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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q1 3:50, 2nd and 9, on A.J. Brown — 14.8 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:50 · 2nd and 9
A.J. Brown
Giants
(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to NYG 18 for 9 yards (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 17. 41-M.McFadden to NYG 27 for 10 yards (89-J.Stoll; 51-C.Jurgens). PHI-11-A.Brown was injured during the play.
New York Giants 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:50, Giants +14.8% win probability on one snap.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to NYG 18 for 9 yards (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 17. 41-M.McFadden to NYG 27 for 10 yards (89-J.Stoll; 51-C.Jur
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mason Crosby's 24-yard field goal with 6:57 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Mason Crosby24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+30–37 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryGiants
Giants ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Giants’s 66 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Giants 6.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected, +14.6 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.6 points clear of the next team along.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 66.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 17 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 39.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-3.1 ptsright on their number · −1.6 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 65 snaps
Giants14.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +16.4 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.84× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 90%
Tendencies room →Eagles66.7%leaned — passed early · +9.9 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 51 early downs
Giants55.8%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 46%
Tendencies room →Eagles27.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Giants24.4%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 146%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.2%.
Giants0.0%leaned — took the kick · −46.3 vs their 46.3%, and they swing ±39.0 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 91%
Tendencies room →Eagles31.7%leaned — sent pressure · +10.4 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Giants62.8%leaned — sent pressure · +19.6 vs their 43.2%, and they swing ±18.6 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 27%
Tendencies room →Eagles7.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Giants16.3%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.6 pts, 16.4 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.8 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
23/32, 297 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
9.6 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
13/20, 148 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.8 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected
Receiving · NYG
5/6 for 85 yds, 0 TD
19% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Saquon Barkley banked 6.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.7 | +6.6 | 70% | 56% | 6% | 8% | 18 car, 46 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 51 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.3 | +6.0 | 98% | 95% | 33% | 31% | 8/11, 93 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyrod TaylorQB · Starter QB | 17.7 | −1.8 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 297 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 38 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 17.2 | +6.6 | 78% | 73% | 22% | 21% | 5/7, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 13.5 | +4.6 | 69% | 66% | 19% | 21% | 5/6, 85 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 10.5 | +0.1 | 57% | — | 0% | — | 13/20, 148 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 46 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | +0.4 | 51% | 39% | 19% | 13% | 5/6, 45 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +1.4 | 79% | 71% | 9% | 9% | 3/3, 36 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | −1.4 | 54% | 51% | 15% | 15% | 3/5, 35 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 6.2 | +1.1 | 38% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 62 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −6.1 | 25% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 1 car, 6 yd · 3/5, 18 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.4 | 82% | 77% | 12% | 9% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 3.8 | +0.8 | 21% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 19 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.3 | 28% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.8 | 26% | 28% | 12% | 15% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.9 | 58% | 53% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Rashaad PennyRB | 1.6 | −1.3 | 31% | 26% | 0% | — | 6 car, 16 yd |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.4 | 13% | 12% | 6% | 17% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −2.9 | 35% | 35% | 9% | 9% | 1/3, 4 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB | 0.6 | −5.3 | 43% | — | 0% | — | 7/16, 55 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Tommy DeVitoQB | 0.6 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Boston ScottRB | 0.5 | −2.6 | 31% | 30% | 3% | 7% | 3 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jashaun CorbinRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ben VanSumerenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| A.J. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.1 | −1.5 | 18% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to NYG 18 for 9 yards (44-N.McCloud). FUMBLES (44-N.McCloud), RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 17. 41-M.McFadden to NYG 27 for 10 yards (89-J.Stoll; 51-C.Jurgens). PHI-11-A.Brown was injured during the play.
Q1 3:50 · Eagles · 2nd & 9 at NYG 27 · gained 9 · -5.13 EP · −17.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 81 yards from the PHI 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Giants3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles0Giants9Eagles0Giants10Eagles0Giants16Eagles0Giants17Eagles0Giants23Eagles0Giants24Eagles3Giants24Eagles9Giants24Eagles10Giants24Eagles10Giants27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/20 | 148 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −4.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7/16 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 | +4.3 |
| Rashaad Penny |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 8 | 11 | 93 | 1 | 33% | +0.0 |
| Britain Covey | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 15% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Morrow | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Cunningham |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 23/32 | 297 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +9.6 |
| Tommy DeVito | 2/2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −1.4 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_PHI_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 6 |
| 16 |
| 2.7 |
| 0 |
| −2.0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12% | −1.0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 12% | −2.2 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −5.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −3.8 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tristin McCollum | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Bradberry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Tuipulotu | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 2 | −2.0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Eric Gray | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 19% | +6.9 |
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 | 22% | +5.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 6% | +3.4 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 19% | +2.9 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 9% | +2.7 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 16% | −5.7 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah McFadden | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Hawkins | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Dane Belton | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick McCloud | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
