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2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · State Farm Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

21

Arizona Cardinals

20

SEA -2.5 no coverU 48 ✓Dome

Seattle Seahawks 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, SEA +45% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ARI ↑SEA ↓
Q4 · 0:01SEA 21 — ARI 20ARI ball · 3rd & 13SEA 55%

(:01) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:01SEA +45% win prob(:01) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
  2. Q4 · 9:52ARI +24% win prob(9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 0:46ARI +22% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 40 for 12 yards (30-M.Jackson).
  4. Q4 · 0:10SEA +17% win prob(:10) 6-J.Conner left end to SEA 33 for -1 yards (99-L.Williams).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:08SEA Field goal

    (5:08) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 3 — ARI 0
  2. Q2 · 11:10ARI Field goal

    (11:10) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: SEA 3 — ARI 3
  3. Q2 · 7:11SEA Touchdown

    (7:11) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-W.Dissly for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 10 — ARI 3
  4. Q2 · 2:00ARI Field goal

    (2:00) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: SEA 10 — ARI 6
  5. Q2 · 0:02SEA Field goal

    (:02) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 13 — ARI 6
  6. Q3 · 10:40ARI Touchdown

    (10:40) 6-J.Conner left tackle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 13 — ARI 13
  7. Q4 · 9:52ARI Touchdown

    (9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 13 — ARI 20
  8. Q4 · 2:00SEA Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: SEA 21 — ARI 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSeahawksCardinals
Offensive plays5469
Total yards329466 (edge)
Yards per play6.16.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.110.23 (edge)
Success rate48% (edge)43%
Dropback rate57%46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.200.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.01 (edge)-0.02
Third downs6/12 (edge)5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)912 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1824 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

22/30, 262 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.7 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

16/28, 189 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · -10.0% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

27 att, 150 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

17 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Michael WilsonWR

6/6 for 95 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

2/4 for 71 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 1810354:06Punt
2SEASEA 711785:49Field goal +3
3ARIARI 25592:06Punt
4SEASEA 207101:54Punt
5ARIARI 169794:57Field goal +3
6SEASEA 259754:02Touchdown +7
7ARIARI 2511685:09Field goal +3
8SEASEA 2512561:57Field goal +3
9SEASEA 256202:13Punt
10ARIARI 135872:14Touchdown +7
11SEASEA 258104:01Punt
12ARIARI 226302:55Punt
13SEASEA 2481:31Punt
14ARIARI 3913667:18Touchdown +7
15SEASEA 25531:28Punt
16ARIARI 2613505:24Missed field goal
17SEASEA 335691:02Touchdown +8
18ARIARI 2510421:54Missed field goal

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 87 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith16/281892006.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker17784.60-1.9
Zach Charbonnet5326.401.2
Geno Smith3289.300.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Lockett2471115%6.6
Will Dissly3346112%4.5
Zach Charbonnet222808%1.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba3514019%0.2
DK Metcalf1610023%-4.2
Jake Bobo11904%0.9
Colby Parkinson348015%-1.9
Kenneth Walker11304%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner3110.000
Devon Witherspoon640.000
Leonard Williams250.000
Julian Love430.000
Quandre Diggs420.000
Michael Jackson320.000
Dre'Mont Jones230.000
Darrell Taylor221.000
Cameron Young130.001
Devin Bush310.000

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray22/3026210114.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner271505.612.1
Kyler Murray5336.60-2.0
Michael Carter4174.30-1.3
Rondale Moore155.002.1
Clayton Tune111.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Wilson6695021%8.0
James Conner4454014%3.9
Trey McBride3634121%3.5
Elijah Higgins223207%1.9
Rondale Moore4531017%1.6
Greg Dortch2414014%-2.3
Michael Carter12207%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Budda Baker520.000
Naquan Jones230.000
B.J. Ojulari410.000
Krys Barnes320.001
Starling Thomas310.001
Andre Chachere310.000
Owen Pappoe300.001
Zaven Collins100.000
Jalen Thompson100.001
Dennis Gardeck100.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Closing total
48
SEA moneyline
-155
ARI moneyline
+130

Seahawks closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 41 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
SEA 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Jonathan Gannon

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.