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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q4 0:01, 3rd and 13, on Matt Prater — 45.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 21–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Seahawks +45.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 3rd and 13
Matt Prater
Seahawks
(:01) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
45.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 9 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at +0.20 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Cardinals at 5 of 13 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(:01) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Lockett's 34-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Tyler Lockett34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno Smith · two-point goodLead never changed again+821–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Cardinals ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 54 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 69 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Cardinals 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's play-action rate, 43.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
ARI's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
SEA's pass rate over expected, −9.8 pts, is past their previous low of −7.5 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
ARI's pass rate over expected, −14.1 pts, is past their previous low of −11.9 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
ARI's blitz rate sent turned over: 16.0% in week 17 against 35.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.0% in week 17 against 51.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-9.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −9.8 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−2.18× that swing) · 53 snaps
Cardinals-14.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.7 vs their -6.4 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 82%
Tendencies room →Seahawks51.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 41 early downs
Cardinals42.6%inside their normal wobble · −10.8 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Seahawks6.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −15.1 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Cardinals43.8%off script — faked the run · +22.2 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+2.25× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.7 vs their 25.7%, and they swing ±32.8 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cardinals40.0%right on their number · −7.9 vs their 47.9%, and they swing ±25.3 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 50%
Tendencies room →Seahawks31.3%inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cardinals35.5%leaned — sent pressure · +15.7 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Seahawks12.5%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cardinals0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.93× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
ARI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 43.8%, 22.2 points above their season mean of 21.5% and 2.2 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
22/30, 262 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
14.7 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
16/28, 189 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.7 expected points added · -10.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
James Conner banked 9.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 30.4 | +9.4 | 74% | 63% | 14% | 0% | 27 car, 150 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 54 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 20.4 | +6.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/28, 189 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 28 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 17.8 | −1.8 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 262 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 33 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.1 | +7.6 | 78% | 84% | 15% | 37% | 2/4, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 15.5 | +5.2 | 83% | 84% | 21% | 40% | 6/6, 95 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.6 | +8.0 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 17% | 3/3, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Trey McBrideTE · Featured Receiver | 12.4 | −1.5 | 97% | 94% | 21% | 31% | 3/6, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.1 | −0.2 | 49% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 17 car, 78 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 8.0 | +2.1 | 53% | 74% | 8% | 3% | 5 car, 32 yd · 2/2, 28 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | −0.6 | 57% | 66% | 17% | 6% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/5, 31 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +1.4 | 39% | 38% | 7% | 13% | 2/2, 32 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Featured Receiver | 4.4 | −3.1 | 65% | 77% | 19% | 10% | 3/5, 14 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −1.9 | 78% | 77% | 15% | 6% | 3/4, 8 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −2.7 | 67% | 75% | 14% | 17% | 2/4, 14 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 2.9 | −2.5 | 13% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 4 car, 17 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 2.0 | −8.0 | 84% | 90% | 23% | 29% | 1/6, 10 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 25% | 29% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Clayton TuneQB | 0.1 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:01) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q4 0:01 · Cardinals · 3rd & 13 at SEA 33 · gained nothing · -2.12 EP · −51.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 87 yards from the ARI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks3
Cardinals0Seahawks3Cardinals3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Seahawks9Cardinals3Seahawks10Cardinals3Seahawks10Cardinals6Seahawks13Cardinals6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Seahawks13Cardinals12Seahawks13Cardinals13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks13Cardinals19Seahawks13Cardinals20How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Seahawks19Cardinals20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks21Cardinals20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/28 | 189 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Geno Smith |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 71 | 1 | 15% | +6.6 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 3 | 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/30 | 262 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +14.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_SEA_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 41 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 28 |
| 9.3 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| +4.5 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 8% | +1.7 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 19% | +0.2 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 23% | −4.2 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 15% | −1.9 |
| Kenneth Walker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Julian Love | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Taylor | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Young | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 27 | 150 | 5.6 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 6 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 21% | +8.0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 14% | +3.9 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 6 | 34 | 1 | 21% | +3.5 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 7% | +1.9 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 17% | +1.6 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 14% | −2.3 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budda Baker | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naquan Jones | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Ojulari | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Starling Thomas | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Chachere | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Owen Pappoe | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaven Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
