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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 6, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q4 15:00, 3rd and 4, on Diontae Johnson — 24.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Steelers +24.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 3rd and 4
Diontae Johnson
Steelers
(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.61 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Diontae Johnson's 71-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Diontae Johnson71-yd TD catch71-yard touchdown catchfrom Mason RudolphLead never changed again+714–75 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 61 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Ravens’s 56 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Ravens 2.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's pass rate over expected, −20.7 pts, is past their previous low of −15.7 pts in week 17 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 23.1% in week 17 against 8.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 42.3% in week 17 against 13.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-20.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.6 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 61 snaps
Ravens-6.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.5 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 84%
Tendencies room →Steelers28.3%leaned — ran early · −19.8 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 46 early downs
Ravens59.5%inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 42%
Tendencies room →Steelers8.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.3 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Ravens13.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.2%.
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 16.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 59%
Tendencies room →Steelers23.7%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Ravens26.1%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Steelers15.8%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Ravens17.4%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
PIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.7 pts, 14.6 points below their season mean of -6.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
18/20, 152 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.6 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
15/28, 146 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.7 expected points added · -13.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Diontae Johnson banked 11.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.3 | +1.3 | 60% | 39% | 25% | 0% | 26 car, 112 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 21 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.9 | +11.8 | 48% | 83% | 25% | 76% | 4/5, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/28, 146 yd, 1 TD · 8 car, 40 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.1 | +8.4 | 33% | 45% | 8% | 14% | 2/2, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | +2.4 | 100% | 100% | 19% | 18% | 5/5, 39 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 8.0 | −6.2 | 44% | 61% | 25% | 0% | 9 car, 33 yd · 5/5, 17 yd |
| Mason RudolphQB · Starter QB | 8.0 | +2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/20, 152 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 5.6 | −7.3 | 54% | 79% | 38% | 12% | 3/10, 26 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.4 | 70% | 61% | 15% | 17% | 3/4, 23 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.3 | 61% | 83% | 10% | 19% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB | 2.8 | −2.0 | 33% | 21% | 0% | — | 10 car, 48 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −1.7 | 75% | 84% | 12% | 24% | 1/3, 16 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB · Receiving Back | 2.4 | −0.4 | 37% | 17% | 10% | 0% | 2/2, 4 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.4 | 42% | 47% | 8% | 15% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | 0.0 | 27% | 26% | 0% | — | 1 car, 8 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −0.4 | 81% | 91% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 68% | 61% | 5% | 18% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Melvin GordonRB | -0.2 | −3.5 | 14% | 3% | 0% | — | 7 car, 18 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 15:00 · Steelers · 3rd & 4 at PIT 29 · gained 71 · +6.72 EP · +33.5% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 89 yards from the PIT 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers6
Ravens0Steelers7Ravens0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers7Ravens6Steelers7Ravens7How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers13Ravens7Steelers14Ravens7How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Steelers17Ravens7Steelers17Ravens10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 18/20 | 152 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 26 | 112 | 4.3 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Calvin Austin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 5 | 89 | 1 | 25% | +6.3 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Rowe | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Watt | 4 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Robinson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 15/28 | 146 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −4.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_PIT_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 34; the game landed 27 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −2.2 |
| +0.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 10% | +1.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 25% | −4.6 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| Allen Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Miles Killebrew | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Golden | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 | −6.6 |
| Tyler Huntley | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Melvin Gordon | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | −6.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 19% | +4.0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 8% | +5.0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 38% | −7.3 |
| Charlie Kolar | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12% | +0.2 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Del'Shawn Phillips | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Pierce | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arthur Maulet | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Moon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
