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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 14, 2024 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Wild Card
It turned at Q2 13:32, 3rd and 1, on Puka Nacua — 14.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 13:32, Rams +14.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:32 · 3rd and 1
Puka Nacua
Rams
(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Lions won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Rams at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.19 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
David Montgomery's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:33 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryLions
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Lions, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 55 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Lions’s 52 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Lions 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Rams8.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.2 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 55 snaps
Lions-0.0 ptsright on their number · +3.9 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 83%
Tendencies room →Rams62.2%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 45 early downs
Lions51.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 53%
Tendencies room →Rams18.4%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Lions16.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.6%.
Lions—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Rams26.7%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Lions42.1%inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Rams16.7%inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Lions18.4%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
LA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.2 pts, 11.2 points above their season mean of -3.0 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
25/36, 367 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
18.6 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected
Passing · DET
22/27, 277 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
11.2 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
7/9 for 110 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jahmyr Gibbs banked 5.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.0 | +3.6 | 93% | 97% | 35% | 46% | 7/9, 110 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 16.8 | +5.3 | 34% | 33% | 15% | 0% | 8 car, 25 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 43 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 14.8 | +2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/27, 277 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, -3 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 13.8 | −3.6 | 54% | 53% | 4% | 0% | 14 car, 57 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.0 | −1.3 | 86% | 97% | 27% | 49% | 5/7, 80 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +2.5 | 80% | 87% | 12% | 3% | 3/3, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.3 | 70% | 87% | 8% | 13% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 41% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:32 · Rams · 3rd & 1 at 50 · gained 50 · +4.76 EP · +14.1% win probability
141 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 149 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 79 yards from the LA 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
Lions6Rams0Lions7Rams3Lions7Rams3Lions13Rams3Lions14How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams9Lions14Rams10Lions14Rams10Lions20Rams10Lions21How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Rams16Lions21Rams17Lions21Rams17Lions24Rams20Lions24Rams23Lions24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/36 | 367 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +18.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Puka Nacua |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 10 | 181 | 1 | 29% | +14.6 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 4 | 5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/27 | 277 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +11.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_19_LA_DET
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 47 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -2 |
| -2.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| +1.7 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 3% | +3.6 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 9% | +2.1 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 6% | +2.2 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 9 | 27 | 0 | 26% | −1.2 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| John Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russ Yeast | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Brown | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cobie Durant | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 9 | 110 | 0 | 35% | +6.6 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 27% | +3.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 15% | +1.5 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 12% | +2.4 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Anzalone | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 4 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
