2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

New York GiantsWinner

PHI -4.5 upsetU 43 ✓Eagles closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:50, PHI +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:50PHI 0 — NYG 3PHI ball · 2nd & 9PHI 71%

(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to NYG 18 for 9 yards (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 17. 41-M.McFadden to NYG 27 for 10 yards (89-J.Stoll; 51-C.Jur

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:50PHI +15% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to NYG 18 for 9 yards (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 17. 41-M.McFadden to NYG 27 for 10 yards (89-J.Stoll; 51-C.Jurgens). PHI-11-A.Brown was injured during the play.
Q2 · 10:19NYG +11% win prob(10:19) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson pushed ob at PHI 2 for 26 yards (39-E.Ricks).
Q2 · 8:49PHI +8% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 15 for -14 yards (24-D.Belton).
Q2 · 1:53NYG +7% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:57NYG Field goal
(6:57) 21-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: PHI 0 — NYG 3
Q2 · 9:42NYG Touchdown
(9:42) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 0 — NYG 10
Q2 · 5:13NYG Touchdown
(5:13) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 0 — NYG 17
Q2 · 1:53NYG Touchdown
(1:53) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 0 — NYG 24
Q3 · 1:15PHI Field goal
(1:15) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 3 — NYG 24
Q4 · 10:21PHI Touchdown
(10:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 16-Q.Watkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 10 — NYG 24
Q4 · 3:42NYG Field goal
(3:42) 21-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: PHI 10 — NYG 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Giants
Offensive plays	65	66
Total yards	299	415 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.28	0.09 (edge)
Success rate	42%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.50	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	5/13	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Tyrod TaylorQB

23/32, 297 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

9.6 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Marcus MariotaQB

13/20, 148 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.8 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Kenneth GainwellRB

7 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

18 att, 46 yds, 2 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Quez WatkinsWR

8/11 for 93 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Wan'Dale RobinsonWR

5/6 for 85 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 25	6	15	1:52	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 17	6	13	2:08	Punt
3	NYG	NYG 27	9	67	4:06	Field goal +3
4	PHI	PHI 25	8	57	3:17	Fumble
5	NYG	NYG 27	4	9	1:59	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 14	7	33	2:32	Turnover on downs
7	NYG	PHI 48	10	53	4:28	Touchdown +7
8	PHI	PHI 25	5	-10	1:37	Punt
9	NYG	NYG 45	7	55	2:53	Touchdown +7
10	PHI	PHI 27	5	-2	2:12	Punt
11	NYG	NYG 27	5	73	1:09	Touchdown +7
12	PHI	PHI 25	4	2	0:19	Interception
13	NYG	NYG 36	4	0	0:23	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 20	1	0	0:05	Interception
15	NYG	PHI 12	1	0	0:05	Interception
16	PHI	PHI 20	3	9	0:55	End of half
17	PHI	PHI 23	9	38	3:27	Punt
18	NYG	NYG 3	10	48	5:30	Punt
19	PHI	PHI 16	13	66	4:52	Field goal +3
20	NYG	NYG 25	7	21	2:27	Punt
21	PHI	PHI 19	9	81	3:29	Touchdown +7
22	NYG	NYG 25	13	72	6:36	Field goal +3
23	PHI	PHI 25	3	3	0:11	Fumble
24	NYG	PHI 28	4	2	1:29	Missed field goal
25	PHI	PHI 35	4	9	1:59	End of game

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 81 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	13/20	148	1	1	3	-4.8
Jalen Hurts	7/16	55	0	1	2	-10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kenneth Gainwell	7	62	8.9	2.5
Marcus Mariota	6	46	7.7	4.3
Rashaad Penny	6	16	2.7	-2.0
Boston Scott	3	5	1.7	-1.6
Jalen Hurts	2	4	2.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Quez Watkins	8	11	93	1	33%	0.0
Britain Covey	3	5	35	0	15%	0.6
Olamide Zaccheaus	2	4	20	0	12%	-1.0
Grant Calcaterra	2	2	18	0	6%	1.1
Julio Jones	2	4	13	0	12%	-2.2
Jack Stoll	1	1	11	0	3%	2.1
A.J. Brown	1	1	9	0	3%	-5.1
Dallas Goedert	1	3	4	0	9%	-3.8
Kenneth Gainwell	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Boston Scott	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nicholas Morrow	6	4	0.0	0	1
Kevin Byard	7	2	0.0	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	3	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	2	3	0.0	0	0
Tristin McCollum	3	2	0.0	0	0
James Bradberry	3	1	0.0	0	1
Marlon Tuipulotu	2	1	1.0	0	0
Reed Blankenship	3	0	0.0	1	1
Jalen Carter	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kelee Ringo	3	0	1.0	0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	23/32	297	1	1	1	9.6
Tommy DeVito	2/2	14	0	0	1	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	18	46	2.6	2	-2.0
Tyrod Taylor	8	38	4.8	0	-1.0
Eric Gray	3	19	6.3	0	0.2
Sterling Shepard	1	6	6.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Wan'Dale Robinson	5	6	85	0	19%	6.9
Darius Slayton	5	7	62	1	22%	5.0
Saquon Barkley	2	2	51	0	6%	3.4
Darren Waller	5	6	45	0	19%	2.9
Isaiah Hodgins	3	3	36	0	9%	2.7
Sterling Shepard	3	5	18	0	16%	-5.7
Eric Gray	1	1	9	0	3%	-0.4
Jalin Hyatt	1	2	5	0	6%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Micah McFadden	7	2	0.0	0	2
Bobby Okereke	5	3	1.0	0	1
Tre Hawkins	5	1	0.0	0	0
Xavier McKinney	2	4	0.0	2	3
Dane Belton	4	0	1.0	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Azeez Ojulari	4	0	2.0	0	0
Nick McCloud	3	0	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Simmons	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kayvon Thibodeaux	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -4.5
Closing total: 43
PHI moneyline: -238
NYG moneyline: +190

Eagles closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: PHI 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Brian Daboll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.