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2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay9
BY 9final margin
PanthersCarolina0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 at Carolina Panthers 0. Final.
Buccaneers -5 ✓U 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9, Panthers 0 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:25, 1st and 15, on Bryce Young — 9.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:25 · 1st and 15
Bryce Young
Buccaneers
(6:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 43 for -10 yards (9-J.Tryon). FUMBLES (9-J.Tryon), touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by TB-96-G.Gaines at TB 43.
15.7 mph wind
Buccaneers closed -5 and covered, winning by 9.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9–0. Biggest swing: Q4 6:25, Buccaneers +9.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adam ThielenPanthersQ3 2:23(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to TB 30 for 8 yards (29-C.Izien). TB-94-C.Kancey was injured during the play. TB-54-L.David was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
7.5pts
Matthew WrightBuccaneersQ3 0:04(:04) 16-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
6.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.18 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Buccaneers141 of 154 plays carry both curves
(6:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 43 for -10 yards (9-J.Tryon). FUMBLES (9-J.Tryon), touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by TB-96-G.Gaines at TB 43.
Swing −9.5 for PanthersExpected points −5.47 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:25TB +9% win prob(6:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 43 for -10 yards (9-J.Tryon). FUMBLES (9-J.Tryon), touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by TB-96-G.Gaines at TB 43.
3rd · 2:23CAR +7% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to TB 30 for 8 yards (29-C.Izien). TB-94-C.Kancey was injured during the play. TB-54-L.David was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
3rd · 0:04TB +6% win prob(:04) 16-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
3rd · 0:45TB +6% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 34 for -9 yards (31-A.Winfield).
1st · 0:26TB +5% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 30 for -7 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos).
1st · 0:18CAR +5% win prob(:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to CAR 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-19-D.Moore.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 36-yard field goal with 4:17 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd4:17Chase McLaughlin·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+33–0
2nd0:04Chase McLaughlin·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+36–0
4th10:22Chase McLaughlin·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+39–0
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Buccaneers5–2Panthers
230Total yards199
3.8Yards per play4.0
41%Success rate26%
40%Third-down rate25%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays6
14First downs11
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Buccaneers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.31Panthers: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Buccaneers: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.51Panthers: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Buccaneers: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.14Panthers: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 61 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Panthers’s 50 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Panthers 0.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's play-action rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 21 team-games charted in week 18 — 14.3 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
CAR's pass rate over expected, −21.4 pts, is past their previous low of −18.7 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 17.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 17 against 21.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Panthers16.2%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -21.4 pts, 15.9 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.9 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young sacked−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:45) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 34 for -9 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q3 0:45 · Panthers · 3rd & 5 at TB 25 · lost 9 · -2.59 EP · −12.9% win probability
139 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 69 yards from the CAR 30 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
-0.20
Success rate
31%
Yards
427
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1781%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.4359%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.0629%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.047%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 47
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 43
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 39
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 37
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Buccaneers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 29
Buccaneers3Panthers0
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Panthers 18
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 30
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 21
Buccaneers6Panthers0
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Panthers 33
3rd quarter30 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 49
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
No good11 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Buccaneers 25
4th quarter36 plays
Buccaneers9Panthers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Panthers 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
The period ended17 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Panthers 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
