2023 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 13, 2024 · NRG Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Houston TexansWinner

CLE -2.5 upsetO 45 ✓DomeBrowns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 45–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 6:21, CLE +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:21CLE 14 — HOU 30CLE ball · 1st & 10HOU 67%

(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [95-D.Barnett] at HOU 18. 21-S.Nelson for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:21CLE +23% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [95-D.Barnett] at HOU 18. 21-S.Nelson for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:13HOU +20% win prob(12:13) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 9-B.Jordan for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:11HOU +11% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 88-H.Bryant to HOU 28 for 47 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
Q1 · 5:29HOU +11% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 85-D.Njoku to HOU 30 for 45 yards (21-S.Nelson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:32HOU Field goal
(5:32) 15-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: CLE 0 — HOU 3
Q1 · 2:12CLE Touchdown
(2:12) 53-N.Harris and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — HOU 3
Q1 · 0:18HOU Touchdown
(:18) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — HOU 10
Q2 · 12:23CLE Touchdown
(12:23) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 27-K.Hunt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — HOU 10
Q2 · 12:13HOU Touchdown
(12:13) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 9-B.Jordan for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — HOU 17
Q2 · 1:19HOU Touchdown
(1:19) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 86-D.Schultz for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — HOU 24
Q3 · 6:21HOU Touchdown
(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [95-D.Barnett] at HOU 18. 21-S.Nelson for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — HOU 31
Q3 · 4:13HOU Touchdown
(4:13) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris at CLE 36. 48-C.Harris for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — HOU 38
Q4 · 13:33HOU Touchdown
(13:33) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — HOU 45

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Texans
Offensive plays	70	41
Total yards	324	360 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	8.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.31	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	39% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	74%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	0.60 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.16 (edge)
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	2/7
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Joe FlaccoQB

34/46, 307 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-17.8 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

16/21, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.5 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

13 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

8 att, 26 yds, 1 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

6/7 for 96 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

7/11 for 93 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	6	6	2:35	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 17	6	26	2:25	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 8	4	5	1:37	Punt
4	HOU	CLE 45	7	43	2:54	Field goal +3
5	CLE	CLE 25	8	75	3:20	Touchdown +7
6	HOU	HOU 25	6	75	1:58	Touchdown +7
7	CLE	CLE 25	8	75	2:53	Touchdown +7
8	HOU	HOU 24	3	76	0:18	Touchdown +7
9	CLE	CLE 25	5	-12	1:43	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 44	4	-3	1:35	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 10	6	20	2:58	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 29	9	69	4:33	Touchdown +7
13	CLE	CLE 25	4	10	1:11	End of half
14	HOU	HOU 25	7	17	3:33	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 18	8	58	5:22	Defensive touchdown
16	CLE	CLE 25	5	8	1:59	Defensive touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 25	11	25	2:39	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	50	7	50	3:00	Touchdown +7
19	CLE	CLE 25	8	21	4:05	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	CLE 46	4	7	2:25	Punt
21	CLE	CLE 20	11	33	5:04	Turnover on downs
22	HOU	HOU 47	3	0	1:53	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 76 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	34/46	307	1	2	4	-17.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	8	26	3.3	1	-0.8
Jerome Ford	9	17	1.9	0	-4.8
Joe Flacco	3	13	4.3	0	1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Njoku	7	11	93	0	26%	1.9
Harrison Bryant	4	6	65	0	14%	-2.3
Amari Cooper	4	5	59	0	12%	3.9
David Bell	8	8	54	0	19%	3.4
Jerome Ford	4	4	15	0	9%	-0.9
Elijah Moore	2	2	12	0	5%	0.1
Kareem Hunt	5	6	9	1	14%	-3.9
Marquise Goodwin	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	7	1	0
Greg Newsome	4	0	1
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	2	0
Juan Thornhill	3	0	1
Sione Takitaki	1	2	0
D'Anthony Bell	1	1	0
Denzel Ward	2	0	1
Shelby Harris	1	1	0
Tony Fields	1	0	0
Martin Emerson	1	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	16/21	274	3	0	0	14.5
Davis Mills	1/1	6	0	0	0	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	13	66	5.1	1	-1.1
John Metchie	1	9	9.0	0	0.7
Nico Collins	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
C.J. Stroud	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6
Dameon Pierce	3	0	0.0	0	-2.0
Davis Mills	3	-4	-1.3	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	6	7	96	1	32%	6.3
Brevin Jordan	1	1	76	1	5%	5.7
John Metchie	3	3	44	0	14%	1.8
Dalton Schultz	1	2	37	1	9%	4.3
Xavier Hutchinson	2	2	12	0	9%	0.0
Robert Woods	1	2	11	0	9%	-0.7
Devin Singletary	3	3	4	0	14%	-1.8
Noah Brown	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.8
Andrew Beck	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Desmond King	7	5	0.0	0	0
Blake Cashman	4	4	0.0	0	0
Christian Harris	6	1	1.0	1	1
DeAndre Houston-Carson	5	1	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	4	1	0.0	1	3
Khalil Davis	1	3	0.0	0	0
D'Angelo Ross	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kris Boyd	1	2	0.0	0	0
Derek Barnett	1	1	1.0	0	0
Jalen Pitre	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2.5
Closing total: 45
CLE moneyline: -148
HOU moneyline: +124

Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 59 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CLE 6 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs DeMeco Ryans