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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 24, Rams 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 13:32, 3rd and 1, on Puka Nacua — 14.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:32 · 3rd and 1
Puka Nacua
Rams
(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Detroit Lions 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 13:32, Rams +14.6% win probability on one snap.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Puka NacuaRamsQ4 6:36(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 45 for 35 yards (6-I.Melifonwu).
11.8pts
Matthew StaffordLionsQ4 4:24(4:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 20-R.Rivers. PENALTY on LA-79-R.Havenstein, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 34 - No Play.
10.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Lions won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Rams at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.19 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Rams143 of 149 plays carry both curves
(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.6 for LionsExpected points −4.76 for LionsThe model had Rams 5 points higher than the market did.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:32DET +15% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:36DET +12% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 45 for 35 yards (6-I.Melifonwu).
4th · 4:24LA +11% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 20-R.Rivers. PENALTY on LA-79-R.Havenstein, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 34 - No Play.
3rd · 8:45DET +10% win prob(8:45) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.
4th · 2:38DET +9% win prob(2:38) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to DET 32 for 1 yard (53-E.Jones; 56-C.Rozeboom).
4th · 5:53DET +8% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 20-R.Rivers to DET 40 for 15 yards (32-B.Branch).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:33 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:33David Montgomery·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:29Brett Maher·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap C.Tinker+33–7
2nd13:32Puka Nacua·50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+710–14
2nd7:16Sam LaPorta·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+710–21
2nd4:11Tutu Atwell·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+717–21
3rd8:45Michael Badgley·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap J.McQuaide+317–24
3rd2:36Brett Maher·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap C.Tinker+320–24
4th8:13Brett Maher·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap C.Tinker+323–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryLions
Rams4–4Lions
425Total yards337
7.7Yards per play6.5
45%Success rate50%
33%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays8
19First downs22
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Lions, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Rams: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Rams: +0.49 expected points added per play
+0.37Lions: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Rams: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.05Lions: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 55 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Lions’s 52 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Lions 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Lions18.4%
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.2 pts, 11.2 points above their season mean of -3.0 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
77Alaric JacksonT · Every snap100%58 snaps
73Steve AvilaG · Every snap100%58 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%58 snaps
69Kevin DotsonG · Every snap100%58 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Every snap100%58 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%58 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
15Demarcus RobinsonWR · Full-time86%50 snaps
17Puka NacuaWR · Full-time84%49 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
87Davis AllenTE · Rotational33%19 snaps
20Ronnie RiversRB · Rotational31%18 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Situational16%9 snaps
5Tutu AtwellWR · Situational14%8 snaps
24Royce FreemanRB · Situational3%2 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jordan FullerFSTroy ReederILBOchaun MathisOLBZach EvansRBWarren McClendon Jr.TTyler JohnsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Brian AllenCByron YoungOLBCarson WentzQB
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%56 snaps
60Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%56 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%56 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%56 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%56 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time93%52 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Full-time86%48 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Full-time80%45 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation70%39 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Heavy rotation54%30 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Rotational41%23 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Rotational34%19 snaps
45Jason CabindaFB · Situational13%7 snaps
13Craig ReynoldsRB · Situational13%7 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational7%4 snaps
80Antoine GreenWR · Situational5%3 snaps
19Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Situational4%2 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Steven GilmoreCBCharles HarrisDEBrodric MartinDTTracy Walker IIIFSJulian OkwaraOLBHendon HookerQBKalif RaymondWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:32 · Rams · 3rd & 1 at 50 · gained 50 · +4.76 EP · +14.1% win probability
141 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 149 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 79 yards from the LA 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
149 of 149 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
149
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
45%
Yards
759
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.2969%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1870%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1127%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Rams0Lions6
Rams0Lions7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 1
Rams3Lions7
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Lions 6
Rams3Lions13
Rams3Lions14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 10
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams9Lions14
Rams10Lions14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 41 to midfield
Rams10Lions20
Rams10Lions21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Rams16Lions21
Rams17Lions21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Lions 38
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Rams 11
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 39
Rams17Lions24
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Rams 29
Rams20Lions24
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Lions 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 39
4th quarter37 plays
Punt1 play
Rams23Lions24
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Lions 11
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Lions 34
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 17 to the Lions 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
