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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:38 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 17 at New England Patriots 3. Final.
Patriots -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 18
New York Jets 17, Patriots 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:10, 2nd and 9, on Tony Adams — 16.8 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:10 · 2nd and 9
Tony Adams
Jets
(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
U 28.5 ✓
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 17–3. Biggest swing: Q4 2:10, Jets +16.8% win probability on one snap.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalen ReagorPatriotsQ2 12:58(12:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 83-J.Reagor to NYJ 23 for 33 yards (4-D.Reed). PENALTY on NE-83-J.Reagor, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 23.
9.6pts
Breece HallPatriotsQ4 3:43(3:43) (Shotgun) 20-Bre.Hall right tackle to NE 40 for -3 yards (33-A.Jennings).
10.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 33% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 19% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — -0.23 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.56 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Patriots at 2 chunk plays.
(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
Swing −16.8 for PatriotsExpected points −3.42 for PatriotsThe model had Jets 3 points higher than the market did.play 150
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:10NYJ +17% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
4th · 3:43NYJ +11% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 20-Bre.Hall right tackle to NE 40 for -3 yards (33-A.Jennings).
2nd · 12:58NE +10% win prob(12:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 83-J.Reagor to NYJ 23 for 33 yards (4-D.Reed). PENALTY on NE-83-J.Reagor, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 23.
2nd · 0:26NYJ +9% win prob(:26) 9-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
4th · 12:23NYJ +9% win prob(12:23) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 86-P.Brown (21-A.Davis).
4th · 3:37NYJ +9% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at NE 24 for -16 yards (99-W.McDonald).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 40-yard field goal with 6:12 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:07Greg Zuerlein·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+33–0
2nd9:35Chad Ryland·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+33–3
2nd6:12Greg Zuerlein·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+36–3
4th8:10Greg Zuerlein·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+39–3
Jets ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Jets: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.56Patriots: −0.56 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.52Jets: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.75Patriots: −0.75 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Jets: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.16Patriots: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 64 snaps at a 33% dropback rate against Patriots’s 58 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Patriots 1.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.56.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 23.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 42.0% in week 5.
2.6 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 17.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −23.0 pts, is past their previous low of −10.6 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.7 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 17.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.7% in week 17 against 25.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Patriots23.8%
leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -23.0 pts, 21.9 points below their season mean of -1.1 pts and 2.7 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Zappe pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
Q4 2:10 · Patriots · 2nd & 9 at NE 42 · gained nothing · -3.42 EP · −15.6% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 56 yards from the NYJ 22 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.30
Success rate
29%
Yards
375
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.5665%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.5955%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.6772%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1017%
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.6613%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.230%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 27
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 28
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 41
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 38
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 3 to the Patriots 5
Jets3Patriots0
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Patriots 3
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 31
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Jets3Patriots3
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Jets 12
Jets6Patriots3
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Patriots 22
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Patriots 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 46
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 37
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 33 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 26
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 36
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 47
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 46
4th quarter42 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Patriots 45
Jets9Patriots3
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Patriots 15
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Patriots 37
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Patriots 42
Jets15Patriots3
Jets17Patriots3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 47 to midfield
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -2.5
Closing total
28.5
Jets moneyline
+120
Patriots moneyline
-142
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 28.5; the game landed 20 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-east; 0.46 in of precipitation; moderate snow.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Jets 10 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 3:00
NE +8% win prob
(3:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep middle intended for 83-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at NYJ 42. 21-A.Davis to NE 44 for 14 yards (88-M.Gesicki). FUMBLES (88-M.Gesicki), RECOVERED by NE-59-V.Lowe at NE 41. NE-59-V.Lowe was injured during the play.
1st · 11:11NYJ +8% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at NE 27 for -12 yards (95-Q.Williams).
