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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q4 15:00, 2nd and 5, on A.St. — 11.3 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 30–20. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Lions +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 2nd and 5
A.St.
Lions
(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Lions won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Vikings at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Sam LaPorta's 2-yard touchdown catch with 8:10 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Lions ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 70 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Lions’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Lions 6.
Vikings outgained Lions 448-381 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's blitz rate sent, 81.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 19.0 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.1 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
DET's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
DET's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 18.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.9 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.9 pts in week 17 against +9.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-2.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 70 snaps
Lions9.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.8 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 89%
Tendencies room →Vikings63.0%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 54 early downs
Lions55.6%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Vikings34.7%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Lions39.4%leaned — faked the run · +14.7 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Vikings66.7%leaned — went for it · +29.7 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±27.9 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Lions33.3%leaned — took the kick · −26.1 vs their 59.4%, and they swing ±19.9 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 96%
Tendencies room →Vikings81.8%leaned — sent pressure · +29.3 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Lions32.7%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Vikings9.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Lions30.6%leaned — got home · +13.1 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
MIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 81.8%, 29.3 points above their season mean of 52.5% and 1.7 times their own 17.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
30/44, 396 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-2.6 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected
Passing · DET
23/32, 320 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.9 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
12/14 for 192 yds, 1 TD
33% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added
Receiving · DET
7/10 for 144 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Justin Jefferson banked 9.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 36.0 | +9.6 | 93% | 94% | 33% | 47% | 1 car, -12 yd · 12/14, 192 yd, 1 TD |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.4 | +8.8 | 72% | 79% | 32% | 55% | 7/10, 144 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 20.8 | +1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 320 yd, 2 TD |
| Nick MullensQB · Starter QB | 20.6 | +4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/44, 396 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 8 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Featured Receiver | 15.7 | +1.7 | 93% | 96% | 19% | 37% | 4/8, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Featured Receiver | 13.9 | +1.4 | 40% | 42% | 23% | 7% | 5/7, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty ChandlerRB · Committee Back | 10.9 | +1.1 | 53% | 49% | 7% | 0% | 12 car, 69 yd · 2/3, 20 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +2.8 | 75% | 78% | 14% | 11% | 5/6, 58 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB | 10.0 | +1.4 | 49% | 52% | 0% | — | 10 car, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −8.1 | 88% | 91% | 23% | 8% | 5/7, 44 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −1.8 | 51% | 48% | 3% | 2% | 13 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +2.5 | 21% | 21% | 6% | 13% | 2/2, 50 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +1.4 | 53% | 41% | 7% | 0% | 2/3, 31 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +0.3 | 37% | 33% | 6% | 9% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 3.9 | −1.3 | 32% | 31% | 2% | 0% | 7 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| James MitchellTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +1.3 | 81% | 79% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 24 yd |
| Nick MuseTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −2.3 | 56% | 65% | 9% | 3% | 2/4, 9 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.8 | 12% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Jason CabindaRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.0 | — | 27% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 15:00 · Lions · 2nd & 5 at DET 30 · gained 70 · +5.52 EP · +11.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 80 yards from the MIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings0
Lions6Vikings0Lions7Vikings0Lions13Vikings3Lions13Vikings6Lions13Vikings6Lions19Vikings6Lions20How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings12Lions20Vikings13Lions20How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings13Lions26Vikings13Lions27Vikings19Lions27Vikings20Lions27Vikings20Lions30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 30/44 | 396 | 2 | 2 | 4 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Nick Mullens |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 12 | 14 | 192 | 1 | 33% | +10.8 |
| Johnny Mundt | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Pace | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/32 | 320 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_MIN_DET
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 50 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +4.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| 14% |
| +4.8 |
| Jordan Addison | 4 | 8 | 57 | 1 | 19% | −3.8 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 7% | +1.8 |
| Nick Muse | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 2% | +1.4 |
| Ty Chandler | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 7% | +0.7 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −2.5 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −5.8 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 10 | 144 | 1 | 32% | +6.8 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 6% | +3.6 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 23% | −1.2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 23% | −0.7 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | +2.8 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Dan Skipper | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 7 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Alex Anzalone | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kerby Joseph | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Alualu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
