2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Gillette Stadium

New York JetsWinner

New England Patriots

NE -2.5 upsetU 28.5 ✓Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 17–3. Biggest swing: Q4 2:10, NYJ +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:10NYJ 9 — NE 3NE ball · 2nd & 9NYJ 79%

(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:10NYJ +17% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
Q4 · 3:43NYJ +11% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 20-Bre.Hall right tackle to NE 40 for -3 yards (33-A.Jennings).
Q2 · 12:58NE +10% win prob(12:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 83-J.Reagor to NYJ 23 for 33 yards (4-D.Reed). PENALTY on NE-83-J.Reagor, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 23.
Q2 · 0:26NYJ +9% win prob(:26) 9-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:07NYJ Field goal
(2:07) 9-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NE 0
Q2 · 9:35NE Field goal
(9:35) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NE 3
Q2 · 6:12NYJ Field goal
(6:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NE 3
Q4 · 8:10NYJ Field goal
(8:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NYJ 9 — NE 3
Q4 · 1:57NYJ Touchdown
(1:57) 20-Bre.Hall left end for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NYJ 17 — NE 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Patriots
Offensive plays	64	58
Total yards	256 (edge)	119
Yards per play	4.0 (edge)	2.1
Expected points added / play	-0.23 (edge)	-0.56
Success rate	33% (edge)	19%
Dropback rate	33%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.52 (edge)	-0.75
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	3/15 (edge)	1/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	13 (edge)	6
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	7
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.56.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

12/30, 88 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-27.7 expected points added · -21.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Trevor SiemianQB

8/20, 70 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.0 expected points added · -14.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

37 att, 178 yds, 1 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Ezekiel ElliottRB

13 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

2/5 for 34 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jalen ReagorWR

1/5 for 33 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	2	0:56	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 23	4	4	1:37	Punt
3	NE	NE 39	4	-12	1:57	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 36	4	2	1:45	Punt
5	NE	NE 3	4	2	1:25	Punt
6	NYJ	NE 38	10	35	5:16	Field goal +3
7	NE	NE 25	5	1	1:17	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 14	4	2	1:06	Punt
9	NE	NE 38	10	65	5:09	Field goal +3
10	NYJ	NYJ 22	9	56	3:25	Field goal +3
11	NE	NE 25	5	4	1:27	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 36	10	33	4:19	Missed field goal
13	NE	NE 39	4	7	0:21	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 30	5	7	1:49	Punt
15	NE	NE 33	6	13	2:45	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	1	1:43	Punt
17	NE	NE 18	5	18	1:42	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 18	7	20	3:59	Punt
19	NE	NE 32	4	-4	1:36	Punt
20	NYJ	NYJ 45	4	1	1:39	Punt
21	NE	NE 19	5	26	2:30	Turnover on downs
22	NYJ	NE 45	8	30	4:09	Field goal +3
23	NE	NE 23	5	-7	2:10	Punt
24	NYJ	NE 46	4	6	2:21	Turnover on downs
25	NE	NE 40	2	-16	0:53	Interception
26	NE	NE 41	2	1	0:41	Interception
27	NYJ	NYJ 47	3	55	0:16	Touchdown +8
28	NE	NE 30	7	19	1:29	Turnover on downs
29	NYJ	NE 49	1	4	0:18	End of game

5 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 65 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	8/20	70	0	0	1	-11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Breece Hall	37	178	4.8	1	-1.5
Israel Abanikanda	3	6	2.0	0	-0.5
Trevor Siemian	2	1	0.5	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	2	5	34	28%	-0.2
Tyler Conklin	2	3	16	17%	-0.9
Breece Hall	2	2	12	11%	0.5
Xavier Gipson	1	5	4	28%	-3.9
Randall Cobb	1	1	4	6%	-0.6
Irvin Charles	0	1	0	6%	-1.5
Jason Brownlee	0	1	0	6%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Quincy Williams	4	4	0.0	0	0
Jamien Sherwood	3	4	0.0	0	0
C.J. Mosley	3	4	0.0	0	0
Ashtyn Davis	3	2	0.0	1	3
Ahmad Gardner	3	1	0.0	0	1
Michael Carter	2	1	0.0	0	2
Will McDonald	2	1	1.0	0	0
Quinnen Williams	2	1	2.0	0	0
Bruce Hector	1	1	0.0	0	0
Bryce Huff	2	0	2.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	12/30	88	0	2	7	-27.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	13	54	4.2	-1.3
Jalen Reagor	1	17	17.0	1.2
Bailey Zappe	3	13	4.3	-2.4
Kevin Harris	3	4	1.3	-1.6
Demario Douglas	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jalen Reagor	1	5	33	17%	2.9
Ezekiel Elliott	5	7	27	24%	-2.8
Demario Douglas	2	6	13	21%	-6.8
DeVante Parker	1	4	6	14%	-1.9
Mike Gesicki	1	3	5	10%	-1.9
Kevin Harris	1	1	4	3%	-0.1
Pharaoh Brown	1	3	0	10%	-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	7	0.5	0
Christian Barmore	5	4	0.0	0
Anfernee Jennings	3	4	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	5	2	0.0	0
Kyle Dugger	1	5	0.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	4	0	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	1	2	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	1	2	0.5	0
Jabrill Peppers	1	1	0.0	1
Chris Board	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2.5
Closing total: 28.5
NYJ moneyline: +120
NE moneyline: -142

Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 28.5; the game landed 20 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NYJ 10 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.