2023 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 6, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Baltimore Ravens

PIT -3 ✓U 34 ✓15 mph windSteelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, BAL +24% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 15:00PIT 13 — BAL 7PIT ball · 3rd & 4PIT 58%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 15:00BAL +24% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:12PIT +13% win prob(:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at BAL 42 for -8 yards (50-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (50-K.Van Noy), RECOVERED by BAL-96-B.Washington at BAL 37.
Q2 · 2:26BAL +12% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:19PIT +9% win prob(7:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left guard to BAL 32 for 5 yards (25-E.Rowe; 95-K.Benton). FUMBLES (25-E.Rowe), RECOVERED by PIT-44-M.Golden at BAL 32.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:41PIT Touchdown
(2:41) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 0
Q2 · 2:26BAL Touchdown
(2:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 7
Q4 · 15:00PIT Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 14 — BAL 7
Q4 · 3:17PIT Field goal
(3:17) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 7
Q4 · 0:20BAL Field goal
(:20) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Ravens
Offensive plays	61	56
Total yards	290 (edge)	225
Yards per play	4.8 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	-0.07 (edge)	-0.29
Success rate	49% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	38%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.61
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	2

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Mason RudolphQB

18/20, 152 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.6 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

15/28, 146 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.7 expected points added · -13.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

26 att, 112 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

10 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-6.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

4/5 for 89 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Nelson AgholorWR

5/5 for 39 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	8	22	3:23	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 19	4	7	1:29	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 24	13	76	7:32	Touchdown +7
4	BAL	BAL 25	5	3	1:02	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 37	4	7	1:42	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 35	3	10	1:24	Fumble
7	PIT	BAL 45	4	18	2:26	Fumble
8	BAL	BAL 33	7	14	3:36	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 10	4	9	2:19	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 29	7	71	2:48	Touchdown +7
11	PIT	PIT 40	9	23	2:14	Fumble
12	BAL	BAL 37	1	0	0:05	End of half
13	BAL	BAL 25	5	-1	1:47	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 36	5	15	2:52	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 21	4	-5	2:03	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 34	5	2	2:46	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 18	8	31	2:42	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 11	7	89	3:01	Touchdown +7
19	BAL	BAL 25	11	26	4:46	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 43	4	4	2:22	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 20	2	12	0:27	Fumble
22	PIT	BAL 32	9	25	4:01	Field goal +3
23	BAL	BAL 25	13	57	2:57	Field goal +3
24	PIT	BAL 45	2	0	0:16	End of game

5 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 89 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mason Rudolph	18/20	152	1	0	3	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	26	112	4.3	1	1.3
Jaylen Warren	9	33	3.7	0	-2.8
Calvin Austin	1	8	8.0	0	0.6
George Pickens	1	3	3.0	0	0.6
Mason Rudolph	2	-1	-0.5	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	4	5	89	1	25%	6.3
Najee Harris	5	5	21	0	25%	0.8
Pat Freiermuth	2	2	21	0	10%	1.7
Jaylen Warren	5	5	17	0	25%	-4.6
Connor Heyward	2	2	4	0	10%	-0.3
Allen Robinson	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Rowe	9	2	0.0	1
T.J. Watt	4	2	2.0	0
Mark Robinson	4	1	1.0	0
Miles Killebrew	3	1	0.0	0
Myles Jack	2	1	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	1	0.0	0
Keeanu Benton	1	2	0.0	0
Markus Golden	1	1	1.0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	0	0.0	0
Chandon Sullivan	1	0	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	15/28	146	1	0	4	-4.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Gus Edwards	10	48	4.8	-6.6
Tyler Huntley	8	40	5.0	1.3
Melvin Gordon	7	18	2.6	-6.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	5	5	39	0	19%	4.0
Isaiah Likely	2	2	31	1	8%	5.0
Justice Hill	3	10	26	0	38%	-7.3
Charlie Kolar	3	4	23	0	15%	1.1
Laquon Treadwell	1	3	16	0	12%	0.2
Tylan Wallace	1	2	11	0	8%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Del'Shawn Phillips	6	5	0.0	0
Trenton Simpson	6	1	1.0	0
Marcus Williams	1	6	0.0	1
Michael Pierce	3	3	0.0	0
Tavius Robinson	2	3	0.0	0
Arthur Maulet	4	1	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	3	2	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	3	1	0.0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	1	3	0.0	0
Jeremiah Moon	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3
Closing total: 34
PIT moneyline: -155
BAL moneyline: +130

Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 34; the game landed 27 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: PIT 6 days · BAL 6 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.