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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Seahawks156 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:01) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Swing −45.2 for CardinalsExpected points −2.12 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 6 points higher than the market did.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01SEA +45% win prob(:01) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
4th · 9:52ARI +24% win prob(9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:46ARI +22% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 40 for 12 yards (30-M.Jackson).
4th · 0:10SEA +17% win prob(:10) 6-J.Conner left end to SEA 33 for -1 yards (99-L.Williams).
4th · 1:54ARI +15% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 16-T.Lockett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 2:00ARI +14% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Lockett's 34-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:08Jason Myers·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–0
2nd11:10Matt Prater·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+33–3
4th2:00Tyler Lockett·34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno Smithfrom Geno Smith · two-point goodLead never changed again+821–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Seahawks3–4Cardinals
329Total yards466
6.1Yards per play6.8
48%Success rate43%
50%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays12
18First downs24
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Cardinals ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.23Cardinals: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Seahawks: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.53Cardinals: +0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Seahawks: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 54 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 69 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Cardinals 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's play-action rate, 43.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 36.4% in week 1.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 17.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 3.7% in week 15.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, −9.8 pts, is past their previous low of −7.5 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 17.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, −14.1 pts, is past their previous low of −11.9 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
ARI's blitz rate sent turned over: 16.0% in week 17 against 35.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.0% in week 17 against 51.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cardinals0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.93× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteARI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 43.8%, 22.2 points above their season mean of 21.5% and 2.2 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%55 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%55 snaps
78Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%55 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%55 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Full-time91%50 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time84%46 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Heavy rotation78%43 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation78%43 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation65%36 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
9Kenneth WalkerRB · Rotational49%27 snaps
89Will DisslyTE · Rotational36%20 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Rotational25%14 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Situational15%8 snaps
38Brady RussellTE · Situational9%5 snaps
74Jake CurhanT · Situational9%5 snaps
83Dareke YoungWR · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mario EdwardsDEPatrick O'ConnellILBJarran ReedNTKenny McIntoshRBAbraham LucasTRaiqwon O'NealTJason PetersT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Prater−51% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q4 0:01 · Cardinals · 3rd & 13 at SEA 33 · gained nothing · -2.12 EP · −51.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 87 yards from the ARI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
795
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1151%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0658%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.3433%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1633%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1638%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.7133%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Seahawks 47
Seahawks3Cardinals0
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Cardinals 14
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 30
The period ended3 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 24
2nd quarter47 plays
Seahawks3Cardinals3
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Seahawks 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldSix linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Seahawks9Cardinals3
Seahawks10Cardinals3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 19
Seahawks10Cardinals6
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 14
Seahawks13Cardinals6
Field goal16 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 11
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Seahawks13Cardinals12
Seahawks13Cardinals13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Seahawks 29
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 36
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Seahawks 48
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 2 to the Seahawks 10
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Seahawks 45
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne kicker, one punter, one quarterback, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, five linebackers and two backsRoute runGoCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Seahawks13Cardinals19
Seahawks13Cardinals20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Seahawks 8
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
The period ended16 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Seahawks 24
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Seahawks19Cardinals20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Seahawks21Cardinals20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Cardinals 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
