2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -3.5 upsetU 35 ✓DomeChargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, KC +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:14KC 6 — LAC 0LAC ball · 3rd & 5LAC 72%

(5:14) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at KC 8 for -3 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], touched at KC 7, RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 3. 21-M.Edwards for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:14KC +28% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at KC 8 for -3 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], touched at KC 7, RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 3. 21-M.Edwards for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:19KC +19% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass incomplete short left to 1-Q.Johnston.
Q4 · 7:52LAC +17% win prob(7:52) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 89-D.Parham to KC 27 for 11 yards (27-C.Conner) [31-N.Jones].
Q4 · 0:31LAC +15% win prob(:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 33 for 18 yards (43-J.Cochrane). KC-26-D.Bush was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:14KC Touchdown
(5:14) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at KC 8 for -3 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], touched at KC 7, RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 3. 21-M.Edwards for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — LAC 0
Q2 · 4:07KC Field goal
(4:07) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 10 — LAC 0
Q2 · 2:48LAC Field goal
(2:48) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: KC 10 — LAC 3
Q2 · 0:04LAC Field goal
(:04) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: KC 10 — LAC 6
Q3 · 4:15LAC Field goal
(4:15) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: KC 10 — LAC 9
Q4 · 4:09LAC Field goal
(4:09) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: KC 10 — LAC 12
Q4 · 0:54KC Field goal
(:54) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 13 — LAC 12

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Chargers
Offensive plays	58	80
Total yards	269	353 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.14 (edge)	-0.23
Success rate	34%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.38
Third downs	6/16 (edge)	7/19
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	12	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Easton StickQB

28/47, 258 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-15.2 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Blaine GabbertQB

15/30, 154 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.4 expected points added · -17.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Easton StickQB

13 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

La'Mical PerineRB

21 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Donald ParhamTE

5/6 for 83 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Mecole HardmanWR

6/11 for 77 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	5	6	0:55	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 25	18	73	9:09	Defensive touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 24	6	22	1:59	Punt
4	KC	KC 32	6	7	2:33	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 20	4	6	1:16	Punt
6	KC	KC 28	8	27	3:37	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 20	4	1	0:53	Punt
8	KC	KC 30	12	66	5:35	Field goal +3
9	LAC	LAC 25	6	11	1:20	Field goal +3
10	KC	KC 26	7	23	1:19	Interception
11	LAC	LAC 12	9	52	1:24	Field goal +3
12	LAC	LAC 45	5	-1	1:53	Punt
13	KC	KC 17	6	34	2:57	Punt
14	LAC	LAC 15	12	60	5:59	Field goal +3
15	KC	KC 25	9	30	4:03	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 8	6	37	1:37	Punt
17	KC	KC 18	7	25	2:36	Punt
18	LAC	LAC 14	18	84	6:49	Field goal +3
19	KC	KC 25	10	51	3:17	Field goal +3
20	LAC	LAC 25	5	8	0:36	Turnover on downs
21	KC	LAC 32	1	0	0:13	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blaine Gabbert	15/30	154	0	1	1	-9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
La'Mical Perine	21	76	3.6	-1.6
Blaine Gabbert	5	46	9.2	1.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	1	0.5	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mecole Hardman	6	11	77	38%	2.4
La'Mical Perine	3	4	33	14%	0.3
Justyn Ross	2	4	17	14%	0.5
Richie James	2	2	15	7%	-0.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	9	7%	-2.0
Blake Bell	1	2	3	7%	-2.0
Noah Gray	0	3	0	10%	-4.2
Justin Watson	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cam Jones	9	1	0.0	0
Chamarri Conner	8	0	0.0	0
Jaylen Watson	8	0	0.0	2
Jack Cochrane	6	1	0.0	0
Deon Bush	4	2	0.0	0
Nic Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Felix Anudike-Uzomah	3	0	0.0	0
Malik Herring	3	0	1.0	1
Leo Chenal	3	0	0.0	0
Matt Dickerson	1	2	0.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Easton Stick	28/47	258	0	0	3	-15.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Easton Stick	13	77	5.9	5.9
Derius Davis	3	17	5.7	-0.1
Austin Ekeler	10	11	1.1	-8.3
Josh Palmer	1	6	6.0	0.2
Quentin Johnston	1	6	6.0	0.2
Joshua Kelley	2	1	0.5	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Donald Parham	5	6	83	13%	8.6
Josh Palmer	6	10	44	22%	0.3
Austin Ekeler	7	8	38	18%	-0.4
Alex Erickson	2	5	29	11%	-1.0
Derius Davis	1	1	18	2%	0.2
Quentin Johnston	2	5	17	11%	-3.3
Stone Smartt	2	3	14	7%	-0.8
Keelan Doss	1	5	8	11%	-1.6
Gerald Everett	1	1	4	2%	-0.1
Nick Vannett	1	1	3	2%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Derwin James	7	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	5	0	0.0	0	1
Asante Samuel	4	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Niemann	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tuli Tuipulotu	1	3	0.0	0	0
Alohi Gilman	1	2	0.0	1	2
Otito Ogbonnia	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ja'Sir Taylor	2	1	0.0	0	1
Scott Matlock	1	2	0.0	0	0
Khalil Mack	2	0	1.0	0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3.5
Closing total: 35
KC moneyline: +154
LAC moneyline: -185

Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 35; the game landed 25 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: KC 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Giff Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.