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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q4 2:10, 2nd and 9, on Tony Adams — 16.8 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 17–3. Biggest swing: Q4 2:10, Jets +16.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:10 · 2nd and 9
Tony Adams
Jets
(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 33% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 19% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — -0.23 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.56 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Patriots at 2 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Greg Zuerlein's 40-yard field goal with 6:12 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Greg Zuerlein40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+36–35 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryPatriots
Jets ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 64 snaps at a 33% dropback rate against Patriots’s 58 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Patriots 1.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.56.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 23.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.9 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points. · −2.6σ from their own normal
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −23.0 pts, is past their previous low of −10.6 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −2.7σ from their own normal
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.7% in week 17 against 25.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-23.0 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −21.9 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−2.66× that swing) · 63 snaps
Patriots-6.0 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 98%
Tendencies room →Jets23.4%off script — ran early · −37.4 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−2.62× that swing) · 47 early downs
Patriots56.1%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 41%
Tendencies room →Jets19.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Patriots10.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Jets25.0%right on their number · −6.7 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots66.7%leaned — went for it · +35.4 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 58%
Tendencies room →Jets7.7%leaned — sat back · −8.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Patriots47.6%leaned — sent pressure · +14.7 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Jets25.6%leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Patriots23.8%leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -23.0 pts, 21.9 points below their season mean of -1.1 pts and 2.7 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
12/30, 88 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-27.7 expected points added · -21.4% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
8/20, 70 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-11.0 expected points added · -14.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Breece Hall banked 7.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 29.0 | +7.6 | 89% | 81% | 11% | 0% | 37 car, 178 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.1 | −2.0 | 93% | 97% | 24% | 2% | 13 car, 54 yd · 5/7, 27 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −1.5 | 82% | 79% | 17% | 41% | 1 car, 17 yd · 1/5, 33 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.4 | −1.3 | 58% | 71% | 28% | 39% | 2/5, 34 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −2.5 | 77% | 86% | 17% | 6% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Featured Receiver | 3.3 | −5.3 | 96% | 100% | 21% | 15% | 1 car, 0 yd · 2/6, 13 yd |
| Trevor SiemianQB · Starter QB | 2.9 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 8/20, 70 yd · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Kevin HarrisRB | 1.8 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −3.5 | 49% | 49% | 14% | 26% | 1/4, 6 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −4.3 | 72% | 82% | 10% | 11% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 1.4 | −4.9 | 57% | 81% | 28% | 42% | 1/5, 4 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −2.4 | 58% | 49% | 10% | 6% | 1/3, 0 yd |
| Bailey ZappeQB · Starter QB | 0.8 | −9.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/30, 88 yd, 2 INT · 3 car, 13 yd |
| Israel AbanikandaRB | 0.6 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jason BrownleeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 83% | 95% | 6% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Irvin CharlesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.7 | 25% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
Q4 2:10 · Patriots · 2nd & 9 at NE 42 · gained nothing · -3.42 EP · −15.6% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 56 yards from the NYJ 22 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets3
Patriots0How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jets3Patriots3Jets6Patriots3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jets9Patriots3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Jets15Patriots3Jets17Patriots3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 8/20 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 37 | 178 | 4.8 | 1 | −1.5 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Trevor Siemian |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 28% | −0.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Mosley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 12/30 | 88 | 0 | 2 | 7 | −27.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_NYJ_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 28.5; the game landed 20 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.8 |
| −0.9 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 11% | +0.5 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 28% | −3.9 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Irvin Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Jason Brownlee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Will McDonald | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Hector | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Huff | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Kevin Harris | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Demario Douglas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 17% | +2.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 24% | −2.8 |
| Demario Douglas | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 21% | −6.8 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 14% | −1.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| Kevin Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −4.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Board | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
