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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Packers184 of 198 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage at GB 36. 26-D.Savage for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −25.3 for CowboysExpected points −10.07 for CowboysThe model had Packers 18 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00GB +25% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage at GB 36. 26-D.Savage for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:02DAL +11% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:02DAL +10% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to DAL 49 for 26 yards (1-J.Kearse) [92-D.Armstrong].
1st · 0:47GB +8% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at DAL 19. 23-J.Alexander to DAL 19 for no gain (3-B.Cooks).
2nd · 15:00DAL +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs to DAL 1 for 15 yards (26-D.Bland).
2nd · 4:54DAL +5% win prob(4:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 88-L.Musgrave ran ob at DAL 23 for 6 yards (26-D.Bland).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aaron Jones's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 7:12 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:12Aaron Jones·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
3rd3:07Tony Pollard·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right upright+634–16
3rd1:36Luke Musgrave·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+741–16
4th10:28Romeo Doubs·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+748–16
4th5:58Jake Ferguson·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point good+848–24
4th3:30Jake Ferguson·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point good+848–32
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryCowboys
Packers5–4Cowboys
416Total yards514
7.8Yards per play5.6
53%Success rate57%
60%Third-down rate63%
5Red-zone touchdowns4
10Explosive plays6
21First downs35
0Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.14 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.48Packers: +0.48 expected points added per play
+0.06Cowboys: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+1.14Packers: +1.14 expected points added per play
+0.02Cowboys: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Packers: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.19Cowboys: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 53 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 91 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys outgained Packers 514-416 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate, 74.6%, sat 17.8 points above their season number of 56.9% — they passed early by 2.2 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
71 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 70 dropbacks
Cowboys14.3%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 74.6%, 17.8 points above their season mean of 56.9% and 2.2 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%56 snaps
63Rasheed WalkerT · Every snap100%56 snaps
50Zach TomT · Full-time95%53 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Full-time95%53 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Full-time88%49 snaps
85Tucker KraftTE · Full-time80%45 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Heavy rotation70%39 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation63%35 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Heavy rotation61%34 snaps
13Dontayvion WicksWR · Heavy rotation55%31 snaps
11Jayden ReedWR · Rotational46%26 snaps
75Sean RhyanG · Rotational46%26 snaps
9Christian WatsonWR · Rotational41%23 snaps
80Bo MeltonWR · Rotational39%22 snaps
88Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational27%15 snaps
31Emanuel WilsonRB · Rotational27%15 snaps
89Ben SimsTE · Situational23%13 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational18%10 snaps
27Patrick TaylorRB · Situational11%6 snaps
70Royce NewmanG · Situational5%3 snaps
73Yosh NijmanT · Situational5%3 snaps
8Sean CliffordQB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
David LongCBBrenton Cox Jr.OLBAJ DillonRBBenny Sapp IIISSCaleb JonesTMalik HeathWR
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
73Tyler SmithT · Every snap100%95 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%95 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%95 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%95 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%95 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%95 snaps
3Brandin CooksWR · Full-time93%88 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Full-time92%87 snaps
87Jake FergusonTE · Heavy rotation79%75 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Heavy rotation71%67 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Heavy rotation66%63 snaps
18Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational38%36 snaps
23Rico DowdleRB · Situational22%21 snaps
86Luke SchoonmakerTE · Situational20%19 snaps
9KaVontae TurpinWR · Situational16%15 snaps
89Peyton HendershotTE · Situational3%3 snaps
40Hunter LuepkeRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Eric Scott Jr.CBViliami Fehoko Jr.DETyrus WheatDEAsim RichardsGTrey LanceQBMatt WaletzkoTJalen BrooksWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at DAL 19. 23-J.Alexander to DAL 19 for no gain (3-B.Cooks).
Q1 0:47 · Cowboys · 3rd & 5 at DAL 13 · gained nothing · -4.10 EP · −9.8% win probability
182 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 93 yards from the GB 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
51%
Yards
929
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR77+0.0775%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4046%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.5732%
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Packers6Cowboys0
Packers7Cowboys0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Cowboys 3
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Packers 49
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Cowboys 48
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Cowboys 13
The period ended3 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 6
2nd quarter55 plays
Packers13Cowboys0
Packers14Cowboys0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 1
Punt12 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Packers 35
Packers20Cowboys0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Cowboys 20
Packers26Cowboys0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Packers 40
Packers27Cowboys0
Packers27Cowboys6
Packers27Cowboys7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Packers 1
3rd quarter49 plays
Packers27Cowboys10
Field goal14 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Packers 16
Packers33Cowboys10
Packers34Cowboys10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Cowboys 9
Packers34Cowboys16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Packers 1
Packers40Cowboys16
Packers41Cowboys16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Cowboys 38
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 41
4th quarter56 plays
Packers47Cowboys16
Packers48Cowboys16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 3
Packers48Cowboys22
Packers48Cowboys24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Packers 2
Punt8 plays, from midfield to the Cowboys 49
Packers48Cowboys30
Packers48Cowboys32
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Packers 14
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 41
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Packers 22
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
