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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 7, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 18
It turned at Q4 6:25, 1st and 15, on Bryce Young — 9.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9–0. Biggest swing: Q4 6:25, Buccaneers +9.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:25 · 1st and 15
Bryce Young
Buccaneers
(6:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 43 for -10 yards (9-J.Tryon). FUMBLES (9-J.Tryon), touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by TB-96-G.Gaines at TB 43.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.18 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(6:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 43 for -10 yards (9-J.Tryon). FUMBLES (9-J.Tryon), touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by TB-96-G.Gaines at TB 43.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chase McLaughlin's 36-yard field goal with 4:17 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Chase McLaughlin36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+33–03 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Buccaneers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 61 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Panthers’s 50 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Panthers 0.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's play-action rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 21 team-games charted in week 18 — 14.3 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
CAR's pass rate over expected, −21.4 pts, is past their previous low of −18.7 pts in week 15 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 17 against 21.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers0.2 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 61 snaps
Panthers-21.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −15.9 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.86× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 83%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers52.2%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 46 early downs
Panthers41.7%leaned — ran early · −13.3 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 47%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers21.6%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Panthers4.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.2 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −28.6 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers50.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±22.1 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 76%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers47.8%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Panthers13.5%leaned — sat back · −17.4 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers21.7%leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Panthers16.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
CAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -21.4 pts, 15.9 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.9 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
20/32, 137 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.0 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
11/18, 94 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.8 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chris Godwin banked 1.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.3 | −0.9 | 74% | 70% | 13% | 2% | 19 car, 75 yd · 4/4, 18 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 11.5 | +1.1 | 77% | 86% | 23% | 15% | 1 car, 4 yd · 6/7, 51 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.2 | −2.7 | 81% | 83% | 11% | 0% | 23 car, 83 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 6.2 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/32, 137 yd · 5 car, 7 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.2 | −5.2 | 86% | 95% | 26% | 49% | 3/8, 22 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.9 | 94% | 100% | 10% | 4% | 2/3, 30 yd |
| D.J. CharkWR · Featured Receiver | 4.6 | −0.9 | 65% | 91% | 22% | 59% | 2/4, 46 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 4.2 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/18, 94 yd · 2 car, 24 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 3.4 | −0.3 | 26% | 30% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 27 yd · 1/1, -3 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | 0.0 | 92% | 87% | 17% | 13% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.5 | 85% | 70% | 11% | 1% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Featured Receiver | 3.0 | −6.4 | 45% | 70% | 19% | 34% | 2/6, 10 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 1.8 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.6 | 26% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.8 | 17% | 35% | 11% | 0% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 92% | 83% | 6% | 5% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.2 | 37% | 13% | 11% | 27% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.1 | 12% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.6 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:45) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at TB 34 for -9 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q3 0:45 · Panthers · 3rd & 5 at TB 25 · lost 9 · -2.59 EP · −12.9% win probability
139 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 69 yards from the CAR 30 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers3
Panthers0Buccaneers6Panthers0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Buccaneers9Panthers0How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/32 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −8.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Baker Mayfield |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 23% | +1.6 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 11/18 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_18_TB_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 9 — under by 27.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 15.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 5 |
| 7 |
| 1.4 |
| 0 |
| −2.5 |
| Chris Godwin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| +2.2 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 26% | −4.1 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13% | +0.5 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 19% | −2.9 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Logan Hall | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Chark | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 22% | −4.4 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 17% | +2.5 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 11% | −0.4 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 11% | +0.6 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11% | −1.3 |
| Terrace Marshall | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Jackson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaBryan Ray | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
