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2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

9

Carolina Panthers

0

TB -5 ✓U 36.5 ✓19 mph wind

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9–0. Biggest swing: Q4 6:25, TB +9% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 6:25TB 9 — CAR 0CAR ball · 1st & 15TB 87%

(6:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 43 for -10 yards (9-J.Tryon). FUMBLES (9-J.Tryon), touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by TB-96-G.Gaines at TB 43.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 6:25TB +9% win prob(6:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 43 for -10 yards (9-J.Tryon). FUMBLES (9-J.Tryon), touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by TB-96-G.Gaines at TB 43.
  2. Q3 · 2:23CAR +7% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to TB 30 for 8 yards (29-C.Izien). TB-94-C.Kancey was injured during the play. TB-54-L.David was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
  3. Q3 · 0:04TB +6% win prob(:04) 16-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
  4. Q3 · 0:45TB +6% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 34 for -9 yards (31-A.Winfield).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 4:17TB Field goal

    (4:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — CAR 0
  2. Q2 · 0:04TB Field goal

    (:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 6 — CAR 0
  3. Q4 · 10:22TB Field goal

    (10:22) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 9 — CAR 0

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersPanthers
Offensive plays6150
Total yards230 (edge)199
Yards per play3.84.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.09 (edge)-0.31
Success rate41% (edge)26%
Dropback rate61%46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.18 (edge)-0.51
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.03 (edge)-0.14
Third downs6/15 (edge)3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps14 (edge)11
Sacks taken33
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

20/32, 137 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.0 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

11/18, 94 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.8 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

23 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

19 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/7 for 51 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. CharkWR

2/4 for 46 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 2510283:20Punt
2CARCAR 256102:50Punt
3TBTB 226173:09Punt
4CARCAR 206173:07Punt
5TBTB 24692:27Punt
6CARCAR 305642:49Defensive touchdown
7TBTB 20471:30Punt
8CARCAR 21481:35Punt
9TBTB 298535:00Field goal +3
10CARCAR 23572:00Punt
11TBTB 26400:21Punt
12CARCAR 20410:41Punt
13TBTB 449171:11Field goal +3
14CARCAR 1510345:40Punt
15TBTB 86163:25Punt
16CARCAR 4611205:55Missed field goal
17TBTB 429374:42Field goal +3
18CARCAR 259383:59Fumble
19TBTB 4312466:19End of game

3 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 64 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a defensive touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield20/32137003-8.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White19753.90-0.9
Chase Edmonds4276.801.5
Baker Mayfield571.40-2.5
Chris Godwin144.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Godwin6751023%1.6
Cade Otton2330010%2.2
Mike Evans3822026%-4.1
Rachaad White4418013%0.5
Trey Palmer2610019%-2.9
David Moore11803%0.4
Deven Thompkins11103%-0.5
Chase Edmonds11-303%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David460.000
YaYa Diaby321.000
Antoine Winfield411.000
Logan Hall310.000
Ryan Neal400.000
Carlton Davis130.000
Joe Tryon121.000
Jamel Dean210.000
Devin White300.000
Zyon McCollum200.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young11/1894003-5.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard23833.60-3.8
Bryce Young22412.001.5
Miles Sanders3186.000.0
Raheem Blackshear166.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Chark2446022%-4.4
Adam Thielen2312017%2.5
Tommy Tremble2211011%-0.4
Chuba Hubbard229011%0.6
Ihmir Smith-Marsette126011%0.9
Ian Thomas125011%-1.3
Terrace Marshall11506%0.4
Stephen Sullivan020011%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Donte Jackson610.000
Derrick Brown511.001
Frankie Luvu330.000
Jaycee Horn410.003
Yetur Gross-Matos311.000
Deion Jones310.002
Kamu Grugier-Hill130.000
Shy Tuttle210.000
LaBryan Ray210.000
DeShawn Williams120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -5
Closing total
36.5
TB moneyline
-245
CAR moneyline
+200

Buccaneers closed -5 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 9 — under by 27.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 19 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
TB 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Chris Tabor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.