2023 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 13, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -4.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓-4°F · 19 mphChiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Kansas City Chiefs 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:35, MIA +11% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:35MIA 7 — KC 13MIA ball · 4th & 1KC 73%

(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (22-T.McDuffie).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:35MIA +11% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (22-T.McDuffie).
Q2 · 14:11KC +10% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 · 9:42KC +9% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley).
Q1 · 14:49KC +7% win prob(14:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 42 for 11 yards (29-B.Jones).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:10KC Touchdown
(11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — KC 7
Q2 · 14:55KC Field goal
(14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: MIA 0 — KC 10
Q2 · 14:11MIA Touchdown
(14:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — KC 10
Q2 · 7:39KC Field goal
(7:39) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: MIA 7 — KC 13
Q2 · 0:22KC Field goal
(:22) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: MIA 7 — KC 16
Q3 · 7:52KC Field goal
(7:52) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: MIA 7 — KC 19
Q4 · 11:12KC Touchdown
(11:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — KC 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Chiefs
Offensive plays	59	75
Total yards	264	409 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	32%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	1/12	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/41, 262 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

20/39, 199 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-13.9 expected points added · -16.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

24 att, 89 yds, 1 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

8 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

8/12 for 130 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/10 for 71 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 31	11	69	3:55	Touchdown +7
2	MIA	MIA 25	5	8	2:30	Punt
3	KC	KC 44	4	4	1:28	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 11	7	33	4:04	Interception
5	KC	KC 42	10	48	3:12	Field goal +3
6	MIA	MIA 38	4	62	0:50	Touchdown +7
7	KC	KC 20	13	82	6:25	Field goal +3
8	MIA	MIA 35	7	21	3:05	Turnover on downs
9	KC	KC 45	4	7	1:29	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 20	4	-5	1:19	Punt
11	KC	KC 39	7	47	1:25	Field goal +3
12	MIA	MIA 31	3	17	0:18	End of half
13	MIA	MIA 21	5	6	1:39	Punt
14	KC	KC 28	13	69	5:32	Field goal +3
15	MIA	MIA 25	9	9	4:42	Punt
16	KC	KC 28	15	64	7:01	Touchdown +7
17	MIA	MIA 25	11	58	4:44	Turnover on downs
18	KC	KC 22	4	5	1:02	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 29	12	27	1:36	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 44	5	14	2:36	Fumble
21	MIA	MIA 43	4	28	1:08	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 82 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	20/39	199	1	1	2	-13.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Raheem Mostert	8	33	4.1	-0.4
Tua Tagovailoa	3	25	8.3	1.6
Jaylen Waddle	1	9	9.0	0.8
Devon Achane	6	9	1.5	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	5	8	62	1	21%	-2.4
Cedrick Wilson	3	7	37	0	18%	0.9
River Cracraft	2	3	33	0	8%	1.4
Jaylen Waddle	2	5	31	0	13%	-1.0
Devon Achane	3	6	21	0	16%	-1.1
Durham Smythe	3	4	12	0	11%	-3.6
Jeffery Wilson	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.8
Braxton Berrios	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1
Raheem Mostert	1	2	-3	0	5%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
DeShon Elliott	3	6	0
Duke Riley	1	8	0
Brandon Jones	4	4	0
Kader Kohou	5	1	0
David Long Jr.	4	2	0
Malik Reed	1	4	0
Zach Sieler	0	4	1
Emmanuel Ogbah	2	2	1
Jalen Ramsey	3	1	1
Eli Apple	4	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/41	262	1	0	0	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	24	89	3.7	1	-4.1
Patrick Mahomes	2	41	20.5	0	6.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	7	21	3.0	0	-3.5
Mecole Hardman	1	-4	-4.0	0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashee Rice	8	12	130	1	35%	10.0
Travis Kelce	7	10	71	0	29%	4.4
Noah Gray	1	1	20	0	3%	1.9
Justin Watson	2	2	20	0	6%	1.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	2	8	0	6%	0.3
Richie James	1	2	6	0	6%	0.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	1	5	0	3%	1.7
Mecole Hardman	1	3	3	0	9%	-3.7
Isiah Pacheco	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Bolton	5	5	0.0	0	0
George Karlaftis	3	3	1.5	0	0
Trent McDuffie	3	1	0.0	0	2
L'Jarius Sneed	4	0	0.0	0	2
Drue Tranquill	4	0	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	3	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Pennel	2	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	1	1	0.0	1	1
Chamarri Conner	1	1	0.0	0	0
Willie Gay	0	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -4.5
Closing total: 43.5
MIA moneyline: +190
KC moneyline: -230

Chiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 33 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: -4°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: MIA 6 days · KC 6 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Andy Reid

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.