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Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q1 5:14, 3rd and 5, on Easton Stick — 28.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:14 · 3rd and 5
Easton Stick
Chiefs
(5:14) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at KC 8 for -3 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], touched at KC 7, RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 3. 21-M.Edwards for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Kansas City Chiefs 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 5:14, Chiefs +28.5% win probability on one snap.
28.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — -0.14 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(5:14) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at KC 8 for -3 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], touched at KC 7, RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 3. 21-M.Edwards for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Harrison Butker's 41-yard field goal with 0:54 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Harrison Butker41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+313–127 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Chargers’s 80 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 1, Chargers 3.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's pass rate over expected, −5.7 pts, is past their previous low of −1.7 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 11.1% in week 17 against 25.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.5% in week 17 against 14.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs-5.7 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −12.5 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−2.01× that swing) · 58 snaps
Chargers5.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 0.7 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 80 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 37% to 83%
Tendencies room →Chiefs53.7%leaned — ran early · −8.9 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 41 early downs
Chargers65.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 60.3%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 58 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 39%
Tendencies room →Chiefs17.1%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chargers12.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.1 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs14.3%inside their normal wobble · −17.1 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers33.3%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 38.2%, and they swing ±25.0 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 64%
Tendencies room →Chiefs15.8%leaned — sat back · −17.3 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Chargers22.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 36%
Tendencies room →Chiefs14.0%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Chargers25.7%leaned — got home · +12.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
KC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -5.7 pts, 12.5 points below their season mean of 6.8 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 8 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
28/47, 258 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-15.2 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected
Passing · KC
15/30, 154 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-9.4 expected points added · -17.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Donald Parham banked 5.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton StickQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | −14.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/47, 258 yd · 13 car, 77 yd |
| La'Mical PerineRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.9 | −4.5 | 81% | 63% | 14% | 1% | 21 car, 76 yd · 3/4, 33 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | −0.9 | 100% | 89% | 38% | 50% | 6/11, 77 yd |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +5.2 | 57% | 53% | 13% | 15% | 5/6, 83 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 11.9 | −8.2 | 76% | 70% | 18% | 0% | 10 car, 11 yd · 7/8, 38 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Featured Receiver | 11.0 | −5.1 | 58% | 51% | 22% | 30% | 1 car, 6 yd · 6/10, 44 yd |
| Blaine GabbertQB · Starter QB | 8.8 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/30, 154 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 46 yd |
| Alex EricksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −1.5 | 69% | 65% | 11% | 7% | 2/5, 29 yd |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +0.5 | 23% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 3 car, 17 yd · 1/1, 18 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −3.6 | 87% | 75% | 11% | 20% | 1 car, 6 yd · 2/5, 17 yd |
| Justyn RossWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −1.6 | 66% | 69% | 14% | 41% | 2/4, 17 yd |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.5 | 83% | 83% | 7% | 5% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.0 | 39% | 35% | 7% | 10% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 2.0 | −1.6 | 19% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 2 car, 1 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Keelan DossWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −7.9 | 35% | 35% | 11% | 9% | 1/5, 8 yd |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.7 | 71% | 49% | 7% | 7% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.1 | 31% | 19% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 0.1 | −1.1 | 22% | 16% | 0% | — | 2 car, 1 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.8 | 47% | 46% | 10% | 4% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 31% | 20% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Scott MatlockRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:14) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at KC 8 for -3 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], touched at KC 7, RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Edwards at KC 3. 21-M.Edwards for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:14 · Chargers · 3rd & goal at KC 5 · lost 2 · -11.64 EP · −31.3% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 182 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 84 yards from the LAC 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Chiefs6
Chargers0Chiefs7Chargers0Chiefs10Chargers0Chiefs10Chargers3Chiefs10Chargers6How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
Chiefs10Chargers9How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs10Chargers12How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Chiefs13Chargers12How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 15/30 | 154 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −9.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La'Mical Perine | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman | 6 | 11 | 77 | 0 | 38% | +2.4 |
| La'Mical Perine | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 14% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Jones | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jack Cochrane |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick | 28/47 | 258 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −15.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_KC_LAC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 35; the game landed 25 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Justyn Ross | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 14% | +0.5 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | −0.6 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −2.0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −2.0 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −4.2 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deon Bush | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Felix Anudike-Uzomah | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Herring | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leo Chenal | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Dickerson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
| 77 |
| 5.9 |
| 0 |
| +5.9 |
| Derius Davis | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 | −8.3 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Parham | 5 | 6 | 83 | 0 | 13% | +8.6 |
| Josh Palmer | 6 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 22% | +0.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 18% | −0.4 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2% | +0.2 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 11% | −3.3 |
| Stone Smartt | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Keelan Doss | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2% | −0.1 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Asante Samuel | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Niemann | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Scott Matlock | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
