2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Ford Field

Minnesota Vikings

Detroit LionsWinner

DET -3.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓DomeLions closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Detroit Lions 30–20. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, DET +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 15:00MIN 13 — DET 26DET ball · 2nd & 5DET 83%

(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 15:00DET +11% win prob(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:26DET +11% win prob(:26) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:07DET +7% win prob(10:07) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at MIN 18 for 34 yards (22-H.Smith).
Q4 · 13:28DET +7% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:10DET Touchdown
(8:10) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 0 — DET 7
Q1 · 2:17DET Touchdown
(2:17) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIN 0 — DET 13
Q2 · 9:24MIN Field goal
(9:24) 1-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — DET 13
Q2 · 0:02MIN Field goal
(:02) 1-G.Joseph 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — DET 13
Q3 · 7:19DET Touchdown
(7:19) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 6 — DET 20
Q3 · 0:26MIN Touchdown
(:26) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 13 — DET 20
Q4 · 15:00DET Touchdown
(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 13 — DET 27
Q4 · 13:28MIN Touchdown
(13:28) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara]. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 20 — DET 27
Q4 · 8:18DET Field goal
(8:18) 17-M.Badgley 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: MIN 20 — DET 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Lions
Offensive plays	70	56
Total yards	448 (edge)	381
Yards per play	6.4	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.01	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	39%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	2/13 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Vikings outgained Lions 448–381 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Nick MullensQB

30/44, 396 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-2.6 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/32, 320 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Ty ChandlerRB

12 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

10 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

12/14 for 192 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

7/10 for 144 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	5	4	0:55	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 10	7	33	3:58	Punt
3	DET	DET 48	5	52	2:01	Touchdown +7
4	MIN	MIN 25	5	-2	2:01	Punt
5	DET	DET 36	9	64	3:53	Touchdown +6
6	MIN	MIN 20	15	79	7:52	Field goal +3
7	DET	DET 26	7	17	2:49	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 2	8	35	3:56	Punt
9	DET	DET 18	7	17	1:23	Punt
10	MIN	MIN 18	7	57	1:12	Field goal +3
11	MIN	MIN 25	9	46	3:31	Turnover on downs
12	DET	DET 29	10	54	4:15	Touchdown +7
13	MIN	MIN 26	5	-4	2:07	Punt
14	DET	DET 43	4	8	1:30	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 20	7	80	3:17	Touchdown +7
16	DET	DET 25	4	75	0:35	Touchdown +7
17	MIN	MIN 25	5	75	1:23	Touchdown +7
18	DET	DET 25	11	59	5:08	Field goal +3
19	MIN	MIN 25	13	44	5:03	Interception
20	DET	DET 37	4	5	0:24	Punt
21	MIN	MIN 10	3	5	0:39	Interception
22	DET	MIN 39	4	26	2:08	End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	30/44	396	2	2	4	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ty Chandler	12	69	5.8	1.1
Alexander Mattison	7	24	3.4	-1.7
Nick Mullens	2	8	4.0	4.1
Justin Jefferson	1	-12	-12.0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	12	14	192	1	33%	10.8
Johnny Mundt	5	6	58	0	14%	4.8
Jordan Addison	4	8	57	1	19%	-3.8
Josh Oliver	2	3	31	0	7%	1.8
Nick Muse	1	1	22	0	2%	1.4
Ty Chandler	2	3	20	0	7%	0.7
K.J. Osborn	2	4	9	0	9%	-2.5
Alexander Mattison	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.8
Brandon Powell	1	3	2	0	7%	-5.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ivan Pace	4	4	0.0	0
Camryn Bynum	3	3	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	3	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	2	4	0.0	0
Josh Metellus	4	1	0.0	1
Harrison Smith	3	0	0.0	1
Danielle Hunter	2	1	1.0	0
Khyiris Tonga	2	0	0.0	0
Jonathan Bullard	2	0	0.0	0
Nick Mullens	1	0	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	23/32	320	2	0	1	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	10	40	4.0	1	-1.0
Jahmyr Gibbs	13	30	2.3	1	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	7	10	144	1	32%	6.8
Kalif Raymond	2	2	50	0	6%	3.6
Josh Reynolds	5	7	44	0	23%	-1.2
Sam LaPorta	5	7	29	1	23%	-0.7
Donovan Peoples-Jones	2	2	25	0	6%	2.8
James Mitchell	1	1	24	0	3%	2.4
Dan Skipper	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0
Jahmyr Gibbs	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jack Campbell	7	5	1.0	0	0
Cameron Sutton	6	2	0.0	1	2
Alex Anzalone	5	1	0.0	0	0
Ifeatu Melifonwu	3	2	0.0	0	2
Kerby Joseph	5	0	0.0	0	0
Aidan Hutchinson	4	0	2.0	0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	4	0	0.0	1	1
Derrick Barnes	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tyson Alualu	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -3.5
Closing total: 47.5
MIN moneyline: +170
DET moneyline: -205

Lions closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 50 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: MIN 7 days · DET 8 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.