2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -5.5 upsetO 40 ✓49ers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, LA +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:33LA 21 — SF 20SF ball · 2nd & 10LA 63%

(:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 37 for -3 yards (94-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-D.Johnson) [94-D.Johnson], RECOVERED by LA-0-B.Young at SF 43.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:33LA +31% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 37 for -3 yards (94-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-D.Johnson) [94-D.Johnson], RECOVERED by LA-0-B.Young at SF 43.
Q4 · 1:08LA +14% win prob(1:08) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to SF 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 22 for 10 yards (97-M.Hoecht, 54-O.Fatukasi).
Q4 · 4:41LA +12% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 18 for -7 yards (97-M.Hoecht).
Q4 · 2:19SF +11% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 5-T.Atwell to LA 45 for 4 yards (26-I.Oliver).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:31SF Touchdown
(7:31) 25-E.Mitchell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 0 — SF 7
Q1 · 1:59LA Touchdown
(1:59) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-7-C.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 7 — SF 7
Q2 · 7:04SF Touchdown
(7:04) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 7 — SF 14
Q2 · 0:16SF Touchdown
(:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-R.Bell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LA 7 — SF 20
Q3 · 4:50LA Touchdown
(4:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LA 13 — SF 20
Q4 · 5:02LA Touchdown
(5:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: LA 21 — SF 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	49ers
Offensive plays	62	57
Total yards	261	300 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	52%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	9/15 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Sam DarnoldQB

16/26, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.5 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Carson WentzQB

17/24, 163 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.1 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Carson WentzQB

17 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Ronnie RiversRB

13 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Chris ConleyWR

3/6 for 69 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Brycen HopkinsTE

2/3 for 47 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	14	75	7:33	Touchdown +7
2	LA	LA 25	13	75	5:34	Touchdown +7
3	SF	SF 25	18	83	9:54	Touchdown +7
4	LA	LA 25	2	0	0:05	Interception
5	SF	LA 36	6	26	2:35	Missed field goal
6	LA	LA 28	7	13	2:41	Punt
7	SF	SF 10	10	90	1:27	Touchdown +6
8	LA	LA 25	4	20	0:11	End of half
9	LA	LA 25	19	80	10:15	Touchdown +6
10	SF	SF 25	8	9	3:43	Punt
11	LA	LA 19	12	39	6:03	Turnover on downs
12	SF	SF 42	4	6	2:10	Punt
13	LA	LA 29	6	25	2:53	Touchdown +8
14	SF	SF 25	5	-7	1:08	Punt
15	LA	LA 34	7	9	2:53	Punt
16	SF	SF 22	4	18	0:30	Fumble
17	LA	SF 43	1	0	0:25	End of game

6 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	17/24	163	2	1	2	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Carson Wentz	17	56	3.3	1	1.0
Ronnie Rivers	13	52	4.0	0	-1.2
Zach Evans	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Royce Freeman	4	2	0.5	0	-2.2
Tutu Atwell	1	-4	-4.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brycen Hopkins	2	3	47	0	13%	2.6
Puka Nacua	4	6	41	1	26%	3.8
Davis Allen	4	4	25	0	17%	3.9
Ben Skowronek	2	2	22	0	9%	2.8
Royce Freeman	1	1	13	0	4%	1.0
Tyler Johnson	2	3	8	1	13%	1.9
Tutu Atwell	2	4	7	0	17%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Russ Yeast	4	3	0.0	2
Troy Reeder	1	5	0.0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	3	2	0.0	0
Michael Hoecht	4	1	1.0	0
Jonah Williams	1	3	0.0	0
John Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Cobie Durant	2	1	0.0	0
Bobby Brown	1	2	0.0	0
Quentin Lake	1	1	0.0	0
Desjuan Johnson	1	1	1.0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/26	189	1	0	3	5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	14	52	3.7	1	-0.7
Jordan Mason	6	36	6.0	0	3.1
Sam Darnold	7	19	2.7	1	0.2
Deebo Samuel	1	11	11.0	0	0.6
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	7	7.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Conley	3	6	69	0	24%	1.3
Brandon Aiyuk	3	4	25	0	16%	2.4
Ray-Ray McCloud	3	4	22	0	16%	1.3
Deebo Samuel	2	2	21	0	8%	1.3
Charlie Woerner	1	1	20	0	4%	1.4
Elijah Mitchell	2	2	15	0	8%	1.2
Jordan Mason	1	1	12	0	4%	0.5
Ronnie Bell	1	5	5	1	20%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Isaiah Oliver	10	0	0.0	0	0
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	4	4	0.0	0	0
Logan Ryan	4	2	0.0	0	0
Oren Burks	3	3	1.0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph	4	1	0.0	0	0
Tayler Hawkins	3	1	0.0	1	1
Kevin Givens	2	1	0.0	0	0
Robert Beal	1	2	1.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	3	0	0.0	0	0
Javon Kinlaw	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -5.5
Closing total: 40
LA moneyline: +200
SF moneyline: -245

49ers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 41 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: LA 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.