For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q4 0:33, 2nd and 10, on Sam Darnold — 31.2 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, Rams +31.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:33 · 2nd and 10
Sam Darnold
Rams
(:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 37 for -3 yards (94-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-D.Johnson) [94-D.Johnson], RECOVERED by LA-0-B.Young at SF 43.
31.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.06 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Rams at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Rams won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against 49ers at 5 of 10 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 37 for -3 yards (94-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-D.Johnson) [94-D.Johnson], RECOVERED by LA-0-B.Young at SF 43.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Carson Wentz's 12-yard rushing touchdown with 5:02 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Ronnie Bell5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnold · kick no good, wide right+67–20
Tyler Johnson8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Carson Wentz · kick no good, wide left+613–20Carson Wentz12-yd TD run12-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+821–206 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 62 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against 49ers’s 57 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, 49ers 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LA's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 5 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 18.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.5 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
LA's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.5 pts in week 17 against −10.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Rams-10.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.8 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 61 snaps
49ers-9.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.7 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−1.73× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 83%
Tendencies room →Rams45.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 42 early downs
49ers50.0%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 43%
Tendencies room →Rams19.4%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
49ers13.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 106%
Fourth Down room →Rams80.0%leaned — went for it · +46.4 vs their 33.6%, and they swing ±28.5 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 58%
Tendencies room →Rams23.3%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
49ers29.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.1 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Rams16.7%inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
49ers9.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
SF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.9 pts, 7.7 points below their season mean of -2.2 pts and 1.7 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
16/26, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.5 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected
Passing · LA
17/24, 163 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
8.1 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Deebo Samuel banked 1.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/26, 189 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Committee Back | 14.7 | −4.7 | 52% | 45% | 8% | 2% | 14 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Chris ConleyWR · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | −0.1 | 70% | 77% | 24% | 29% | 3/6, 69 yd |
| Ronnie BellWR · Featured Receiver | 7.5 | −2.4 | 62% | 71% | 20% | 28% | 1/5, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −0.4 | 59% | 71% | 16% | 16% | 1 car, 7 yd · 3/4, 22 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 5.8 | +1.4 | 44% | 45% | 4% | 2% | 6 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −1.0 | 38% | 26% | 16% | 14% | 3/4, 25 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +1.6 | 33% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 1 car, 11 yd · 2/2, 21 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.4 | 77% | 74% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 37 for -3 yards (94-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (94-D.Johnson) [94-D.Johnson], RECOVERED by LA-0-B.Young at SF 43.
Q4 0:33 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at SF 40 · gained nothing · -1.90 EP · −29.9% win probability
147 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 90 yards from the SF 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
49ers6Rams049ers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Rams649ers7Rams749ers7Rams749ers13Rams749ers14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Rams749ers20Rams1349ers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams1949ers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Rams2149ers20How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/24 | 163 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Zach Evans |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brycen Hopkins | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 13% | +2.6 |
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russ Yeast | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Troy Reeder | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/26 | 189 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_LA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 41 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| +3.8 |
| Davis Allen | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 17% | +3.9 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +2.8 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 13% | +1.9 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 17% | −2.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cobie Durant | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Brown | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desjuan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Jordan Mason | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 | +3.1 |
| Sam Darnold | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 3 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 24% | +1.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 16% | +2.4 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 16% | +1.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Oliver | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Ryan | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tayler Hawkins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Givens | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Beal | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
