2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Nissan Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee TitansWinner

JAX -3.5 upsetO 41.5 ✓Jaguars closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 28–20. Biggest swing: Q4 12:18, JAX +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:18JAX 20 — TEN 28TEN ball · 2nd & 6TEN 85%

(12:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 43. 5-A.Cisco pushed ob at TEN 28 for 29 yards (17-R.Tannehill).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:18JAX +19% win prob(12:18) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 43. 5-A.Cisco pushed ob at TEN 28 for 29 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
Q2 · 12:31TEN +18% win prob(12:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:21TEN +15% win prob(14:21) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 4 for 69 yards (5-A.Cisco).
Q2 · 6:40JAX +14% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 17-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Edmunds at JAX 38. 38-T.Edmunds to JAX 36 for 2 yards (76-E.Cleveland). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:50JAX Field goal
(9:50) 10-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 3 — TEN 0
Q1 · 6:05TEN Touchdown
(6:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 32-T.Spears for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 3 — TEN 7
Q2 · 12:31JAX Touchdown
(12:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — TEN 7
Q2 · 8:33TEN Touchdown
(8:33) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — TEN 14
Q2 · 3:08TEN Touchdown
(3:08) (Shotgun) 32-T.Spears up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — TEN 21
Q2 · 0:05JAX Field goal
(:05) 10-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 13 — TEN 21
Q3 · 12:49TEN Touchdown
(12:49) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 13 — TEN 28
Q4 · 15:00JAX Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 20 — TEN 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Titans
Offensive plays	66	52
Total yards	362 (edge)	330
Yards per play	5.5	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	48% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	68%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.27 (edge)
Third downs	8/14	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Jaguars outgained Titans 362–330 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

29/43, 280 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

1.6 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

17/26, 168 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.9 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

19 att, 153 yds, 1 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

16 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Calvin RidleyWR

6/10 for 106 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

10/13 for 79 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	12	49	5:15	Field goal +3
2	TEN	TEN 25	9	75	3:48	Touchdown +7
3	JAX	JAX 28	5	13	2:03	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 26	6	18	2:00	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 12	8	93	4:30	Touchdown +7
6	TEN	TEN 25	10	75	3:57	Touchdown +7
7	JAX	JAX 24	4	7	1:54	Interception
8	TEN	JAX 36	7	31	3:30	Touchdown +7
9	JAX	JAX 20	6	38	1:57	Interception
10	TEN	TEN 38	6	6	0:44	Turnover on downs
11	JAX	TEN 38	4	26	0:22	Field goal +3
12	TEN	TEN 25	6	75	2:15	Touchdown +7
13	JAX	JAX 29	13	33	5:36	Turnover on downs
14	TEN	TEN 29	4	8	2:01	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 37	11	63	5:13	Touchdown +7
16	TEN	TEN 25	6	18	2:46	Interception
17	JAX	TEN 28	9	32	4:56	Turnover on downs
18	TEN	TEN 1	9	24	4:55	Punt
19	JAX	JAX 25	4	8	0:31	Turnover on downs
20	TEN	JAX 32	3	0	1:47	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 93 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	29/43	280	2	2	0	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Travis Etienne	16	57	3.6	-1.1
Tank Bigsby	3	16	5.3	1.5
Trevor Lawrence	3	10	3.3	-4.9
D'Ernest Johnson	1	-1	-1.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	6	10	106	1	24%	6.2
Evan Engram	10	13	79	1	32%	0.7
Zay Jones	6	9	47	0	22%	-4.2
Travis Etienne	5	6	30	0	15%	-0.8
Parker Washington	1	1	11	0	2%	1.9
Tim Jones	1	2	7	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyson Campbell	5	2	0.0	0	0
Devin Lloyd	3	2	0.0	0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	1	4	0.0	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	0	0.0	0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	1	3	1.0	0	0
Davon Hamilton	2	1	0.0	0	0
Andre Cisco	1	1	0.0	1	1
Travon Walker	1	1	1.0	0	0
Darious Williams	1	1	0.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	17/26	168	2	1	2	0.9
DeAndre Hopkins	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	19	153	8.1	1	5.5
Tyjae Spears	3	25	8.3	1	2.9
Ty Zentner	1	0	0.0	0	-2.3
Ryan Tannehill	3	-3	-1.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	7	10	46	1	38%	-3.9
Tyjae Spears	3	3	41	1	12%	3.8
Chigoziem Okonkwo	2	3	36	0	12%	1.3
Chris Moore	3	4	30	0	15%	1.5
Kyle Philips	2	3	15	0	12%	2.1
Ryan Tannehill	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Kevin Rader	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Roger McCreary	6	3	0	1
Sean Murphy-Bunting	7	1	1	1
Azeez Al-Shaair	5	3	0	0
Otis Reese	5	1	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	3	2	1	1
K'Von Wallace	2	3	0	0
Elijah Molden	1	3	0	1
Marlon Davidson	1	2	0	0
Jaleel Johnson	1	1	0	0
Arden Key	2	0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -3.5
Closing total: 41.5
JAX moneyline: -185
TEN moneyline: +154

Jaguars closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 48 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: JAX 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.