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2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Gillette Stadium
17
3
New York Jets 17–3. Biggest swing: Q4 2:10, NYJ +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle intended for 81-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams (30-M.Carter) at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to NYJ 47 for no gain.
How the points landed
(2:07) 9-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NE 0(9:35) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NYJ 3 — NE 3(6:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NE 3(8:10) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NYJ 9 — NE 3(1:57) 20-Bre.Hall left end for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NYJ 17 — NE 3Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jets | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 64 | 58 |
| Total yards | 256 (edge) | 119 |
| Yards per play | 4.0 (edge) | 2.1 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.23 (edge) | -0.56 |
| Success rate | 33% (edge) | 19% |
| Dropback rate | 33% | 67% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.52 (edge) | -0.75 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.09 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Third downs | 3/15 (edge) | 1/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 (edge) | 6 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 7 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.56.
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
12/30, 88 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-27.7 expected points added · -21.4% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
8/20, 70 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-11.0 expected points added · -14.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | NE 25 | 5 | 2 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 2 | NYJ | NYJ 23 | 4 | 4 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 3 | NE | NE 39 | 4 | -12 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 4 | NYJ | NYJ 36 | 4 | 2 | 1:45 | Punt | |
| 5 | NE | NE 3 | 4 | 2 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 6 | NYJ | NE 38 | 10 | 35 | 5:16 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | NE | NE 25 | 5 | 1 | 1:17 | Punt | |
| 8 | NYJ | NYJ 14 | 4 | 2 | 1:06 | Punt | |
| 9 | NE | NE 38 | 10 | 65 | 5:09 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | NYJ | NYJ 22 | 9 | 56 | 3:25 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | NE | NE 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 12 | NYJ | NYJ 36 | 10 | 33 | 4:19 | Missed field goal | |
| 13 | NE | NE 39 | 4 | 7 | 0:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | NYJ | NYJ 30 | 5 | 7 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 15 | NE | NE 33 | 6 | 13 | 2:45 | Punt | |
| 16 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 4 | 1 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 17 | NE | NE 18 | 5 | 18 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 18 | NYJ | NYJ 18 | 7 | 20 | 3:59 | Punt | |
| 19 | NE | NE 32 | 4 | -4 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 20 | NYJ | NYJ 45 | 4 | 1 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 21 | NE | NE 19 | 5 | 26 | 2:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | NYJ | NE 45 | 8 | 30 | 4:09 | Field goal +3 | |
| 23 | NE | NE 23 | 5 | -7 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 24 | NYJ | NE 46 | 4 | 6 | 2:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | NE | NE 40 | 2 | -16 | 0:53 | Interception | |
| 26 | NE | NE 41 | 2 | 1 | 0:41 | Interception | |
| 27 | NYJ | NYJ 47 | 3 | 55 | 0:16 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 28 | NE | NE 30 | 7 | 19 | 1:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 29 | NYJ | NE 49 | 1 | 4 | 0:18 | End of game |
5 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 65 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 8/20 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 37 | 178 | 4.8 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 28% | -0.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 17% | -0.9 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Mosley | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 12/30 | 88 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -27.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 28.5; the game landed 20 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.5 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 28% | -3.9 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6% | -0.6 |
| Irvin Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.5 |
| Jason Brownlee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Will McDonald | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Hector | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Huff | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.3 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Kevin Harris | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Demario Douglas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 17% | 2.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 24% | -2.8 |
| Demario Douglas | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 21% | -6.8 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 14% | -1.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10% | -1.9 |
| Kevin Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | -4.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Board | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
