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2023 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 14, 2024 · Ford Field

Los Angeles Rams

23

Detroit LionsWinner

24

DET -3.5 no coverU 52.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 13:32, DET +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑LA ↓
Q2 · 13:32LA 9 — DET 14LA ball · 3rd & 1DET 85%

(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 13:32DET +15% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 6:36DET +12% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 45 for 35 yards (6-I.Melifonwu).
  3. Q4 · 4:24LA +11% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 20-R.Rivers. PENALTY on LA-79-R.Havenstein, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 34 - No Play.
  4. Q3 · 8:45DET +10% win prob(8:45) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:33DET Touchdown

    (9:33) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 0 — DET 7
  2. Q1 · 4:29LA Field goal

    (4:29) 8-B.Maher 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — DET 7
  3. Q1 · 1:35DET Touchdown

    (1:35) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 3 — DET 14
  4. Q2 · 13:32LA Touchdown

    (13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 10 — DET 14
  5. Q2 · 7:16DET Touchdown

    (7:16) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 10 — DET 21
  6. Q2 · 4:11LA Touchdown

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 17 — DET 21
  7. Q3 · 8:45DET Field goal

    (8:45) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: LA 17 — DET 24
  8. Q3 · 2:36LA Field goal

    (2:36) 8-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 20 — DET 24
  9. Q4 · 8:13LA Field goal

    (8:13) 8-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 23 — DET 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsLions
Offensive plays5552
Total yards425 (edge)337
Yards per play7.7 (edge)6.5
Expected points added / play0.29 (edge)0.19
Success rate45%50% (edge)
Dropback rate69%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.49 (edge)0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.16-0.05 (edge)
Third downs3/93/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps1922 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

25/36, 367 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.6 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

22/27, 277 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.2 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

13 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

14 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

9/10 for 181 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 14.6 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

7/9 for 110 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 2512755:30Touchdown +7
2LALA 2512545:04Field goal +3
3DETDET 257702:55Touchdown +7
4LALA 288723:07Touchdown +7
5DETDET 2513696:12Touchdown +7
6LALA 258703:10Touchdown +7
7DETDET 259343:03Punt
8LALA 52130:59End of half
9LALA 256131:43Punt
10DETDET 209444:36Field goal +3
11LALA 2511666:08Field goal +3
12DETDET 256132:40Punt
13LALA 1013796:43Field goal +3
14DETDET 25560:52Punt
15LALA 87583:11Punt
16DETDET 177264:07End of game

9 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 79 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford25/3636720218.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams13614.70-0.9
Ronnie Rivers393.00-0.7
Puka Nacua1-2-2.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua910181129%14.6
Demarcus Robinson3644018%1.7
Tutu Atwell113813%3.6
Ronnie Rivers333509%2.1
Davis Allen222806%2.2
Cooper Kupp5927026%-1.2
Kyren Williams11903%0.8
Ben Skowronek11503%-0.2
Tyler Higbee01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones452.000
Quentin Lake450.000
Michael Hoecht240.500
John Johnson420.000
Russ Yeast410.000
Christian Rozeboom220.000
Jonah Williams210.000
Bobby Brown120.000
Cobie Durant210.000
Aaron Donald120.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff22/2727710311.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery14574.11-0.1
Jahmyr Gibbs8253.11-1.0
Jared Goff3-3-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown79110035%6.6
Josh Reynolds5780027%3.6
Jahmyr Gibbs4443015%1.5
Jameson Williams221908%1.3
Sam LaPorta3314112%2.4
David Montgomery111104%1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson430.000
Brian Branch340.001
Alex Anzalone520.000
Aidan Hutchinson422.000
Jack Campbell410.000
Kindle Vildor120.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu210.000
Derrick Barnes110.000
Kerby Joseph200.001
Jalen Reeves-Maybin110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -3.5
Closing total
52.5
LA moneyline
+136
DET moneyline
-162

Lions closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 47 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
LA 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Dan Campbell