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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Browns150 of 156 plays carry both curves
(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [95-D.Barnett] at HOU 18. 21-S.Nelson for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +22.7 for TexansExpected points +10.64 for TexansThe model had Texans 11 points higher than the market did.play 102
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:21CLE +23% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [95-D.Barnett] at HOU 18. 21-S.Nelson for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:13HOU +20% win prob(12:13) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 9-B.Jordan for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:11HOU +11% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 88-H.Bryant to HOU 28 for 47 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
1st · 5:29HOU +11% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 85-D.Njoku to HOU 30 for 45 yards (21-S.Nelson).
1st · 0:18HOU +10% win prob(:18) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:09HOU +9% win prob(7:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins to CLE 3 for 38 yards (0-G.Newsome).
2nd · 1:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brevin Jordan's 76-yard touchdown catch with 12:13 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:32Ka'imi Fairbairn·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+30–3
Texans ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Browns: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.25Texans: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Browns: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.60Texans: +0.60 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Browns: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.16Texans: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 70 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Texans’s 41 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Texans 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's early-down pass rate, 72.5%, sat 18.8 points above their season number of 53.7% — they passed early by 2.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.4 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.76× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Texans13.5%
right on their number · −3.9 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.5%, 18.8 points above their season mean of 53.7% and 2.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64Geron ChristianT · Every snap100%71 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%71 snaps
15Joe FlaccoQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
2Amari CooperWR · Full-time97%69 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Full-time94%67 snaps
66James HudsonT · Full-time93%66 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Full-time89%63 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Full-time85%60 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Heavy rotation72%51 snaps
18David BellWR · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational39%28 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational32%23 snaps
68Michael DunnG · Rotational25%18 snaps
84Jordan AkinsTE · Situational23%16 snaps
3Marquise GoodwinWR · Situational20%14 snaps
69Leroy WatsonT · Situational7%5 snaps
53Nick HarrisC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Luke WyplerCKahlef HailassieCBIsaiah McGuireDEDustin HopkinsKJeff DriskelQBPierre StrongRBCedric TillmanWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Sam KamaraOLBPJ WalkerQB
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive
70Juice ScruggsC · Every snap100%46 snaps
63Michael DeiterC · Every snap100%46 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Full-time87%40 snaps
77George FantT · Full-time87%40 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Full-time87%40 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Full-time85%39 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation78%36 snaps
8John Metchie IIIWR · Heavy rotation76%35 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation72%33 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation70%32 snaps
9Brevin JordanTE · Heavy rotation50%23 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational43%20 snaps
47Andrew BeckFB · Rotational37%17 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Rotational33%15 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational17%8 snaps
67Charlie HeckT · Situational15%7 snaps
60Dieter EiselenC · Situational13%6 snaps
74Josh JonesG · Situational13%6 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Situational13%6 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Situational13%6 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational11%5 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jerry HughesDETeair TartDTNick BroekerGCase KeenumQBEric SaubertTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:13) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 9-B.Jordan for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:13 · Texans · 1st & 10 at HOU 24 · gained 76 · +5.70 EP · +21.1% win probability
148 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 76 yards from the HOU 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
37%
Yards
680
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.3970%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.1058%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.1242%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.7489%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.3771%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 41
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Texans 48
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 13
Browns0Texans3
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Browns 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Browns6Texans3
Browns7Texans3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Texans 1
Browns7Texans9
Browns7Texans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Browns 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Browns13Texans10
Browns14Texans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Browns14Texans16
Browns14Texans17
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 30
Browns14Texans23
Browns14Texans24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Browns 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 44
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 43
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, thrown away, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Browns14Texans30
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Texans 34
Browns14Texans31
Browns14Texans37
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 34
Browns14Texans38
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Texans 37
The period ended4 plays, from midfield to the Browns 34
4th quarter32 plays
Browns14Texans44
Browns14Texans45
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 19
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 46
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Browns 39
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Texans 38
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
