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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 30, Vikings 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 2nd and 5, on A.St. — 11.3 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 2nd and 5
A.St.
Lions
(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Detroit Lions 30–20. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Lions +11.3% win probability on one snap.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.St.LionsQ1 10:07(10:07) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at MIN 18 for 34 yards (22-H.Smith).
6.8pts
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ3 0:26(:26) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Lions won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Vikings at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Vikings164 of 175 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.3 for LionsExpected points +5.52 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00DET +11% win prob(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:26DET +11% win prob(:26) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:07DET +7% win prob(10:07) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at MIN 18 for 34 yards (22-H.Smith).
4th · 13:28DET +7% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara].
4th · 3:23MIN +6% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 1-C.Sutton (6-I.Melifonwu) [6-I.Melifonwu] at DET 14. 1-C.Sutton to DET 37 for 23 yards (12-N.Mullens).
3rd · 9:31DET +6% win prob(9:31) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 19-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at MIN 28 for 20 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sam LaPorta's 2-yard touchdown catch with 8:10 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:10Sam LaPorta·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+70–7
1st2:17Jahmyr Gibbs·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+60–13
2nd9:24Greg Joseph·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–13
2nd0:02Greg Joseph·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+36–13
3rd0:26Justin Jefferson·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+713–20
4th15:00Amon-Ra St. Brown·70-yd TD catch70-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+713–27
4th13:28Jordan Addison·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens+720–27
4th8:18Michael Badgley·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap J.McQuaide+320–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Vikings4–5Lions
448Total yards381
6.4Yards per play6.8
39%Success rate43%
15%Third-down rate11%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
12Explosive plays5
21First downs18
4Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Vikings: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.14Lions: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Vikings: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.33Lions: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Vikings: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 70 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Lions’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Lions 6.
NoteVikings outgained Lions 448-381 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's blitz rate sent, 81.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 19.0 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.1 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonFourth Down
DET's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 18.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.9 points.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.9 pts in week 17 against +9.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Lions30.6%
leaned — got home · +13.1 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteMIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 81.8%, 29.3 points above their season mean of 52.5% and 1.7 times their own 17.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Skipper reported+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 15:00 · Lions · 2nd & 5 at DET 30 · gained 70 · +5.52 EP · +11.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 80 yards from the MIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
38%
Yards
829
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.2284%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.1668%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0944%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.6050%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3455%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.0643%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4850%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 38
Vikings0Lions6
Vikings0Lions7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Vikings 2
Punt5 plays
Vikings0Lions13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Vikings 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 46
2nd quarter47 plays
Vikings3Lions13
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Lions 8
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 43
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Vikings 37
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 38
Vikings6Lions13
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Lions 22
3rd quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 31
Vikings6Lions19
Vikings6Lions20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 33
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Vikings 49
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Vikings12Lions20
Vikings13Lions20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Lions 38
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Vikings13Lions26
Vikings13Lions27
Touchdown2 plays
Vikings19Lions27
Vikings20Lions27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 42
Vikings20Lions30
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 12
Intercepted14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 26
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Lions 42
Intercepted3 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
