prob(14:21) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 4 for 69 yards (5-A.Cisco).
2nd · 6:40JAX +14% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 17-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Edmunds at JAX 38. 38-T.Edmunds to JAX 36 for 2 yards (76-E.Cleveland). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 7:14JAX +10% win prob(7:14) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to TEN 1 for no gain (97-Q.Bohanna).
2nd · 1:11JAX +10% win prob(1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 0-S.Murphy-Bunting at TEN 36. 0-S.Murphy-Bunting to TEN 38 for 2 yards (7-Z.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 18-yard rushing touchdown with 8:33 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:50Brandon McManus·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+33–0
1st6:05Tyjae Spears·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+73–7
Titans ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Jaguars: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.13Titans: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Jaguars: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.02Titans: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Jaguars: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.27Titans: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 52 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Titans 4.
NoteJaguars outgained Titans 362-330 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 17 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.9 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.3 pts in week 17 against −0.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
JAX's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.5% in week 17 against 65.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans4.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteTEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 13.9 points below their season mean of 20.6% and 1.7 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%71 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Luke FortnerC · Full-time97%69 snaps
7Zay JonesWR · Full-time93%66 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Full-time89%63 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time85%60 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation68%48 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation66%47 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Situational23%16 snaps
25D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational21%15 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Situational17%12 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Situational13%9 snaps
14Elijah CooksWR · Situational13%9 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational11%8 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Situational3%2 snaps
69Tyler ShatleyG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Angelo BlacksonDTCole Van LanenGYasir AbdullahOLBMatt BarkleyQBChristian KirkWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Montaric BrownCBC.J. BeathardQB
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Peter SkoronskiT · Every snap100%55 snaps
76Andrew RupcichT · Every snap100%55 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Every snap100%55 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%55 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
71Andre DillardT · Full-time98%54 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Heavy rotation78%43 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Heavy rotation69%38 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation65%36 snaps
11Chris MooreWR · Heavy rotation64%35 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation56%31 snaps
61John OjukwuT · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
86Kevin RaderTE · Rotational31%17 snaps
32Tyjae SpearsRB · Rotational31%17 snaps
12Mason KinseyWR · Situational22%12 snaps
88Trevon WescoTE · Situational20%11 snaps
18Kyle PhilipsWR · Situational7%4 snaps
20Jonathan WardRB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Daniel BrunskillCAnthony KendallCBT.K. McLendonDECaleb MurphyOLBTrevis GipsonOLBWill LevisQBJaelyn DuncanT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass+19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:31 · Jaguars · 1st & 15 at JAX 41 · gained 59 · +5.41 EP · +18.5% win probability
153 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 88 yards from the JAX 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
689
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0368%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.3285%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0457%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.1721%
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8+0.1225%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.7967%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Jaguars3Titans0
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 26
Jaguars3Titans6
Jaguars3Titans7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 28
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jaguars 31
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 20
2nd quarter52 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Jaguars9Titans7
Jaguars10Titans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 46
Jaguars10Titans13
Jaguars10Titans14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 36
Jaguars10Titans20
Jaguars10Titans21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jaguars 3
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Titans 47
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Jaguars 46
Jaguars13Titans21
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Titans 12
3rd quarter35 plays
Jaguars13Titans27
Jaguars13Titans28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 4
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Titans 33
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 37
The period ended10 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Titans 14
4th quarter41 plays
Jaguars19Titans28
Jaguars20Titans28
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 43
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 1
Punt12 plays, from the Titans 1 to the Titans 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 33
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
