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2023 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 6, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh17
BY 7final margin
RavensBaltimore10
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 at Baltimore Ravens 10. Final.
Steelers -3 ✓U 34 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 18
Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Ravens 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 3rd and 4, on Diontae Johnson — 24.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 3rd and 4
Diontae Johnson
Steelers
(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Steelers +24.1% win probability on one snap.
24.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Isaiah LikelyRavensQ2 2:26(2:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.6pts
Mason RudolphRavensQ2 0:12(:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at BAL 42 for -8 yards (50-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (50-K.Van Noy), RECOVERED by BAL-96-B.Washington at BAL 37.
12.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.61 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.29 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Steelers151 of 162 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −24.1 for RavensExpected points −6.72 for RavensThe model had Ravens 14 points higher than the market did.play 113
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00BAL +24% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:12PIT +13% win prob(:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at BAL 42 for -8 yards (50-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (50-K.Van Noy), RECOVERED by BAL-96-B.Washington at BAL 37.
2nd · 2:26BAL +12% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:19PIT +9% win prob(7:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left guard to BAL 32 for 5 yards (25-E.Rowe; 95-K.Benton). FUMBLES (25-E.Rowe), RECOVERED by PIT-44-M.Golden at BAL 32.
2nd · 13:33PIT +8% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 33-M.Gordon right end to BAL 45 for no gain (93-M.Robinson). FUMBLES (93-M.Robinson), RECOVERED by PIT-99-L.Ogunjobi at BAL 45.
2nd · 0:43PIT +7% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at BAL 41 for -8 yards (24-J.Clowney). FUMBLES (24-J.Clowney) [24-J.Clowney], recovered by PIT-65-D.Moore at BAL 42.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Diontae Johnson's 71-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th3:17Chris Boswell·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+317–7
4th0:20Justin Tucker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.Ott+317–10
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers8–0Ravens
290Total yards225
4.8Yards per play4.0
49%Success rate38%
40%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays3
16First downs14
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers2
The read
Steelers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Steelers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.29Ravens: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Steelers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.61Ravens: −0.61 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 61 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Ravens’s 56 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Ravens 2.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, −20.7 pts, is past their previous low of −15.7 pts in week 17 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 23.1% in week 17 against 8.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 42.3% in week 17 against 13.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Ravens17.4%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.7 pts, 14.6 points below their season mean of -6.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%62 snaps
65Dan MooreT · Every snap100%62 snaps
61Mason ColeC · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%62 snaps
2Mason RudolphQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
78James DanielsG · Full-time98%61 snaps
14George PickensWR · Full-time81%50 snaps
11Allen RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation68%42 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation61%38 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation60%37 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Rotational48%30 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Rotational44%27 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Rotational37%23 snaps
19Calvin AustinWR · Rotational27%17 snaps
13Miles BoykinWR · Situational8%5 snaps
—Rodney WilliamsTE · Situational2%1 snap
74Spencer AndersonT · Situational2%1 snap
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Darius RushCBDeMarvin LealDEMinkah FitzpatrickFSBlake MartinezILBMitchell TrubiskyQBTrenton ThompsonSSDylan CookT
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Rudolph pass+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 15:00 · Steelers · 3rd & 4 at PIT 29 · gained 71 · +6.72 EP · +33.5% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 89 yards from the PIT 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
41%
Yards
513
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.3365%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1455%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0324%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.4442%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.2320%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 47
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 26
Steelers6Ravens0
Steelers7Ravens0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Ravens 6
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 28
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 44
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 45
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Ravens 33
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Ravens 47
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Steelers7Ravens6
Steelers7Ravens7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Steelers 25
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Ravens 33
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Ravens 47
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 24
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 45
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 26
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Steelers13Ravens7
Steelers14Ravens7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Steelers 47
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 27
Steelers17Ravens7
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 2
Steelers17Ravens10
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 9
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -3
Closing total
34
Steelers moneyline
-155
Ravens moneyline
+130
Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 34; the game landed 27 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 37°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the north-east; 0.51 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Steelers 6 days · Ravens 6 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 11:15PIT +7% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 30-J.Warren to BAL 32 for 1 yard (10-A.Maulet, 53-D.Phillips). FUMBLES (53-D.Phillips), touched at BAL 32, RECOVERED by BAL-10-A.Maulet at BAL 33.
3rd · 4:14BAL +6% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 15-N.Agholor to BAL 48 for 16 yards (93-M.Robinson). PIT-90-T.Watt was injured during the play.
