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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 13, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
DolphinsMiami7
BY 19final margin
ChiefsKansas City26
Miami Dolphins 7 at Kansas City Chiefs 26. Final.
Chiefs -4.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Wild Card
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Dolphins 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 4:35, 4th and 1, on Tua Tagovailoa — 10.7 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:35 · 4th and 1
Tua Tagovailoa
Chiefs
(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (22-T.McDuffie).
-6°F
Chiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Kansas City Chiefs 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:35, Chiefs +10.7% win probability on one snap.
10.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyreek HillDolphinsQ2 14:11(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
10.1pts
Patrick MahomesChiefsQ2 9:42(9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley).
8.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Dolphins at 1 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Dolphins169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (22-T.McDuffie).
Swing +10.7 for ChiefsExpected points +3.05 for ChiefsThe model had Dolphins 5 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:35MIA +11% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (22-T.McDuffie).
2nd · 14:11KC +10% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 9:42KC +9% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley).
1st · 14:49KC +7% win prob(14:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 42 for 11 yards (29-B.Jones).
2nd · 1:14KC +7% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at MIA 17 for 39 yards (4-K.Kohou) [29-B.Jones].
1st · 3:11MIA +7% win prob(3:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Edwards [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC 42. 21-M.Edwards to KC 42 for no gain (10-T.Hill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashee Rice's 11-yard touchdown catch with 11:10 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:10Rashee Rice·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
2nd14:55Harrison Butker·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–10
2nd14:11Tyreek Hill·53-yd TD catch53-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+77–10
2nd7:39Harrison Butker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+37–13
2nd0:22Harrison Butker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+37–16
3rd7:52Harrison Butker·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+37–19
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Dolphins: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.05Chiefs: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Dolphins: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.33Chiefs: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Dolphins: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.32Chiefs: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 75 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 1, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's blitz rate sent, 48.8%, sat 20.6 points above their season number of 28.3% — they sent pressure by 2.2 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Chiefs9.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteMIA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.8%, 20.6 points above their season mean of 28.3% and 2.2 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes scrambles+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley).
Q2 9:42 · Chiefs · 4th & 5 at MIA 38 · gained 28 · +4.56 EP · +12.9% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 72 yards from the KC 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
34%
Yards
673
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1465%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.3884%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR18-0.1322%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.1736%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.4464%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0270%
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Dolphins0Chiefs6
Dolphins0Chiefs7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Dolphins 11
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 28
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Chiefs 48
Intercepted8 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 44
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Dolphins 10
2nd quarter53 plays
Dolphins0Chiefs10
Field goal2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Dolphins6Chiefs10
Dolphins7Chiefs10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Dolphins7Chiefs13
Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Dolphins 8
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Chiefs 44
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Dolphins 48
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 22
Dolphins7Chiefs16
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Dolphins 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Dolphins 48
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 27
Dolphins7Chiefs19
Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Dolphins 3
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Dolphins 39
4th quarter50 plays
Dolphins7Chiefs25
Dolphins7Chiefs26
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 3
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chiefs 25
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 27
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Chiefs 44
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Dolphins 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Chiefs 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
