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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 13, 2024 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Wild Card
It turned at Q3 6:21, 1st and 10, on Steven Nelson — 22.7 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 45–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 6:21, Texans +22.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:21 · 1st and 10
Steven Nelson
Texans
(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [95-D.Barnett] at HOU 18. 21-S.Nelson for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.60 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Texans at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [95-D.Barnett] at HOU 18. 21-S.Nelson for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brevin Jordan's 76-yard touchdown catch with 12:13 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Brevin Jordan76-yd TD catch76-yard touchdown catchfrom C.J. StroudLead never changed again+714–179 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 70 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Texans’s 41 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Texans 5.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's early-down pass rate, 72.5%, sat 18.8 points above their season number of 53.7% — they passed early by 2.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Browns4.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.4 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 70 snaps
Texans-1.7 ptsright on their number · +0.9 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 41 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 83%
Tendencies room →Browns72.5%off script — passed early · +18.8 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+2.05× that swing) · 51 early downs
Texans44.1%inside their normal wobble · −10.1 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 34 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 49%
Tendencies room →Browns25.0%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Texans22.7%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Browns50.0%inside their normal wobble · +13.2 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±25.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Browns36.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Texans11.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Browns4.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.4 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.76× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Texans13.5%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
CLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.5%, 18.8 points above their season mean of 53.7% and 2.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
34/46, 307 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-17.8 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
16/21, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.5 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brevin Jordan banked 13.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | +6.2 | 87% | — | 0% | — | 16/21, 274 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.0 | +8.3 | 70% | 91% | 32% | 51% | 1 car, 4 yd · 6/7, 96 yd, 1 TD |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 20.5 | +4.2 | 39% | 37% | 14% | 0% | 8 car, 26 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| David NjokuTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.3 | −1.5 | 72% | 73% | 26% | 48% | 7/11, 93 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 16.0 | +5.4 | 72% | 73% | 14% | 0% | 13 car, 66 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 4 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.6 | +13.0 | 50% | 45% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe FlaccoQB · Starter QB | 13.6 | −4.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 34/46, 307 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 13 yd |
| David BellWR · Featured Receiver | 13.4 | +1.4 | 61% | 54% | 19% | 14% | 8/8, 54 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +5.9 | 78% | 82% | 9% | 26% | 1/2, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | −0.8 | 32% | 37% | 14% | 16% | 4/6, 65 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +0.5 | 97% | 98% | 12% | 23% | 4/5, 59 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +2.9 | 76% | 68% | 14% | 14% | 1 car, 9 yd · 3/3, 44 yd |
| Jerome FordRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −3.1 | 61% | 63% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 17 yd · 4/4, 15 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.4 | 89% | 90% | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.3 | 43% | 32% | 9% | 0% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −3.5 | 33% | 36% | 9% | 4% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 20% | 23% | 2% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dameon PierceRB | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | 27% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrew BeckRB | 0.0 | −5.3 | 37% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Davis MillsQB | -0.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:13) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 9-B.Jordan for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:13 · Texans · 1st & 10 at HOU 24 · gained 76 · +5.70 EP · +21.1% win probability
148 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 76 yards from the HOU 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns0
Texans3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Browns6Texans3Browns7Texans3Browns7Texans9Browns7Texans10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Browns13Texans10Browns14Texans10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Browns14Texans16Browns14Texans17Browns14Texans23Browns14Texans24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, thrown away, it should have been intercepted.
Browns14Texans30Browns14Texans31Browns14Texans37Browns14Texans38Browns14Texans44Browns14Texans45Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 34/46 | 307 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −17.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 | −0.8 |
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Joe Flacco |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 7 | 11 | 93 | 0 | 26% | +1.9 |
| Harrison Bryant | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Juan Thornhill |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/21 | 274 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +14.5 |
| Davis Mills | 1/1 | 6 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_19_CLE_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 59 — over by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 13 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| +1.8 |
| −2.3 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 12% | +3.9 |
| David Bell | 8 | 8 | 54 | 0 | 19% | +3.4 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 9% | −0.9 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 14% | −3.9 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Sione Takitaki | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D'Anthony Bell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Adams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Kunaszyk | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 1 | −1.1 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 6 | 7 | 96 | 1 | 32% | +6.3 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 76 | 1 | 5% | +5.7 |
| John Metchie | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 14% | +1.8 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 9% | +4.3 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 9% | +0.0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −0.7 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14% | −1.8 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.8 |
| Andrew Beck | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond King | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| DeAndre Houston-Carson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| D'Angelo Ross | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Davis | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Boyd | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Barnett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
